Micro for Development - Poverty and inequality Flashcards
Poverty definition
- Common definition: Lack of command over commodities; “..a severe constriction of the choice set [over commodities]”
- More narrow definition: Lack of specific consumptions (e.g. too little food energy intake)
- Less narrow definition: Poverty as lack of “welfare” e.g., lack of “capabilitiy”: inability to achieve certain “functionings” (“beings and doings”)
- core axioms for measuring poverty
- focus: small change in economic welfare for the non-poor cannot change measure of poverty
- monotonicity: a small increase in economic welfare for the poor must reduce the measure of poverty
- sub-group monotonicity: increase in poverty for any sub-group must incerase aggregate measure of poverty
- transfer principle: small transfer of income from a poor person to someone who is poorer must decrease the measure of poverty (also called “weak transfer axiom”)
- most common poverty measures do not satisfy the axioms (headcount only satisfies the focus axiom)
why measure poverty?
- Inform program design
- Who are the target groups?
- How should transfers be allocated?
- How much impact will they have on poverty?
- Monitoring progress
- Has poverty increased? Did growth help the poor?
- Foster evidence based policy making
- Who were the losers and winners from economy-wide policy reforms? (ex-ante vs. ex-post)
- Social spending: who benefits from government subsides? Who will be hurt by retrenchment?
- But…can inform or misinform anti-poverty policies
how to measure poverty
- Identify the “space” in which poverty is going to be measured
- Identify “who are poor”: dichotomize the population between poor and non-poor. Tool: Poverty line (z): Poor = xi<z>i≥z</z>
- Aggregation: Construct an index that summarizes the information and gives an overall picture of poverty. A poverty measure is a function: P(x,z):Dx→R which indicates the level of poverty in each distribution x
sources of information - surveys
Differ according to:
- the unit of observation (household/individual)
- no. observations over time (cross-section/panel)
- living standards indicator (consumption/income)
Four sets of issues to consider concerning data:
- Survey design
- Does sample frame cover entire population?
- Response bias?
- What is the sample structure (clustering, stratification)?
- Goods coverage and valuation
- Is the goods coverage comprehensive?
- Is the survey integrated (e.g. price analysis)?
- Are there valuation problems?
- Variability and the time period of survey
- Is there significant variability over time?
- Can this be encompassed within the recall period?
- What are the implications for the choice between consumption and income?
- Inter-personal comparisons
- Is consumption a sufficient statistic?
- What other variables matter? (Prices, demographics, publicly provided goods)
how to measure poverty 1 - identify measurement space (welfare indicator)
- Consumption expenditures per capita
- capture destruction of goods and services by use
- consumption valued at prices paid (whether or not there was an actual transaction)
- Income per capita
- maximum possible expenditure on consumption without depleting assets
- Poor indicator when incomes vary; hard to measure
- Nutritional indicators
- “Welfarist” critique (welfare and nutrition are different things); nutritional requirements/ anthropometric standards.
- Common practice
- Use comprehensive consumption measure, spanning consumption space
- Choice between income and consumption is largely driven by the greater likelihood of accuracy of information on consumption.
- Recognize the limitations of consumption based measures; look for supplementary measures, esp access to public services, subjective welfare as a clue to measuring objective welfare.

constructing the consumption measure
- The consumption measure is the foundation over which all poverty analysis rests
- Principles:
- Goal is to be able to rank individuals in terms of welfare
- Should be comprehensive
- Retain transparency and credibility
- Important clarifications
- Consumption: destruction of goods and services by use
- Expenditure: consumption valued at prices paid
- Income: maximum possible expenditure on consumption without depleting assets
- Common steps
- Construct a food consumption measure
- Add basic non-food items (from consumption module)
- Add other non-food items (other modules)
- Do not confuse investment with consumption expenditures
- Add housing expenditures
- Often based on hedonic regressions, given that owner occupiers do not report rent payments
- Add use-value of consumer durables
- Impute a stream of consumption services rather than purchase expense of “lumpy” consumption items
how to measure poverty 2 - identify who are the poor (poverty line)
poverty lines depend on our notion of poverty
- subjective poverty lines: based on people’s perception of poverty
- relative poverty lines: increasing function of the average standard of living
- absolute poverty lines: command a fixed standard of living over the domain of poverty comparisons
subjective poverty lines
- subjective/self-rated methods: based on the subjective idea of what constitutes a socially acceptable standard of living
- typical question: what income is minimum in that you could not make ends meet with less
- answers may be correlated with actual income

