Population and Economic Analysis Flashcards
What’s the difference between a CBSA and a Metropolitan Statistical Area?
A Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) has a core area of at least 10,000 population, whereas a Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) has a core of at least 50,000.
Both consist of the core and surrounding communities.
What is the optimum size of a census tract?
4,000
in practice, they range from 1,200 to 8,000
Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)
core + adjacent communities
not strict definition of an urban area, but an administrative area
collections of counties consisting of a core county (with a major city) and adjacent counties that are related in terms of employment, commuting, etc.
What is the Hierarchy of Census Geographic Entities?
- Nation (zip code tabulation areas, urban areas, CBSAs)
- Regions
- Divisions
- States (school districts, congressional districts, urban growth areas, state legislative districts, public use microdata areas, places)
- Counties (voting districts, traffic analysis zones, county subdivisions - subminor civil divisions)
- Census Tracts
- Block Groups
- Census Blocks (AIANNH Areas: American Indian, Alaska native, native Hawaiian areas)
Combined Statistical Areas
When core based statistical areas are large enough so that the urban metropolitan areas run into each other, they are combined and become megapolitan areas
Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas
core + surrounding counties
Metro - core county has a population of at least 50,000
Micro - core county has 10,000-50,000
surrounding counties added when employment and commuting relate them.
Principle City
Metro/micropolitan
Urban areas can have multiple incorporated ares, principle city is the largest in a CBSA, but there can be several principle cities.
Blocks
are small in area; a block in a city is bounded on all sides by streets
usually only have counts of people by ethnicity and age group
Block groups
are statistical divisions of census tracts; they generally contain 600-3,000 people, and are used to present data and control block numbering
Census Tracts
generally have population size between 1,200-8,000 people with an optimum size of 4,000 people.
has most information at city level - population, household information and economic information.
what is the main purpose of the census?
main purpose of the census is to define the electoral districts to find congress representatives
American Community Survey (ACS)
A rolling survey done every year, but with a different group of people.
replace the long-form of the census that was used to collect socio-economic data.
how do you gain statistical reliability from ACS data?
Take an average, typically 5 years
what are the key population drivers?
natural change: births - deaths
net migration: inmigration - outmigration
step-down method
aka ratio method
compares the population of a smaller entity to that of a larger entity and assumes the share remains the same.
takes an estimate for a larger area and uses a proportion or ratio to estimate the amount for a smaller area.
auxiliary data can be used to adjust the estimate (utility hookups, drivers licenses, etc.)
Population pyramid
uses to show sex and age and characterize whether the community is aging and young. implications for things like social services, retirement, medicare, daycares, schools etc.
total fertility rate (TFR)
a measure of the degree to which the population replaces itself.
number of births / female population of child bearing age
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crude birth rate
total number of births / population
death rate
number of deaths / total population
What is the typical replacement rate?
2.1
trend extrapolation
Take the past and project it into the future as if it would continue indefinitely
Linear model: Pop(t) = a + bt
Exponential: Pop(t) = pop(0).e^bt
Gompertz: Pop(t) = K.e^(-ln(K/Pop0)e^(-ct))
ratio method
take a projection from a different area, typically a larger area, and then scale it down to a smaller area
Cohort survival
Fundamental Population Equation
Pop(t+1) = Pop(t) + Births(t to t+1) - Deaths(t to t+1) + Net migration (t to t+1)
each cohort is an age group. applies a survival rate to each cohort and a birth rate to each parent-aged cohort and then adds the net migration to get the population at the end of a time period. The population at the end of the time period (10 years) becomes the population at the beginning of the next time period (20 years).
Linear model
Pop(t) = a + bt
population growth is typically not a linear form
Exponential
Pop(t) = pop(0).e^bt
a more curved trendline than linear, would better represent than a linear model.
Gompertz curve
Pop(t) = K.e^(-ln(K/Pop0)e^(-ct))
a growth curve from biology, has a carrying capacity, an S shape curve that has an increase in growth and then levels off at a carrying capacity
Allocation Methods
Ratio Method (Step-down method): smaller area proportional to a larger area
Distributed housing unit method: Pop(t) = Housing Units(t) x Occupancy Rate x Household Size
Distributed housing unit method
Pop(t) = Housing Units(t) x Occupancy Rate x Average Household Size
uses most up to date housing information and then uses a simple formula
what is the weakest part of the fundamental population formula?
Net migration. we have data for births and deaths, but the US does not have a good way to track migration.
