Meissner, Wulf (2013)

Question 1

Scenarion planning

Answer 1

reduces the framing bias and that it has a more positive effect on decision quality than tools traditionally used in strategic planning

Question 2

Scenario planning aim:

Answer 2

• The aim is to understand logical paths that lead to different scenarios and build strategies for these scenarios
• Used to foster sense-making and adaptive learning to develop more effective strategies and to advance predictions in the organization
• Capable to improve decision-making, foster strategic thinking, enhance mental models of decision-makers and reduce the negative effect of cognitive bias

Question 3

Key Message

Answer 3

In this study, we show that scenario planning reduces the framing bias and increases the overall decision quality in the strategy process. Furthermore, we highlight that only a complete application of the scenario process seems to ensure this debiasing effect. We provide additional empirical support for the scenario method’s cognitive benefits and suggest that the application of scenario planning in corporate practice may in fact increase the quality of strategic decisions.