Population Flashcards
How many countries have what % of the world’s population
16, over 60%
What countries have the 2 largest world populations
India and China at 1.4b, India more likely to grow more as demographic dividend whilst China’s ageing population
What country has the 3rd largest world population
USA at 345m
What country has the most rapid population growth
Nigeria, by 2050 1/5 new people are Nigerian
Malthus
1798 Essay on the Principle of Population, point of crisis as arithmetic food production and exponential population growth, positive natural checks, negative checks prevent
Neo-Malthusian
Club of Rome: indefinite economic growth as limited natural resource availability
Boserup
1965: necessity is the mother of invention, human ingenuity can alter carrying capacity e.g. GMO
Simon
Contemporary American economist, human material welfare increasing with population
What range do the 2100 population forecasts have
9.9b, 2015 World Population Prospects report, 80% chance 9.6-12.3b
1973-2022 global population trends
Significant SE Asia growth (India dd, China 421), ripple effect in vicinity of growth hubs (Spain, Scandinavia), America has balance or decline everywhere except central, not Russia (HIV, Putin)
2017-2021 global migration trends
Into Spain, from Kiribati, from Mexico (esp to Canada), from equator (desertifying), into HICs e.g. Ireland, from SE Asia (growth), from Pakistan (drought, climate change)
DTM stage 1
Babies in the bank, none
DTM stage 2
Haiti early, Sierra Leone, AID, from substinence
DTM stage 3
Demographic dividend, India cusp of 4, Nigeria
DTM stage 4
Brazil, economic burden of kids, era of balance
DTM stage 5
1.7 fertility rate, delayed degenerative, pro natal, migration can counter, Japan
When was the DTM made
1929, Warren Thompson, based off W Europe and America
Pros of DTM
Allows prediction so policies, comparable, dynamic (added 5th), proven right, easy to understand
Cons of DTM
Recent NEEs (Latin America) have leapfrogged, Nigeria doesn’t follow fertility, Westernised, not unidirectional, migration, needs context
Dependency ratio
Young dependents x elderly dependents / economically active x 100. proportion of dependents per 100 working age in the population
Typical dependency ratio for HICs
50-74, higher as more developed as elderly dependents
Africa dependency ratios 1950, 2010, 2090
80.5, 81.2, 55.7
Latin America dependency ratios 1950, 2010, 2090
78, 52.4, 80.4
Europe dependency ratios 1950, 2010, 2090
52.2, 46.6, 80.5
Young dependents age
0-14
Economically active age
15-64
Older dependents age
65+
What are demographic dividend windows
When they will become working age, can prepare for - India has 15y but different between states, UK 1960s baby boom