When is the distributed housing method used?
to calculate population in between census years
what are the main principals of economic analysis for urban or regional level?
follow money and jobs - selling goods, buying goods, employing people, paying salaries. how does money flow and stay in or leave the region?
direct (immediate) and indirect (ongoing) effects: multiplier - critical in measuring the impact of new activities.
economic impact analysis; major component of cost benefit analysis (what will a new infrastructure project effect on economy - job creation (direct - construction, indirect - retail, real estate)
Economic Base Analysis
separates the economy into Basic and Non-Basic and uses the economic base multiplier to estimate changes in the economy.
total economic activity = basic + non-basic
theory-based model based on keynesian demand-driven economy
Basic economic activity
basic = brings in money from the outside (exports, tourism)
Non-Basic economic activity
recirculates the outside money (local services, retail, banking)
Economic Base Multiplier
multiplier = total economic activity / basic economic activity
(in practice use employment and jobs, rather than dollars)
used to estimate the effect (how much additional value is created in the region) if an additional dollar of basic activity is added. multiplies the money
The indirect effect of $1 additional basic (direct) activity on the economy = multiplier - 1
How would you used economic base analysis in practice?
- determine basic and non-basic sectors
- Use employment data
- SIC (old) and NAICS (new) sector classifications - Methods
- empirical approach (makes assumptions about which industries fit into which category)
- minimum requirements (compare to a reference)
- Location quotient (most commonly used approach)
What is the difference between basic and non-basic employment?
basic employment, or export employment, brings in money from outside the region.
non-basic, or local/service employment, recirculates the money within the region.
Location Quotient
Used to categorize basic and non-basic sectors for economic base analysis, a means to do economic base analysis.
Principle
- relative share of sector in region compared to relative share of sector in nation.
- based on employment figures (e.g. County business patterns)
The ratio of the relative share of a sector’s employment in the region to the relative share of employment in the country.
LQi = (Locali/Local)/(Nationali/National)
- LQi > 1, is an export/basic sector
- LQi < 1, is a local/non-basic sector
- use fraction over 1 to estimate basic employment
What kind of data is used to determine the location quotient?
Employment data, such as contained in the Country Business Patterns.
Shift Share Analysis
A description of what is going on in the economy
an accounting device
Decomposition of Employment Growth by sector
- national component (share)
- industry component (mix)
- regional component (shift)
Leading and Lagging Sectors
- separate out national and industry trends
- use regional shift to target leading sectors
Shift-Share Components
By Sector i:
- Shift Share (SSi) = National Share (NSi) + Industry Mix (IMi) + Regional Shift (RSi)
Components
- NSi = Local Employment(i, t-1) x National Employment(t)/National Employment(t-1)
- IMi = Local Employment(i, t-1) x National Employment(i,t)/National Employment(i, t-1) - NSi
- RSi = Local Employment(i, t-1) x [Local Employment(i,t)/Local Employment(i, t-1) - National Employment(i,t)/National Employment(i,t-1)]
The employment growth in a sector in a region between two periods is split into national share, industry mix, and regional shift.
The National Share takes the total national employment growth rate and applying that to the employment in the region.
The Industry Mix takes the national growth rate for that particular sector and then applies it to the local employment and then subtracts the national share from that. It reflects how the industrial make-up in the particular sector may be different from the nation at large.
The Regional Shift takes the local employment, difference between the sectoral growth in the region and the nation. A negative result would point to a lagging sector and a positive result would indicate a leading sector for the particular region.
National Share
A component in shift-share analysis
The National Share takes the total national employment growth rate and applying that to the employment in the region.
NSi = Local Employment(i, t-1) x National Employment(t)/National Employment(t-1)
Industry Mix
a component in shift-share analysis
The Industry Mix takes the national growth rate for that particular sector and then applies it to the local employment and then subtracts the national share from that. It reflects how the industrial make-up in the particular sector may be different from the nation at large.
IMi = Local Employment(i, t-1) x National Employment(i,t)/National Employment(i, t-1) - NSi
Regional Shift
a component in shift-share analysis
The Regional Shift takes the local employment, difference between the sectoral growth in the region and the nation. A negative result would point to a lagging sector and a positive result would indicate a leading sector for the particular region.
