Lecture 7: Real Options Flashcards

1.) Understand real options including the option to delay investment, the option to expand operations, the option to abandon operations, and the option to remain flexible 2.) Understand real options in the context of the six drivers of option value 3.) Understand the use of real options within a decision-tree framework

1
Q

What is a Real Option

A

Option/Option-like features embedded in an investment opportunity

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2
Q

What are the advantages of Real Options over NPV analysis

A

Real Options: Significant flexibility. Creates Flexibility = Creates value

NPV: ‘Now or Never’. Kills Flexibility = Decrease value

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3
Q

First Option: What is an Option to Delay

A

Firm obtains the right to determine the timing of investment

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4
Q

Advantage of Options to Delay

A

Opportunity to respond to new Information

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5
Q

Disadvantage of Options to Delay

A

Forgo cash flows from not investing immediately

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6
Q

What is S/Value of Underlying Asset in “Option to Delay”

A

PV of EXPECTED cash flow from investment

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7
Q

What is X/Exercise Price in “Option to Delay”

A

Cost of investment

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8
Q

When do we early exercise in “Option to Delay”

A

To avoid forgoing cash flows

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9
Q

Second Option: What is an Option to Expand. Can it undertake a negative NPV investment?

A
  • Firm obtains the right to make a follow-up investment following the success of an initial investment

It may undertake an investment that has a negative NPV if it establishes a presence in a market and provide it up with follow-up options

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10
Q

What is S/Value of Underlying Asset in “Option to Expand”

A

PV of INCREMENTAL cash flow from expansion

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11
Q

What is X/Exercise Price in “Option to Expand”

A

Cost of expansion

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12
Q

When do we early exercise in “Option to Delay”

A

To avoid forgoing cash flows

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13
Q

Key difference between “Option to Expand” and “Option to Delay”

A

Option to Delay: Expected Cash Flow

Option to Expand: Incremental Cash Flow

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14
Q

Third Option: What is an Option to Abandon

A
  • Firm obtains the right to abandon an investment and realize any salvage value
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15
Q

What is S/Value of Underlying Asset in “Option to Abandon”

A

PV of cash flow from investment

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16
Q

What is X/Exercise Price in “Option to Abandon”

A

Salvage Value of Assets

17
Q

When do we early exercise in “Option to Abandon”

A

If the salvage value exceeds wealth expected from continuing operations (Deep in-the-money)

18
Q

Fourth Option: What is an “Option to Remain Flexible”

A
  • Firm can revise its operating decision in response to market conditions
19
Q

“Option to Remain Flexible”: Examples

A

Option to alter the rate of production in response to changes in demand

Options to switch production lines

Options to switch inputs and technology to incorporate more efficient productive processes.

20
Q

“Option to Expand”: Example

A

Companies establish small negative NPV operations in new markets to develop a ‘footprint’ for future expansion’

21
Q

When are real options exceptionally important

A
  1. ) When the option value is “At the Money”

2. ) High uncertainty (volatility) and High flexibility (management) environments

22
Q

Where do we observe real options (industries)

A

Industries like mining, technology, energy (uncertain industries). NOT low-growth stable industries like woolworths

Allows for managerial flexibility

23
Q

What is S/Value of Underlying Asset in “Option to remain Flexible”

A

PV of INCREMENTAL cash flow from ALTERNATIVE operation

24
Q

What is X/Exercise Price in “Option to remain Flexible”

A

Cost of Switching to Alternative

25
Q

When do we early exercise in “Option to remain Flexible”

A

To avoid forgoing cash flows

26
Q

In terms of a real option, the cash flows from the project play the same role as:

A

Dividends (Not stock price!!!)

27
Q

Are most investment decisions irreversible

A

Yes, hence options are significant. Investment opportunities are like call options.

28
Q

Explain what Dixit and Pindyck (1995) mean when they say managers should require more than just positive NPV from a project.

A
  • By exercising the decision to invest, the manager is “killing” the TV associated with the option.
  • NPV of immediate commencement of project needs to compensate the manager for the loss of the option / flexibility to invest at a later date.
29
Q

How does real options explain why we observe exporters are slow to cease supplying overseas markets following adverse changes in exchange rates.

A

Option to remain flexible. By exercising/removing from marketing = give u option to continue operations if economic circumstances change.

Withdrawing too early might lead to irreversible loss of tangible + intangible asset used to build operation in export market.

30
Q

What type of option is an option to expand operations?

In what situation might an option to expand operations be rationally exercised early?

A

Long Call.

  • If you believed that by not exercising you were missing out on some cash flows associated with the project.
31
Q

The option to expand operations may decrease in value as the riskiness of the
incremental cash flows from the expanded operations increases. (T/F)

A

True.

Systematic risk of the incremental cash flows increases = PV (Incremental Cash Flows) decline as IV drops
.
If the PV of the incremental cash flows was unaffected (and it was total risk of the cash flows
affected) – then we might expect an increase in the value of the option

32
Q

When managers evaluate a project embedded with an option to delay, they should set the hurdle rate lower than the weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) (T/F)

A

False. Hurdle right should be higher.

  • Managers require more than just positive NPV when they evaluate a project embedded with an option to delay (NPV of taking the project immediately must be
    sufficiently large to cover the loss in the value of real option)