Module 6 Flashcards
Economics is the study of:
Production, distribution, and consumption, or the study of choices in the presence of scarce resources, divided into two broad areas: microeconomics and macroeconomics.
Microeconomics
The study of how individuals and companies make decisions to allocate scarce resources, which helps in understanding how individuals and companies prioritize their wants.
Macroeconomics
The study of an economy as a whole. For example, macroeconomics examines factors that affect a country’s economic growth.
Much of economic theory is based on the relationship between:
Supply and demand.
Equilibrium
The price of a good or service and how much will be produced is indicated at the intersection of the supply and demand curves.
Many economic problems assume that either:
Demand or supply is the (independent) variable changed and that both price and quantity are the (dependent) variables that must be determined.
In economic analysis, and for answering questions on the CFP® exam, remember:
Only one variable is changed at a time. All other variables are assumed to be held constant. This is obviously not the case in the real world, where multiple variables undergo constant change. For answering questions, determine the one main variable that is changing and focus on the specific question.
Price Elasticity
The responsiveness of the quantity of a good demanded to changes in price, all other economic forces remaining constant. Goods differ in their elasticity in relation to price.
Inelastic Goods
Demand for necessities, such as food or gasoline, responds relatively little to price changes; therefore, those types of goods are said to be inelastic.
Elastic Goods
The demand for luxuries, such as a new motorboat, responds relatively more to price changes; therefore, those types of goods are said to be elastic or demonstrate a great deal of price elasticity.
What you are trying to do with elasticity is:
Determine how many units of quantity are changed for every unit of price change.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The total monetary value of all goods and services produced within the domestic United States over the course of a given year, including income generated domestically by a foreign firm (e.g., Toyota Motor Corp.).
GDP is measured in:
Constant, non-inflation adjusted dollars, which translates into a real GDP after accounting for inflation (subsequent to a predetermined base or index year). Real GDP allows statisticians, economists, and investors to determine true production year-to-year.
The formula that describes the components of GDP is:
GDP = C + I + G + NE
where:
C = consumption (generally spending by individuals on durable and nondurable goods and services)
I = investment (generally business spending on inventory, plants, and equipment, but including new housing purchases by consumers)
G = government spending, including federal, state, and local
NE = net exports (total exports less total imports)
Gross National Product (GNP)
When Toyota builds and runs an auto assembly plant in the United States, it will show up in U.S. GDP even though it is a foreign company. However, when General Motors builds an auto assembly plant in China, it does not show up in our GDP (it would be reflected in China’s GDP). This is because it is not creating jobs and activity here in the United States. The plant in China will show up in gross national product (GNP).
GNP measures:
Activity by ownership and takes into account any production by a company both in-and outside the home country.
The federal government is responsible for which policy?
Fiscal policy.
The federal reserve board is responsible for which policy?
Monetary policy.
Fiscal Policy
The use of a government’s spending and taxation to influence the economy. Governments use fiscal policy to promote economic growth, reduce poverty, and maintain a balance of payments and receipts.
Who are the responsible parties for fiscal policy?
Congress and the president.
How do fiscal policies get passed?
Congress passes legislation and the president signs into law.
How do fiscal policies operate to implement economic changes?
Make changes to tax laws, as well as increases and decreases government spending.
Who is the responsible party for monetary policies?
Federal Reserve Board (Fed)
How do monetary policies get passed?
The Fed independently makes and implements decisions.
How do monetary policies operate to implement economic changes?
Changes in reserves required for banks, changes in the discount rate that banks pay for short-term loans from the Fed, and conducts open-market operations.
Two tools are used in exercising fiscal policy:
The power to tax
The power to spend
The Fed uses three major tools to enact monetary policy. They are:
reserve requirements;
discount rate; and
open-market operations.
In recent years, Congress has conducted a policy of deficit spending, meaning:
Government expenditures exceed revenues, which, in turn, causes the government to sell securities to the public to finance these deficits. This results in a crowding out effect with respect to other potential borrowers. As a result, market interest rates must eventually rise to compete for the limited overall money supply that is made available by the Fed.
Fiscal policy can be either:
Expansionary or contractionary.
Expansionary Policy
An expansionary fiscal policy often involves increasing government spending or by reducing taxes for individuals and/or businesses.
Contractionary Policy
A contractionary fiscal policy commonly incorporates decreases to government spending and/or increases to individual and/or business taxes.
Among the three monetary policy tools, the most important and most frequently practiced is:
Open-market operations carried out by the Fed.
If the Fed wants to expand economic activity, it will:
Buy government securities in exchange for money, thereby increasing the money supply and driving down overall interest rates.
If the Fed wants to contract economic activity, it will:
Sell government securities from its existing inventory, thereby decreasing the money supply, driving up overall interest rates, and reducing prices.
Interest rates can be classified in a few different ways; however, the Fed only directly controls one interest rate—the:
discount rate (the rate at which banks can borrow from any of the Federal Reserve Banks).
When the Fed raises the discount rate, it increases the:
Cost of borrowing and discourages member banks from borrowing funds, resulting in a contraction of the money supply.
The Fed will lower the discount rate when it wants to:
Increase the money supply.