RSi = Local Employment(i, t-1) x [Local Employment(i,t)/Local Employment(i, t-1) - National Employment(i,t)/National Employment(i,t-1)]
Input-Output Analysis
General Equilibrium Model of an Economy (Leontieff)
- many assumptions
- fixed technology
- total production = intermediate production + final demand
Input-Output Tables (Bureau of economic analysis)
- transactions table = inter-industry flows (who buys from whom)
-technical coefficients table = proportion of inputs
Input-Output Coefficients
Proportion of Inter-Sector flow
- Xi = output of sector i
- Xij = output of sector i sold to sector j
- aij = Xij / Xj = technical coefficient amount of inputs into j that comes from i
Input output equation
- X = AX + y
- total output = intermediate output + final demand
Input-Output Multipliers
Effect of Change in Final Demand in Total Output ( ΔY)
- ΔX = (I - A)^(-1) ΔY
-ΔX = ΔY + A ΔY + A^2 ΔY + A^3 ΔY +…
- total effect = direct effect (ΔY) + indirect effects
- total effect /direct effect = I/O multiplier
multiple effects:
ΔY: immediate or direct effect
multipliers in practice (planners rely on multipliers that have been computed for different scenarios)
- RIMS, IMPLAN, REMI, …
for example, a new transit infrastructure investment, light rail, thee construction requires inputs from construction sector, construction workers will spend their money in local restaurants, they will need housing and spend rent, flows back into banking sector. How do we track all of these transactions? thats part of the indirect effect. streams get smaller and smaller the further out.
Computable General Equilibrium Models
an extension of input-output analysis that relax some of the assumptions.
Econometric Models
an extension of input-output analysis
incorporate dynamic effects (over time)
incorporate various feedback effects
Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II)
provides readily computed multiplier effects for various kinds of impacts - new sectors, transportation investment, new stadiums, etc.
What are the components of total production in input-output analysis?
total production is decomposed into intermediate production (production to make other products) and final demand.
What is a transactions table in input-output analysis?
The transactions table shows the inter-industry flows, i.e. which sector buys from what other sector(s) and how much.
What are some key trends from the 2020 US Census?
Our country is becoming older and more diverse.
The non-Hispanic white population will become a minority (47%) by 2050, increasing more slowly than other racial and ethnic groups.
The nation’s older population will more than double in size from 2005 through 2050.
What were some of the changes in the 2010 Decennial Census?
One of the largest changes is the discontinuation of the long form. With the long form eliminated, households only received the short form with 10 questions.
To avoid undercounting, the Census Bureau enlisted thousands of groups such as churches, charities, and other organizations to promote the importance of participating in the count.
What were some key changes in the The 2000 Decennial Census of Population and Housing from prior surveys?
The 2000 Decennial Census of Population and Housing was mailed to each household using the 1990 Census address information, U.S. Postal Service files, and, in metropolitan statistical areas, the local update of Census addresses.
Approximately 17% of households received the long form, which represented the sample population.
Approximately 83% of households received the short form. The 2000 Census short form was the “shortest” since 1820. It addressed only seven subjects: name, age, gender, race, Hispanic ethnicity, relationships between household members, and whether the home was rented or owned by the householder.
Additionally, the 2000 Census for the first time allowed the respondents to select more than one race that they identify as.
What was the response rate to the US Census in 1990 and 2000?
65% of U.S. households responded to the initial Census by mail.
What was the response rate to the US census in 2010?
74% of U.S. households responded by mail. This was then followed up with phone calls and in-person census workers.
What was different about response rates for the 2020 census?
80% of households that self-responded in 2020 responded online
Urbanized Area
The Census Bureau defines an urbanized area wherever it finds an urban nucleus of 50,000 or more people. These urbanized areas may or may not contain any individual cities of 50,000 or more. In general, they must have a core with a population density of 1,000 persons per square mile and may contain adjoining territory with at least 500 persons per square mile. Urbanized areas have been delineated using the same basic threshold (50,000 population) for each decennial Census since 1950, but procedures for delineating the urban fringe are more liberal today. In 2000, 68% of Americans lived in 452 urbanized areas.
Urban Cluster
Urban clusters have at least 2,500 but less than 50,000 persons and a population density of 1,000 persons per square mile. This delineation of built-up territory around small towns and cities is new for the 2000 Census. In 2000, 11% of the U.S. population lived in 3,158 urban clusters.
Metropolitan Statistical Area
(MSA) includes at least one city with 50,000 or more inhabitants, or an urbanized area (of at least 50,000 inhabitants), and a total metropolitan population of at least 100,000.
Micropolitan Statistical Area
(MSA) has a population of more than 10,000 people and less than 50,000 people. This includes a central county and adjacent counties that have a high degree of social and economic integration as measured by commuting.
