Population Flashcards
How many countries have what % of the world’s population
16, over 60%
What countries have the 2 largest world populations
India and China at 1.4b, India more likely to grow more as demographic dividend whilst China’s ageing population
What country has the 3rd largest world population
USA at 345m
What country has the most rapid population growth
Nigeria, by 2050 1/5 new people are Nigerian
Malthus
1798 Essay on the Principle of Population, point of crisis as arithmetic food production and exponential population growth, positive natural checks, negative checks prevent
Neo-Malthusian
Club of Rome: indefinite economic growth as limited natural resource availability
Boserup
1965: human ingenuity can alter carrying capacity e.g. GMO
Simon
Contemporary American economist, human material welfare increasing with population
What range do the 2100 population forecasts have
9.9b, 2015 World Population Prospects report, 80% chance 9.6-12.3b
1973-2022 global population trends
Significant SE Asia growth (India dd, China 421), ripple effect in vicinity of growth hubs (Spain, Scandinavia), America has balance or decline everywhere except central, not Russia (HIV, Putin)
2017-2021 global migration trends
Into Spain, from Kiribati, from Mexico (esp to Canada), from equator (desertifying), into HICs e.g. Ireland, from SE Asia (growth), from Pakistan (drought, climate change)
DTM stage 1
Babies in the bank, none
DTM stage 2
Haiti early, Sierra Leone, AID, from substinence
DTM stage 3
Demographic dividend, India cusp of 4, Nigeria
DTM stage 4
Brazil, economic burden of kids, era of balance
DTM stage 5
1.7 fertility rate, delayed degenerative, pro natal, migration can counter, Japan
When was the DTM made
1929, Warren Thompson, based off W Europe and America
Pros of DTM
Allows prediction so policies, comparable, dynamic (added 5th), proven right, easy to understand
Cons of DTM
Recent NEEs (Latin America) have leapfrogged, Nigeria doesn’t follow fertility, Westernised, not unidirectional, migration, needs context
Dependency ratio
Young dependents x elderly dependents / economically active x 100. proportion of dependents per 100 working age in the population
Typical dependency ratio for HICs
50-74, higher as more developed as elderly dependents
Africa dependency ratios 1950, 2010, 2090
81, 81, 56
Latin America dependency ratios 1950, 2010, 2090
78, 52, 80
Europe dependency ratios 1950, 2010, 2090
52, 47, 81
Young dependents age
0-14
Economically active age
15-64
Older dependents age
65+
What are demographic dividend windows
When they will become working age, can prepare for - India has 15y but different between states, UK 1960s baby boom
Migration
Movement of people away from their usual place of residence to a new one
Asylum seeker
Someone who’s fled their country of origin and applies for asylum under the 1951 UN Convention on the Status of Refugees on the grounds they can’t return to their country of origin due to persecution/ death
1951 Convention
141 signed, overseen by UN High Commission for Refugees
Refugee
Asylum seeker with a successful application claim for asylum
Economic migrant
Someone who’s voluntarily left their country of origin to seek employment in other countries
Crude birth rate
Number live births/1000 of a population annually
Crude death rate
Number deaths/1000 of a population annually
Demography
Study of the human population
Emigrant
A person leaving their native area/country to settle elsewhere
Immigrant
A person moving to an area/country where they’re not native to settle there
Infant mortality rate
Number of children who die before their first birthday/1000 live births annually
Life expectancy
Average number of years a person born in a particular year in a location is expected to live
Natural change
Difference between birth and death rate
Natural increase
The effect of birth rate being higher than death rate
Natural decrease
The effect of death rate being higher than birth rate
Net migration change
The difference between total number/average rate of immigrants and emigrants in a given time. Positive or negative
Net replacement rate
Number children each woman must have to maintain current population (2.1 to 3.3)
Reproductive age
Age at which women can give birth, 15 to 44
Total fertility rate
Average number of children born per woman in an area if all women lived to the end of their childbearing years
How much international migration between developing nations
1/3
How many international migrants reside in higher income countries than before
60%
Optimum population
A population size in an area, which, working with all resources, gives the highest living standard (GDP per capita)
Easter island
Thrived for 600y, 900 statues, population of thousands, 1774 James Cook visited and 700 living marginal lives
Population ecology model
Balances biotic potential and envmtal resistance to reach carrying capacity in lag, logarithmic and stable phase. Envmtal can be density dependent (food) or independent (hazards)
Total productive biocapacity
All the food, water, and energy resources produced annually to sustain us
Global hectares
Average productivity of all biologically productive areas
Carrying capacity
How large a population a given environment can support
Bioproductive limits
Limits that determine sustainable resource consumption
Biocapacity (global hectares per person)
Biologically productive land/ population
Ecological footprint
Measures of the human demands we place on the ecosystems that support us
How many Earths needed if we lived like N America
5
How many Earths needed if we lived like Asia Pacific and Africa
0.8
Earth overshoot day
Used the planet’s productive biocapacity for the year. 2000 1st Nov, 2024 30th July
Population, resources, and pollution model
Systems approach to analysing relationship between people and environment
What are the drivers in the UN projection of population growth
Fertility (less impt except in SSA where tribal structure), and life expectancy (becoming more impt)
What has population growth shown about Club of Rome
‘Limits to growth’ alarmist
When is marriage legal in Niger, influencing fertility
15
5 general consensuses on population future
World population growth will continue and slow, esp in Europe and Japan. Most rapid population growth in SSA. Increased avg age so ageing populations a widespread issue. Global fertility rates will drop below replacement level except SSA. India most populous by 2028.
Future regarding ozone depletion
CFCs react with and destroy, causing skin cancer (Australia world’s highest rates) and cataracts (2m new cases pa)
Future regarding vector borne diseases
Malaria, dengue (2b more exposed by 2080s)
Future regarding nutritional standards
HICs face higher food prices and less food safety, LDCs vulnerable to climate change, diets more Westernised
Future regarding thermal stress
WHO - heatwaves cause 70,000 deaths across Europe, cold more extreme
Future regarding agricultural productivity
64% land increase by 2080s for Russia, more wheat in mid latitudes but less at low, uncertain