relative poverty lines
- related to average income or consumption in a country
- key policy question: has poverty decreaed?
- challenging to compare across time (and across countries) - if everyone’s income / consumption doubles, relative poverty rates should (but need not) stay unchanged
- tend to be used more in rich countries (also more in countries that have more focus on distributional concerns)
absolute poverty lines
- absolute level below which consumption is considered to be too low to meet min. welfare level acceptable
- typically used in low or middle income countries, but also US
- main principle: consistency - fixed in terms of welfare level (standard of living)
- two main methodologies
- food energy intake (FEI)
- cost of basic needs (CBN)
absolute poverty lines - food energy intake
- Calorie income (expenditure) function… as income (expenditure) rises, food energy intake rises monotonically
- Find the income (expenditure) at which food-energy requirements are met on average
- what about consistency? (graph 2)
- Different subgroups attain the food-energy intake at different standards of living, in terms of consumption expenditures
- Advantages
- Computationally simple
- Avoids the need for price data to cost out a basket of goods
- Limitations
- Consistency is not guaranteed
- The caloric income function depends on other factors as well as income. For instance: tastes of the household (preferences), level of activity of household members, relative prices, publicly-provided goods

absolute poverty lines - cost of basic needs
- based on estimated cost of bundle of goods adequate to ensure that basic needs are met
- cost of food basket necessary to attain minimum energy intake is calculated; allowance for non-food expenditure is added
- steps
- pick nutritional requirement
- choose basket of goods that allows you to meet that requirement:
- Select a “reference” population (e.g. 2-5th deciles of expenditure distribution);
- Calculate the budget shares –> identifying k commodities (k = 1,…,K) which reflects habits of households near the poverty line (average or median across reference group)
- Calculate the average or median quantity consumed of each commodity k by the reference group (q ̅kbar)
- Convert the basket of quantities into caloric values using a food nutrition table: (k=1 to K)Σ(qbark*ck) (ck=unit calorie value of commodity k)
- see screenshot for steps 4-5
- estimate cost
- add non-food component
- CBN poverty line given by zBN = zF + zNF
- problems
- needs vary across individuals (age, sex) and over time–>solution: take estiamte (e.g. 2100 calories)
- which basket to use? (e.g. Laos: 32 items, Kenya 100)
- estimating non-food component
- bundle of goods (pick bundle and price it; same issues as food)
- food-share method: use share of food of total expenditure of some groups of households (typically those closest to poverty line) to obtain nonfood allowance

remarks on poverty lines
- choice of poverty line is ultimately arbitrary and must conform with social norms
- poverty lines imply discontinuity in well-being, might not be real
- multiple poverty lines reflecting different levels of poverty can help
- important to carry out sensitivity analysis (sensitive to choice of poverty line)
how to update poverty line
- update old poverty line using new prices: answers question: how many people can afford the old basket now?
- update new poverty line using old prices; answers question: how many people could afford new basket in the past?
poverty measures: headcount
- H=q/n with q=#people deemed poor, n=population size
- advantage: easily understood
- disadvantage: insensitive to dostribution below poverty line, e.g. if poor person becomes poorer nothing happens to H
- Example: A: (1,2,3,4) B: (2,2,2,4) C: (1,1,1,4) let z=3, HA=0.75=HB=HC
poverty measures: poverty gap

poverty measures: squared poverty gap

poverty measures: FGT measures
some desirable properties
- Symmetry (or Anonymity): names do not matter
- Normalization: if nobody is poor in the society, poverty should be zero
- Population Invariance: poverty should be invariant to the population size
- Scale Invariance: if all incomes and the poverty lines are scaled by the same factor, poverty does not change
- Focus: If some incomes of individual above the poverty line change but do not fall below the poverty line, poverty does not change
- Weak monotonicity: if the income of some poor individual increases, poverty should not increase
- Weak Transfer Principle: a regressive (progressive) transfer among poor individuals should not decrease (increase) poverty
- Transfer Sensitivity: a regressive (progressive) transfer has a greater effect the lower in the distribution it occurs
- Subgroup Consistency: For fixed subgroup populations, if poverty rises in one subgroup and does not increase in the others, overall poverty should increase
- Additive Decomposability: Overall poverty is the population-weighted average of subgroups poverty levels

