Lesson 5 Flashcards
When facing a bet, what is the requirement for continuing?
I need to have the required EV (NOT EQUITY) to make that call.
For example, when facing half pot bet, i need at least 25% EV (NOT EQUITY) share of the pot to continue.
I can only estimate if i have the required EV, when I do that, it’s based off what factors?
How to think about those factors?
equity, future fold equity,implied odds, realizability.
My equity is the baseline, and I tweak my actual estimation based on the other factors.
Let’s say that i determined that call is plus EV. Is this sufficient to make a call?
No, this does takes folding off the table (since a positive EV is better than 0EV), but I also have the option of raising. I need to think about which of the options has the most EV.
How does position affect those factors and why:
-Realizability
-Future fold equity
-Implied odds
Position makes each one of those better:
Reallizability:
Since I have a better control over the pot size when I’m in position, I have better realizability.
Future fold equity:
When I call the turn and have air on the river, villain might check his air and I can bluff him with my worse air.
Implied odds:
When I hit my hand and I’m in position, I can make sure that another bet goes into the pot, unlike oop where I need to check sometimes.
What’s the “don’t have the odds” fallacy? explain and give an example.
When continuing vs a bet, people mix between - need the EQUITY to call and need the EV to call. We need enough EV to call, not equity.
For example, with KTdd J886 two diamond, BU bets 75% pot.
Some people will think that since I need 30% EQUITY(wrong) to make that call, and there are only 9 diamond 3 kings in the deck (12 outs = 24%) then I can’t make that call.
In reality, I easily have the EV to make the call, in this instance implied odds (even if I check on a d river, villain will bet the river some percentage of the time). So the the factor implied odds easily compensates for the small gap between equity and ev.
How can I score SDV hand types?
-improvability (chance that the hand will improve)
as BB vs BU SRP,
flop comes 886sdc
X/B33
rank this hand in terms of REALIZABILITY ONLY if I do call,
and decide if I want to fold or call:
KsQc
I have 6 outs to improve, medium realizability. Call.
as BB vs BU SRP,
flop comes 886sdc
X/B33
rank this hand in terms of REALIZABILITY ONLY if I do call,
and decide if I want to fold or call:
22
Low realizability. 2 outs to improve.
Call (solver sometimes raises).
as BB vs BU SRP,
flop comes 886sdc
X/B33
rank this hand in terms of REALIZABILITY ONLY if I do call,
and decide if I want to fold or call:
A4hh
Poor realizability
fold
as BB vs BU SRP,
flop comes 886sdc
X/B33
rank this hand in terms of REALIZABILITY ONLY if I do call,
and decide if I want to fold or call:
53cc
Poor realizability
fold
as BB vs BU SRP,
flop comes 886sdc
X/B33
rank this hand in terms of REALIZABILITY ONLY if I do call,
and decide if I want to fold or call:
65dd
High-medium realizability,
call
What allows us to call flimsy hands such as backdoors and gutshots?
Future fold equity, eg when action goes X/B/C, and X/X turn, then we have a range advantage, and we have a profitable bluff even if we didn’t hit.
But don’t get carried away - future fold equity is just one factor and i always need to consider EQUITY and implied odds.
Explain how important the “implied odds” factor is
sometimes there’s quite a gap between equity and required ev, but being able to draw for the nuts, where we might be paid huge (over the pot) bridges that gap.
For example, JT on KQ64r facing 75% pot I need 30% ev, and i have only 18% equity, but the fact that if I hit I’ll get paid bridges that gap (even against UTG, BB can call,raise or call but hardly folds vs a 75% pot bet).
Should I call or fold the following spot:
as BB vs sb SRP,
flop T77shd B33/C
Turn Kd B75/?
with Js9d
double gutshot, I have 8 outs to this so 16% but it’s not to the nuts anyways (some of my outs will be a flush and board is already paired).
I am in position, so I can call. If it was vs BU I think I would fold.
Solver: indeed folds BB vs BU, it does continue 75% of time time as BB vs SB thanks to being in position, it is a close spot.
Should I call or fold the following spot:
as BB vs BU SRP,
flop T77shd X/B33/C
Turn Kd X/B75/?
with T8cc
I have a middle pair, block some of his value (87,TT), but also block some of his bluffs (98). Unblock dd flush draw.
Overall, I think I’d call most of the time, since this is a loose configuration (BU vs BB)-
solver indeed continues most of the time - but it is indifferent already BB vs BU. But actually T8s is indifferent even if it’s UTG vs BB(!) so it’s not a pure fold even vs UTG.
Should I call or fold the following spot:
as BB vs SB SRP,
flop T77shd B33/C
Turn 2h B75/?
with 86dd
I only have a gutshot, equity is too low to call this big bet.
Indeed solver pure folds 86dd.
Should I call or fold the following spot:
as BB vs BU SRP,
flop T77shd X/B33/C
Turn 2h X/B75/?
with AhJc
I have two overcards, so 6 outs at best. I’m oop. I block his Ah-X bluffs.
Despite that I might be ahread some of the time.
solver is indifferent and continues about 50% of the time(!). KQo is being mostly folded (90% of the time, it is indifferent as well),A9 is a pure fold.
in the following spot:
as BB vs BU SRP,
flop T77shd X/B33/C
Turn 2h X/B75
What hand has more equity, 55 or AJo?
AJo,despite the fact that 55 has more absolute value:
Since BU doesn’t bet his 66, both AJo and 55 beat the bluffs,
but AJo has more outs when behind (when the villain has a Tx for example).
