Lecture 8

Question 1

Bargaining theory and the Iraq war

Answer 1

2. Lessons from studying intervention in Iraq
   Definition of costs of war should include post-war costs
   Real-world interventions involve more actors than simply an
   intervenor and a target state, but theory only focuses on 2 players
   Saddam Hussein didn’t want to clearly signal that he did not have WMD because of
   concerns about threats posed by regional rival states and threats from Shi‘a and
   Kurdish populations within Iraq
   Domestic politics are important: how are national interests defined?
   Who bears the costs of war?
   Cognitive and decision-making biases affect governments’ behavior - Bush administration in U.S., Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq.
   For timeline see lecture 7.

Question 2

Types of warfare

Answer 2

hybrid war
irregular warfare
conventional warfare
terrorism
insurgency subversion
political warfare
information warfare cyber warfare
active measures

Question 3

Into the gray zone

Answer 3

“[G]ray zone challenges are defined as
competitive interactions among and within state
and non-state actors that fall between the
traditional war and peace duality. They are
characterized by ambiguity about the nature of
the conflict, opacity of the parties involved, or
uncertainty about the relevant policy and legal
frameworks.”
“Traditional war is the paradigm.
Gray zone conflict is the norm.

Question 4

Core features of gray zone actions

Answer 4

1. Bounded thresholds
2. (Veiled) intentionality towards a security objective
3. Multidimensional toolkits
4. (Dis)information operations
5. Public- and private-sector domains

Question 5

Advantages gray zone strategies

Answer 5

Competition that “promises warlike outcomes yet fall[s] short of
military provocation”
Generate “risk confusion”
for the target, “hazards associated with action and inaction” against the
threat “appear equally unpleasant”

Question 6

Who uses opportunities in the gray zone?

Answer 6

1. The revisionist paradigm
   States which have lower conventional military capabilities than their
   adversaries use gray zone warfare to challenge those more powerful
   adversaries
2. The universal paradigm
   All states engage in gray zone warfare

Question 7

Missing cases of gray zone warfare

Answer 7

Gray zone as a term written about principally by Western
governments and militaries
It exists already in non-Western military doctrine as a “normal”
category (e.g. PLA)

Question 8

Core features of gray zone actions

Answer 8

1. Bounded thresholds
2. (Veiled) intentionality towards a security objective
3. Multidimensional toolkits
4. (Dis)information operations
5. Public- and private-sector domains

Question 9

Defining the gray zone

Answer 9

“[G]ray zone challenges are defined as
competitive interactions among and within state
and non-state actors that fall between the
traditional war and peace duality. They are
characterized by ambiguity about the nature of
the conflict, opacity of the parties involved, or
uncertainty about the relevant policy and legal
frameworks.”

Question 10

Advantages of Gray zone strategies

Answer 10

Competition that “promises warlike outcomes yet fall[s] short of
military provocation”
Generate “risk confusion”
for the target, “hazards associated with action and inaction” against the
threat “appear equally unpleasant”

Question 11

Who uses opportunities in the gray zone?

Answer 11

1. The revisionist paradigm
   States which have lower conventional military capabilities than their
   adversaries use gray zone warfare to challenge those more powerful
   adversaries
2. The universal paradigm
   All states engage in gray zone warfare

Question 12

Missing cases of gray zone warfare?

Answer 12

Gray zone as a term written about principally by Western
governments and militaries
It exists already in non-Western military doctrine as a “normal”
category (e.g. PLA)