poverty measures: examples
Example 1
- Effect of the change in price of domestically produced goods on welfare.
- Price of rice in Indonesia:
- Many poor households are net rice producers, the poorest households are landless laborers and net consumers of rise.
- Policy A - Decrease in price of rice: small loss to person at poverty line, but poorest gains;
- Policy B - Increase in price: poorest loses, but small gain to person at poverty line.
- So HA > HB yet SPGA < SPGB
- Which policy would you choose?
Example 2: attachment

poverty profile
- Key policy questions: Who are the poor? Where are they? Why are they poor (what are critical constraints/bottlenecks?)
- provides an entry point to such questions
- Can be simple cross-tabulation, or based on multiple regressions
- Remains descriptive, not yet a causal analysis
- Important challenge to poverty economist is to produce a detailed, pertinent, robust poverty profile
- challenge in creating a robust profile: adjusting for family composition and size
- goal is to work with a money metric of individual welfare.
- Consumption (and income) aggregates are usually constructed at the level of the household.
- Convention is to divide household consumption by the number of family members to arrive at a measure of per capita consumption.
- This approach sidesteps two issues:
- Different people may have different needs
- The cost per person of reaching a certain welfare level may be lower in large households than small ones
poverty profile - difference in needs
- In principle equivalence scales can be used to adjust for differences in needs.
- E.g. If a child needs half as much as an adult, then a two adult - two child household will consist of three equivalent adults.
- If the total consumption of household is 120 then equivalent-consumption will equal 40. All four individuals will be allocated this equivalent-consumption.
- Where do equivalence scales come from Huge range of candidate scales
- Nutritional scales – derived from health studies. At best can be used to deflate food expenditures.
- Behavioral scales – econometric estimates based on observed allocations. Major difficulties with identification. For example, if we observe that female children get less, do they need less? Or is it that they are systematically discriminated against?
- Little guidance as to which scales are best. One option to conduct sensitivity analysis. (India example)
- We often find that poverty profiles do not change much as a result of equivalence scale adjustments.
- Use of per capita welfare measure may not be too misleading
- This is an empirical question that needs to be checked on a case-by-case basis.
poverty profile - economies of scale in consumption
- The use of a per capita measure of consumption imposes an assumption of no economies of scale in consumption.
- Where might such economies come from?
- Consumption of public goods within the household (radio, water pump)
- Bulk purchase discounts on perishable food items
- Economies in food preparation (fuel, time)
- Suppose money metric of consumer’s welfare has an elasticity of θ with respect to household size. Then welfare measure of a typical member of any household is measured in monetary terms by: continue screenshot

poverty profile - constructing a spatially disaggregated poverty map
- Poverty analysis is generally based on household survey data
- Such data are typically representative at the national, and possibly some broad, aggregate, sub-national, level.
- Policy makers want poverty data at the local level
- Decentralization
- Targeting
- what are the options
- Collect larger samples
- expensive
- some kind of data compromise
- Combine the limited information available in data sources like the census, into some proxy of welfare (e.g. “basic needs index”)
- ad-hoc
- often widely disputed (multiple maps)
- limited usually to a notion of poverty
- how to interpret? (poverty=low income?)
- Impute a preferred measure of welfare (e.g. comprehensive real consumption) from household survey into census, using statistical prediction methods: small area estimation
- Produces readily interpretable estimates:
- Works with exactly the same concept of welfare as traditional survey-based analysis.
- Statistical precision can be gauged
- Encouraging results to date
- But, non-negligible data requirements
- Collect larger samples
- Features of the small area estimation method
- Separate regressions per stratum, including census means as regressors
- Clustered error term to capture spatial influence on consumption/income
- Use cluster weights where significant
- Allow for non-normality of disturbances
- Heteroskedasticity in individual-specific component of disturbances.
- Estimation of standard errors alongside point estimates


