Lecture 4

Question 1

What is uncertainty?

Answer 1

 What is uncertainty? “quality of not being known beyond doubt” an existential condition inherent to human relations. it cant be avoided, but how it is perceived, understood and its results can vary significantly.

Question 2

Types of uncertainty

Answer 2

 1) unresolvable uncertainty created by material factors. Ambiguous symbolism of weapons and their deployment: can offensive and defensive weapons be distinguished? Unresolvable uncertainty can also be created by psychological factors. The other minds problem, limited understanding of intentions and motives, hopes and fears and emotions and feelings on the part of the decision makers of one state about their counterparts elsewhere.
 2) Uncertainty about the future.

Question 3

Anarchy in IR

Answer 3

 Anarchy (absence of authority/government over states), uncertainty and power distributions are the fundamentals.
 Whether inter-state relations are violent or non violent is distinct from presence of anarchy. States exist in a self help world.

Question 4

Uncertainty as driving force in international security

Answer 4

 Uncertainty is a driving force in international security. The purpose of intelligence agencies, supply countries top political leadership with information about; past events, current state of the world, actors’ intentions and likely future state of the world.

Question 5

Consequences uncertainty + anarchy

Answer 5

• Security dilemma
  o Definition: “2 level strategic predicament in relations between states and other actors in which the relevant parties confront a dilemma of interpretation about the motives, intentions and capabilities of others and a dilemma of response about the most rational way of responding to the former.”

Question 6

Solving security dilemma fatalist logic

Answer 6

 Define the other as a rival and therefore maximize one’s own military power (fatalist logic). It assumes that uncertainty is always there and cant change (theory of offensive realism - Mearsheimer). May lead to security paradox (spiral of mutual hostility). “A situation in which 2 or more seeking only to improve their own security, provoke through their words or actions an increase in mutual tension, resulting in less security all round.” (Booth and Wheeler 2008, 9)”

Question 7

Solving security dilemma mitigater logic

Answer 7

 Mitigater logic; create security regimes or an international society. Create greater predictability through mutual learning. States can reveal intentions and reassure rivals. Arms control agreements or unilateral force reductions can show that a security seeking state’s policies are defensive. Developing cooperative and confidence building measures. International institutions create transparency and communication and international law creates reliability.

Question 8

Solving security dilemma transcender logic

Answer 8

Transcender logic; create a different world order. Identify problem and abolish its source. Form security communities (groups of states between which war becomes unthinkable.)

Question 9

Trends in international war today, the long peace?

Answer 9

 An encouraging trend: 1945 – present is an unusual period. No wars between great powers and no states have been eliminated by conquest. Paradox in studying security; the more we learn about threats, the more the world appears to be dangerous, even if it isn’t (in comparative historical terms).
 Skeptics of the long peace; from a statistical perspective, there’s nothing special about current long peace, severity of ww2 is not a statistical anomaly and long peace is statistically rare if it lasts another approximately 100-150 years.

Question 10

How do wars start?

Answer 10

o Several levels of analysis; individual, society/country and international system.
o The security dilemma implies that war is accidental and undesired. “accidents don’t cause war. Decisions cause war. Accidents can trigger decisions; and this may be all that anybody meant. But the distinction needs to be made, because the remedy is not just prevention of accidents, but prevention of decisions.”
 Inherent destructiveness and costly nature of war means all actors involved in a dispute prefer peace to war. Therefore, if there is a risk of war, it means that something stands in the way of peaceful resolution. We need to identify the obstacle.

Question 11

Rationalist explanations for why wars happen

Answer 11

Rationalist explanations; 1) info probs = don’t know the other’s strength. 2) Credible commitment problems and 3) issue indivisibility.