Census Designated Places
(CDP) is the equivalent of an incorporated place for data purposes. This is for settled concentrations of population that are not incorporated.
Consolidated MSA
(CMSA) is made up of several PMSA’s. An example is the Dallas-Fort Worth Consolidated Metropolitan Area. Dallas and Fort Worth are each primary metropolitan statistical areas.
Core Based Statistical Area
(CBSA) is defined by the US Office and Budget to provide data description for areas where there is a core area with at least 10,000 people that when combined with other adjacent communities is socially and economically integrated.
Megalopolis
In 1961, Jean Gottman published Megalopolis, a book about the 300-mile-long urban area between Boston and Washington D.C. The Oxford Dictionary of Geography defines the term as “any many-centered, multi-city, urban area of more than 10 million inhabitants, generally dominated by low-density settlement and complex networks of economic specialization.” The term megacity refers specifically to the megalopolis areas with more than 10 million people.
Census Tract
Census tract typically has a population between 2,000 and 8,000 people.
It is the smallest area where all information is released.
Census Block
Census block is the smallest level at which the Census data is collected. There are typically 400 housing units per block.
Census Block Group
A group of Census Blocks. They generally contain 600-3,000 people, and are used to present data and control block numbering.
Minor Civil Division
(MCD) is a unit only used in 29 states and usually corresponds to a municipality.
Census County Divisions
are used in the 21 states that do not have MCDs.
Tribal Designated Statistical Area
is a unit drawn by tribes that do not have a recognized land area. These are defined independently of the standard county-based census delineations.
Threshold Population
is a term that is under a number of government programs to determine program eligibility. For example, the Phase II Stormwater requirements automatically apply if a city meets the minimum threshold population. Another example is the Threshold Population to qualify to receive Community Development Block Grant Funds.
Public Use Microdata Sample and Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMS)
refer to data available through the American Community Survey.
Trends identified at the 2010 census
The nation has grown from 76 million people in 1900 to 308 million people in 2010.
More than 27 million people were added during the 2000s.
Of the 50 largest central cities in America, all but five saw their populations grow between the 2000 and 2010 censuses.
The US continued to urbanize, with 81% of the US population living in urban areas.
What were the fasting growing states (2010 census)
Nevada (35%), Arizona (25%), and Utah (24%)
What were the top ten fastest growing metropolitan areas between 2000 and 2010?
- Palm Coast, Florida
- St. George, Utah
- Las Vegas-Paradise, Nevada
- Raleigh-Cary, North Carolina
- Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida
- Provo-Orem, Utah
- Greeley, Colorado
- Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas
- Myrtle Beach-North Myrtle Beach-Conway, South Carolina
- Bend, Oregon
Which was the only state between 2000 and 2010 that lost population?
Michigan
What was the average household size in 2010?
2.59
the average household size went down from 3.1 in 1970 to 2.59 in 2010.
What was the median age in 2010?
37.2 years of age
(rose from prior census)
When did the American Community Survey begin on a nationwide basis?
2005
How. is the American Community Survey distributed?
The survey reaches 2.5% of the nation’s population each year (1 in 40 addresses, approximately 3 million households). The survey rotates annually so that no household receives the survey more than once every five years.
When was American Community Survey data available for all areas with a population of 65,000 or more?
2006
How is the income category different on the long-form and int he American Community Survey?
ACS asks for income received in the last 12 months, which is done on a rolling basis, rather than just for the year preceding the census year.
How is the confidentiality of respondents to the Census protected?
Protected under Title 13 of the U.S. Code. However, individual respondent information is released by the National Archives after 72 years.
Baby Boomers
People born in the United States between 1946 and 1964 are known as Baby Boomers. The name “baby boomers” came about because there was an exceptionally high birth rate during the period. As this large group ages, issues of long-term care, accessibility, and social security have become more prevalent in public policy.
Generation X
These people were born between 1965 and 1976, which was a period of low birth rates.
Generation Y (aka Echo Boom or Millennials)
These are the children of the baby boomers. These people were born between approximately 1977 and 2000. The exact years of this generation vary depending on the source. These are generally children born in the 1980s and 1990s.
Generation Z
These are the children born after 2000. The exact years of this generation vary depending on the source.
Lost Generation
born 1883 - 1900
Greatest Generation
born 1901 - 1927
Silent Generation
born 1928 - 1945
Generation Alpha
born early 2010s-mid 2020s
