MODULE 4: Accident and Road crash Analysis Flashcards
One measure of accident rate is per 100,000 population.
Accident per Population
Another measure of accident rate is per 10,000 registered vehicles.
Accident per Registered Vehicles
Property damage-only accidents involve vehicles colliding with publicity or privately owned structures, equipment, and facilities located by the road. It also includes collision of vehicles with other vehicles without causing physical injury to the driver, passenger, or any pedestrian
Accident
the total entering traffic volume usually in AADT is considered. The factor of 1,000,000 is applied for convenience to obtain values of Ai within two to three digits.
Accident Rate for Intersections
Sections-For segments oh highways 1-2 km in length, accident rates are computed based on total vehicle-kilometers of travel. the factor of 100 million is applied for convenience.
Accidents Rates for Road Sections
It is very alarming that most traffic accidents occurred during night time. There may be other contributing factors, but the major ones could be (a) inadequacy of street lightning, (b) lack of warning devices, and (c)0 complete disregard of traffic signals during late night or early morning. Driver factor again plays a big part, e.g., falling asleep, practice of using blinding head lights, drunkenness occurring more at night due to parties, reduced visibility due to smoke-belchers, and even occurrence of night blindness among malnourished drivers.
Accidents by Time of Day
3 methods in identifying blackspots or hazardous locations:
- Classic Statistical Method
- Rate Quality Control Method
- Setting Benchmark Method
The method assumes that the number of accidents at locations of interest follows a standard normal probability distribution.
Classic Statistical Method
This is a variation of the classic statistical method. Instead of a normal distribution, the method assumes that the number of accidents at a set of locations follows a Poisson distribution. Also, the method applies only to rates and not to frequencies. It compares the rate of a particular location to the mean rate at similar locations rather than at all locations.
Rate Quality Control Method
requires arranging all accidents involving casualties from highest to lowest as shown. When a certain benchmark is set, say five times of the average number of accidents, then the places of locations with more accidents than this benchmark will be considered as blackspots. Perhaps using this method is more suitable for the country, especially when budget allocation for improving hazardous locations is very limited.
Setting Benchmark Method
An unexpected/undesired event that may result to the following:
Injury
Property Damage
Death
ACCIDENT
Also referred to as motor vehicle collision, road accident or traffic collision
TRAFFIC ACCIDENT
Traffic Death
UN definition:
Death that occurs within thirty (30) days of the event
Philippine Definition:
Death “at scene”
ROAD ACCIDENT
Serious or Slight (Minor)
Based on the extent of injury sustained and length of time of recovery
INJURY
Involve vehicles colliding with publicly/ privately owned structures
Vehicle to vehicle collision with no physical injuries to driver, passenger or other road users
PROPERTY DAMAGE (only)
According to WHO (as of 2021), Approximately ________ people die each year as a result of road traffic crashes.
1.3 million
_% of GDP of most countries are road traffic crash cost
3
More than half of all road traffic deaths are among vulnerable road users:
pedestrians,
cyclists, and
motorcyclists
__% of the world’s fatalities on the roads occur in low- and middle-income countries
93
Road traffic injuries are the leading cause of death for children and young adults aged
5-29 years
__% of all road traffic deaths occur among young males under the age of 25 years who are almost 3 times as likely to be killed in a road traffic crash as young females
73
RISK FACTORS:
Speeding
Driving under the influence
Nonuse of motorcycle helmets, seatbelts, child restraints
Distracted driving
Inadequate post crash care
Inadequate enforcement of traffic laws
Unsafe vehicles
Unsafe road infrastructure
Causes of Road Accident
Driver’s Error
Mechanical Error
Over Speeding
DUI
Damaged Roads
Others
Speeding:
__% increase in mean speed increase fatal crash by 4% and serious crash injuries by 3%
1
– 42% fatal injuries reduced;
- 69% head injuries reduced
Motorcycle helmet
Reduce 45 – 50% death for front seat occupants
25 % reduction fatal and serious injuries to rear seat occupants
Seatbelt use
- 60% reduction in child death
Child restraints
Rank 118 worldwide
11.40 death rate per 100,000 population
10, 627 (1.74%) deaths of all road traffic related accidents
Source: WHO 2018 Road Traffic Accidents Deaths
620, 400 registered deaths in 2019
Transport death as 10th leading cause for the male population (3%)
Philippine Road Traffic Accidents
average daily traffic accidents: ____ (Metro Manila)(MMARAS 2020 Annual Report)
262
Gauged by frequency of accident occurrence
Road Safety
Key Indicators of Road Safety:
Number of accidents
- Fatal
- Injuries (serious/ minor)
- Property damage
Rates of accidents
- frequency
Used to assess a country’s road safety condition
KEY SOCIOECONOMIC INDICATORS
True or false:
Based on experiences of most developing countries , Increase the growth rates for all factors also increases the potential for road accidents
True
Most traffic occur during nighttime
Accidents by time of day
Contributing factors of Accidents by time of day
(a) inadequate street lighting
(b) lack of warning devices
(c) complete disregard of traffic signal during late night or early morning
(d)Others (night blindness, dui, glare)
Causes of Accident
a. human error
- Drivers error
- Bad overtaking
- Bad turning
- Over speeding
- Self Accident
- Drunk driving
- Using cellular while driving
- hit and run
- Overloading
b. Mechanical defect
c. Road condition
d. Others (animal crossing, calamity related, etc)
hazardous locations
BLACKSPOTS
METHODS IN IDENTIFYING HAZARDOUS LOCATIONS
STATISTICAL METHODS
- Classical Statistical Method
- Rate Quality Control Method
BENCHMARK METHODS
- Setting Benchmark Method
Assumes that the number of accidents at locations of interest follows a standard normal probability distribution
CLASSICAL STATISTICAL METHOD
- A Variation of classic statistical method
- number of accidents at a set of locations follows a Poisson distribution
- Applies only to rates and not to frequencies
- Compares the rate of a particular location to the mean rate at similar locations
RATE QUALITY CONTROL METHOD
- Requires arranging all accidents involving casualties from highest to lowest
- A benchmark is set, locations with more accidents that the benchmark will be considered as blackspots
- Suitable to countries with very limited budget for improvement of hazardous locations
SETTING BENCHMARK METHOD
Who is affected by economic losses due to road traffic injuries?
- nation
- families
- individual
Losses comes from:
- pain, grief, and suffering
- medical costs
- repair costs
- productivity loss
- administrative cost
- Cost of treating injured persons from crash
- Includes doctor’s fees, medicine and time spent in hospital and long-term care
MEDICAL COST
- Allowance for the loss of quality of life, pain, grief and suffering incurred by the injured, and their family and friends
PAIN, GRIEF AND SUFFERING
- Loss Output
- Value of work than an injured person would have produce during the time they were absent from work
PRODUVTIVITY LOSS
- Property damage
- Cost of repairing vehicle and other property damage
- Includes cost paid by the person and insurance company
VEHICLE REPAIR
- Cost incurred by police and other service in the process of attending crashes and associated activities
- also include cost to administer insurance claim
ADMINISTRATIVE COST
2005:
national cost of road accidents is ___% of the country’s GDP
2.8
2008:
road accidents became the _____ leading cause of death
fourth
Road crashes cost at least PhP _____ billion every year
105.7
Php 5.7 B
medical treatment
PhP 100B
opportunity losses
wooooww
Cost Component for what severity type:
Lost Output
Pain, grief and suffering
Medical
Administrative
Vehicle Repair
Fatal
Serious Injury
Cost Component for what severity type:
Lost Output
Medical
Administrative
Vehicle Repair
Minor injury
Cost Component for what severity type:
Administrative
Vehicle repair
Damage only
ESTIMATING COST ACCIDENTS
METHODOLOGIES:
1.)Gross Output/ Human capital method
2.)Life Insurance method
3.)Court Award method
4.)Implicit Public sector valuation method
5.)Net Output Method
6.) Value Risk Change or Willingness-to-pay Method
- measures valuation of risk associated with road usage
- determined by premiums the driver population is willing to pay
Life Insurance method
- based on actual compensation settlements awarded
- influenced by degree of negligence found
Court Award method
- set of implied values is used to value human lives
Implicit Public sector valuation method
- Focuses on the economic consequences of road accident
- Usually includes an estimated sum that reflects pain, grief, and suffering incurred by persons and family involved
- Based on the idea that value (to society) of avoiding death or injury is related to potentially lost economic output resources
- Recommended by ADB for developing countries
Gross Output/ Human capital method
- Preferred costing method in many developed countries
- Best way to measure costing of accidents for benefit-cost analysis
WILLINGNESS – TO – PAY METHOD
The sum of the average daily wage rate of each person involved multiplied to the number of days off work
Injuries
Calculations performed over the rest of expected working life and discounted to an equivalent present value
Fatalities and Permanent Disabilities
Percentage of lost output (productivity loss) cost
ADB recommendation:
Fatal: 20% total lost income
Serous Injury: 50% total lost income
Minor injury: 30% total lost income
Pain, Grief and suffering
Average cost of vehicle repairs (sourced from insurance company records) multiplied by average number of vehicles involved in crash
Vehicle Damage
Annual cost of care for persons permanently and severely disabled
Performed over the rest of expected life span and discounted to an equivalent present value
Long Term Medical Cost
Sum of Average length of hospital stay for each injured multiplied to by average daily cost of hospital care
Short Term Medical Cost
A percentage of resource debts
ADB recommendation:
Fatal accidents: 0.20 %
Serious Injury: 4.0%
Minor Injury: 14.0%
Property damage (only): 10%
Administrative Cost
