MKTG 579 Flashcards
NPD
New Product Development
Basic New Product Process
- Opportunity Identification and Selection
- Concept Generation
- concept/project evaluation
- Development (incl. both technical and market tests)
- Launch
How to Increase Chance of NPD Success
- A market research program
2. An integrated approach
Qualitative Research Programs
Depth interviews, focus groups, expert judgement, case studies, projective methods, beta tests
Quantitative Research Programs
Standard surveys, concept tests, perceptual maps, conjoint analysis, product use test
QFD
Quality Function Deployment. Also referred to as the House of Quality. An example of an integrated approach.
Diffusion of Innovation (Pattern of Adoption)
- Innovators (2.5%)
- Early Adopters (13.5%)
- Early Majority (34%)
- Later Majority (34%)
5 Laggards (16%)
The S-Curve for Diffusion
- Lag Phase
- Take-Off
- Saturation Point
Factors Affecting Diffusion Rate
Product-Related
- High relative advantage over existing products
- Can be tried on a limited basis
- Benefits and usage are observable
- High degree of compatibility with existing approaches
- Low complexity
Market-Related
- Type of innovation adoption decision (does it involve switching from familiar way of doing things?)
- Communication channels used
- Nature of “links” among market participants
- Nature and effect of promotional efforts
Key Drivers of Diffussion
- Relative Advantage - superiority over the product it is trying to replace (Ex: X-Ray)
- Trial-ability - if new product performs successfully in testing by non-experts.
- Observability-The degree of difficulty in discovering or describing the tangible and intangible benefits of the new product
- Compatibility-if the new product complies with the original object’s functionality, user values, needs, and past experience.
- Complexity-When the product’s features, if many and varied, diminish the users understanding of, or increase the difficulty in, using a new product.
Prospect Theory
A concept developed to explain a person’s response to changes in monetary and non-monetary wealth. It is based on how people perceive the value they may be getting. What drives behavior are these psychological reactions to gains and losses, and not the objective gains and losses themselves.
Rules
- Individuals are sensitive to gains and losses
- Reference points matter - what is a persons status quo
- Decreasing marginal sensitivity - people feel the gain/loss less after time
- Aversion to losses - people could be more sensitive to the loss compared to the gain
Endowment Effect
People value items in their possession (or part of their endowment) more than they value items not in their possession.
Applying to Innovation Adoptions
Consumers will evaluate what they are “giving up” vs what they are “getting.”
Innovator Biases
- Self-Selection
- A clash in perspectives
- The curse of knowledge
Demand Forecasting Methods
- Judgmental: chain ratios
- Market and product analysis (Surveys, market test, Bass model)
- Regression analysis (linking market/product/consumer factors to sales)
Forecasting: Bottom Line
Forecasting is as much about judgment as it is about data and science. Always perform sensitivity analysis.
“Forecasts are nothing. Forecasting is everything.” - the process is important
(WK2) R Square
The higher the R Square the better your model is for the data.
(WK2) Significance F
This tells us about the overall model fit. Is this model sufficiently good? A value lower than 5% is good. A higher than 5% “P” value means they were insignificant in the regression forecasting.
(WK2) Data Collection
- Primary data: Surveys, often based on recall and estimations.
- Secondary, Internal: transaction record, sales invoice. External: commercial dataset, firm filing reports, government data, online open-access data, etc.
(WK2) Using the Bass Model
Purpose: to model the diffusion pattern of new products and innovation
(WK2) What can the Bass Model be used to predict
- Annual sales
- The time of sales peak
- Sales a peak period
- Market size
(WK2) 3 Parameters of the Bass Model
- P: Coefficient of innovation (degree of innovation)
- Q: Coefficient of imitation (degree of imitation)
- M: Market Size (number of people that could become adopters of the product)
(WK2) Important Note about Bass Model
The Bass model is about the diffusion of the product category, not individual brands or firms.
(WK2) Bass Model Equation
Sales at time t:
S(t) = pm + (q-p) N(t-1) - (q/m)Nt-1)^2
Sales peak at time t:
t = (p+q) In(q/p)
(WK2) What drives “P”
P: “innovation” people who adopt independently of others
- Firm promotion (advertising)
- Media coverage
- Risk associated with adoption
- Advantage over existing products
(WK2) What drives “Q”
Q: “imitation” people who adopt as a result of others adopting
- Observation
- Word-of-mouth
(WK3) Ingredients of Creativity
Creativity (grow, the process of growth)
- Imagination
- Inspiration
- Envision
(WK3) 5 Skills that Foster Creativity
- Observing
- Questioning
- Experimenting
- Networking
- Associating
Innovators DNA article
(WK3) Is Creativity Learned?
1/3 of the ability to think creatively comes from genetics.
2/3 comes from learning.
(WK3) Observing
- Carefully, intentionally, and consistently
- Look out for behavior details - especially of customers
- Never take things for granted
- Take notes
- Ask questions
(WK3) Questioning
- It gives you some time to think about the observation or the puzzle. It allows you to think deeper.
- Questioning often generates greater interest and enthusiasm. And being enthusiastic makes you more successful.
(WK3) How to Question
- Ask why, why not, and what if?
- Why do they do that?
- Why isn’t there a way we can do this more easily?
- Constraints often stimulate creative thinking. For example, what if the supply of this material runs out? Don’t take the impossible for granted.
(WK3) Experimenting
- Actively try out new ideas
- Formats of experimenting
- Physical tinkering
- Creating prototypes
- Launching pilots
- Intellectual exploration
- Engagement in new surroundings
(WK3) Associating
Connecting the Dots
(WK3) Networking
Most important ideas emerged during regular lab meeting, where a dozen or so researchers gather and informally present and discuss their latest work.