Poker Odds Flashcards
Having a pocket pair and hitting trips
Once every 9 times, roughly 12% of the time on the flop and 19% by the river
Chances two players will flop a set
Once every 100 times or 1% of the time
Having suited cards and flopping a flush
Once every 118 times or .8%
Outs in a flush draw
9 outs: 35% based on the flop, goes down 20%
Open-ended straight draw (oesd)
8 outs: 32% on the flop, goes down 17%
Inside straight draw (gut shot)
4 outs: 16.5% on the flop, goes down 9%
Having a two pair on the flop and getting a full house
4 outs: 9% on turn/river
Having two overcards and improving to overpair after the flop
6 outs: 13% on turn/river
Probability of one of your hole cards hitting a pair on the flop
1 in 3 or 30%
If you flop trips, the odds of making a full house or better by the river
1 in 3 or roughly 33%
If you flopped two pair, the odds of getting a full house or better by the river
16.74%
Flopping a straight with connectors (54-JT)
1 in 76 or 1.4%
Chance of an overcard hitting the board when you have a pocket pair
KK: flop 20%; river 35.3%
QQ: flop 40%; river 60%
JJ: flop 60%; river 76.3%
TT: 70%; river 86.9%
Probability of suited/connector cards hitting the flop
Roughly 1/3 times: flush draw 35% (20% completed board), outside straight draw 32% (17% completed board)
Counting combinations: unpaired hands (eg. AK)
16 combinations: 4 suited, 12 unsuited
eg, if an A is on the flop then that means there are only 12 combos of AK left
Counting combinations: pocket pairs
6 combos of each pair
eg, if 1 of the cards are not available because it is either in your hand or on the flop, only 3 combos left
Simplified Pot Odds vs. Equity Needed, if you are facing…
If you are facing:
1/2 pot bet - 3:1 (25% equity needed)
2/3 pot bet - 2.5:1 (29% equity needed)
1 pot bet - 2:1 (33% equity needed)
Pot Odds
$ in pot: $ needed to call
eg. 2:1 (risk 1 unit to win 2)
eg. 150bb (in pot):50bb (to call)
How often will at least one Ace will flop if you aren’t holding one?
23%
How often will you flop an Ace if you are holding one?
17%
Chances of hitting a backdoor flush/straight (runner-runner) draw?
Need two more cards to get the nuts, roughly 4% of hitting it from the flop. If you hit one of them on the turn, then it goes up to 17%
Inside Straight Draw & Two Overcards
eg. AK on QT3 board
10 outs: on the flop 38% then goes down 21%