The Fed greatly influences (or indirectly controls) two other interest rates—the:
Federal funds rate and the prime rate.
The Federal Funds Rate
The interest rate charged on short-term borrowing (often overnight to fulfill reserve requirements) between banks; the Fed targets, but does not directly control, this rate in all of its interest rate decisions.
The Prime Rate
The rate of interest charged by commercial banks to their best business and personal customers. This rate is set directly by commercial banks; however, it normally is about 3% higher than the federal funds rate.
In order to determine if the Fed’s open-market operations are expansionary or contractionary, just:
Follow the money. If the Fed is buying government securities, then they would be holding the government paper and the public would be receiving the cash, which is expansionary. If the Fed is selling securities, then the public would be holding the government paper and the Fed would have the cash, which is contractionary.
The Business Cycle
Reflects movements in economic activity and illustrates the concepts of supply and demand.
Low inflation (falling Consumer Price Index [CPI]) is a characteristic of:
The expansionary phase.
as the economy starts to heat up (increasing demand), inflation (rising Consumer Price Index) may rise on the way to the peak. As a result, the Fed may choose to:
Raise interest rates to curb inflation.
Does INCOME decrease/increase during expansion? What about contraction?
Expansion: Increase
Contraction: Decrease
Does DEMAND decrease/increase during expansion? What about contraction?
Expansion: Increase
Contraction: Decrease
Does SENTIMENT decrease/increase during expansion? What about contraction?
Expansion: Increase
Contraction: Decrease
Does CONSUMER CREDIT decrease/increase during expansion? What about contraction?
Expansion: Increase
Contraction: Decrease
Do RETAIL SALES decrease/increase during expansion? What about contraction?
Expansion: Increase
Contraction: Decrease
Do AUTO SALES decrease/increase during expansion? What about contraction?
Expansion: Increase
Contraction: Decrease
Does MORTGAGE DEBT decrease/increase during expansion? What about contraction?
Expansion: Increase
Contraction: Decrease
Do HOUSING STARTS decrease/increase during expansion? What about contraction?
Expansion: Increase
Contraction: Decrease
Does INFLATION decrease/increase during expansion? What about contraction?
Expansion: Decrease
Contraction: Increase
Does UNEMPLOYMENT decrease/increase during expansion? What about contraction?
Expansion: Decrease
Contraction: Increase
Does CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) decrease/increase during expansion? What about contraction?
Expansion: Decrease
Contraction: Increase
Does GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) decrease/increase during economic peaks? What about troughs?
Peak: Increase
Trough: Decrease
Does PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) decrease/increase during economic peaks? What about troughs?
Peak: Increase
Trough: Decrease
Does INFLATION decrease/increase during economic peaks? What about troughs?
Peak: Increase
Trough: Decrease
Does OUTPUT decrease/increase during economic peaks? What about troughs?
Peak: Increase
Trough: Decrease
Does INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION decrease/increase during economic peaks? What about troughs?
Peak: Increase
Trough: Decrease
Does CAPACITY UTILIZATION decrease/increase during economic peaks? What about troughs?
Peak: Increase
Trough: Decrease
Does LABOR PRODUCTIVITY decrease/increase during economic peaks? What about troughs?
Peak: Decrease
Trough: Increase
Does EFFICIENCY decrease/increase during economic peaks? What about troughs?
Peak: Decrease
Trough: Increase
A recession occurs when:
The GDP has experienced a decrease in real terms for two consecutive quarters or a minimum of six months from a baseline of zero. Recessions are characterized by several features, including high unemployment, reduction in manufacturing, increases in inventory of durable goods, a decline in GDP, contractions in corporate profits, and lower consumer spending.
A depression occurs when:
The GDP has experienced a decrease in real terms for six consecutive quarters or a minimum of 18 months from a baseline of zero.
For purposes of determining which phase of the business cycle the economy is currently or likely to be in the future, there are three types of economic indicators:
Leading indicators
Coincident indicators
Lagging or confirming indicators
Leading Indicators
are those that tend to precede actual economic change. Examples of leading indicators are:
- stocks
– housing starts,
– new claims for unemployment,
– bond yields (spread between 10-year Treasury bonds and federal funds),
– indexes of stock prices,
– orders for durable goods, and
– changes in investor sentiment.
Remember that stocks are a leading indicator, which means:
That staying out of the market and waiting for things to get better before getting back into the market will not work. Once things look better, the market will have already moved higher. The CFP Board looks for stocks to be long-term investments (commitment of 5 to 10 years or longer) and not to be actively traded based on economic indicators, especially leading indicators.
Coincident Indicators
Those that occur simultaneously during the business cycle and confirm the stage that the economy is currently experiencing. Examples of coincident indicators are
– industrial production,
– level of personal income, and
– amount of corporate profits.
Lagging or Confirming Indicators
Those that usually change after the economy has passed through one business cycle and allow confirmation of a previous economic environment. Examples of lagging indicators are
– prime interest rates,
– changes in CPI, particularly for services,
– amount of business and consumer loans outstanding, and
– average duration of unemployment.
Inflation
Defined as a rise in the average level of prices of goods and services.
The two most common measures of inflation are:
the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI).