Lecture 7- New Anarchy Flashcards
5 crisis
- The ascent of extremism/terrorism- yet the rise in this could just be following trends
- The refugee crisis: external, or self-inflicted
- Rise of authoritarianism
- The Internet Revolution, populism/securitization
- War in Ukraine & end of the liberal world order as we knew it
Labelling something as a crisis allows those in power to take more executive power
What is cashing in the peace dividend?
A political slogan popularized by George H. W. Bush and Thatcher in the light of the 1988-1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union which described the economic benefit of a decrease in defence spending. It didn’t last long.
End of history debate: Fukuyama, The End of History (1992) Flaws
- The end point of mankind’s ideological revolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government
- Benjamin Barber (1992, 1995), Samuel P. Huntington (1993, 1996): various Western
commentators have described the thesis of The End of History as flawed because it does not sufficiently take into account the power of ethnic loyalties and religious fundamentalism as a counter-force to the spread of liberal democracy, with the specific example of Islamic fundamentalism, or radical Islam, as the most powerful of these.
Samuel P. Huntington’s “The Clash of Civilizations” offered a counterpoint to Fukuyama’s thesis, arguing that cultural and religious identities, rather than ideological or economic factors, would be the primary source of conflict in the post-Cold War world. Huntington proposed that global politics would be characterized by clashes between civilizations, defined by shared cultural values and historical experiences, rather than ideological competition between liberal democracy and authoritarianism.
Fukuyama’s thesis emphasizes the triumph of liberal democracy as the final form of government and the end point of ideological development. In contrast, Barber’s “Jihad vs. McWorld” focuses on the tensions between globalizing forces and traditional, local identities, suggesting that cultural and identity-based conflicts are ongoing and shape global politics.
Early post-cold War backs
Difficult transition post-communist societies
1st Gulf War 1991
Yugoslavia 1991-’99
Civil wars in Algeria (‘91-’02), Sri Lanka (‘83-’09), Somalia (‘91-’95)
Genocide in Rwanda (‘94), Congo (‘96-’97)
Reordering International Relations after 1990
Return to the German question- The German question- what are its borders, what is it culturally- west east middle and its identity who belongs there german speakers, blood foreigners
European integration: a halting engine?
Transformation of the global liberal order?
European integration: a halting machine?
First acceleration:
Monetary Union, Euro
Maastricht EU-treaty ’92
Enlargement:
’95: Austria, Finland, Sweden
Amsterdam ’97 en Nice ’01 (invitations to Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Estonia and Cyprus)
Large extension ’04 en ’07
Constitutional crisis:
20005: failure of Constitutional Referendum
2007: Lisbon Treaty
Return of history or from history for EU?
Return of History:
Rise of Nationalism and Populism:
Some argue that recent trends in European politics, including the rise of nationalist and populist movements, represent a return to historical patterns of identity-based politics and conflict.
The resurgence of nationalist sentiments in countries like Hungary, Poland, and Italy, as well as the Brexit vote in the UK, are cited as evidence of a “return of history” characterized by renewed emphasis on national sovereignty and identity.
Challenges to European Integration:
The EU has faced significant challenges in recent years, including the migration crisis, economic disparities between member states, and debates over the future of European integration.
These challenges have led to tensions within the EU and raised questions about the viability of the European project, leading some to argue that Europe is reverting to a more fragmented and divided state.
Geopolitical Shifts:
The changing geopolitical landscape, marked by the resurgence of great power competition between the US, China, and Russia, has led to uncertainties about Europe’s role in the world.
Some view this as a return to historical patterns of power politics and competition, with Europe once again becoming a battleground for competing interests.
From History:
Continued Progress and Integration:
Despite challenges, the EU has continued to make progress in areas such as economic integration, trade, and cooperation on security and defense.
The EU’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, including the adoption of the NextGenerationEU recovery plan, demonstrates its capacity for resilience and adaptation in the face of crises.
Strengthening of Institutions:
Efforts to strengthen EU institutions, such as the European Central Bank and the European Stability Mechanism, have enhanced the EU’s ability to respond to economic and financial challenges.
Initiatives such as the European Green Deal and the Conference on the Future of Europe reflect ongoing efforts to address common challenges and shape the EU’s future direction.
Cultural and Social Integration:
Despite nationalist and populist movements, there are signs of deepening cultural and social integration within Europe, facilitated by initiatives such as the Erasmus+ program and cross-border cooperation projects.
Shared European values, such as democracy, rule of law, and human rights, continue to serve as a unifying force within the EU.
Rise of Jihadism
Fourth wave: “Holy terrorism” → “Holy terrorists” aspire to create a sacred state in the present – to accelerate or to prelude towards the Apocalypse, inspired by the “eschaton”, the end of times.
- Reaction to 19th century colonization and missionaries
- Revival of Salafism (back to pure faith)
- Reinvention of tradition: after 1918, again in the 1960s, in 1979
- Narrative “small jihad” (against takfiri)
- Creation of AQ in the jihad against the SU
Al Qaida & ‘9/11’
Bin Laden (1957-2011):
Studies in Jedda, islamic financier and fighter
‘Al Qaida’ (basis) v.a. 1988
Exile in Sudan & Afghanistan (under Taliban)
First attack on WTC, 1993, transition from near to far enemy
Anti-US narrative:
Troops US in Saoedi-Arabië
Against oppression of Ummah
Appeal to muslim unity: through violent jihad
refugee crisis
2015-2019
Causes: war in Syria, civil wars and strife in North Africa, Near East
Top three contingents: Syrian, Afghan, Iraqi
58% males over 18, over 30.000 deaths
Solution: relocation, Asylum reform, Turkey-deal, quota settlement, end of war in Syria, increase sea and border controls
Is it self inflicted?
Return of authortarianism
Resurgence of Russia, Crimean war (MH17)
China and BRICS
Ascent of authoritarian leaders:
Erdogan
Rogue playes in the Middle East
Israel
Iran/Saudi power play
Internet revolution, populism/ securitization
Internet as means
Internet as platform
Internet as weapon
Internet as autonomous generator of radical content
Van scherm naar straat’ & ‘Spelen met vuur’
Hyperbole on the internet: via intraplatformcommunication towards large media-ecosysts via influencers
Trickling through of conspiracies into social movements: clustering into larger protest networks
Trickling through from radicalization of discourse into radicalization on the street
Superficial randomness of violent incidents
Massive dissemination of hate speech via online media
Expansion of global online network/platform
Statistically, chances of self incendiary radicalization increases
Lone operators draw on global support base
Example: Capitol Riot (2021), Christchurch (2019)
War in Ukraine: The Return of (revisionist) Big History Two myths
‘Ukraine is run by nazi’s’: Neo-nazi’s and extreme right wing militia participated in the war in 2014, amongst them the Azov-regiment. Today, the regimend has been disbanded, members integrated in the national army. No right wing party is represented in the Ukrainian parliament (NB: on the Russian side, nazi emblems are sported, white supremacist ideology voiced
‘Ukraine is not a country’. Ukraine was a nation state in the 19th century, is an independent, recognized state since 1991, has its own distinct language and culture, granted to them by the Paris Charter (1990), Budapest Memorandum (1994), Minsk Agreement (2015), signed by Russia as well
“NATO did it” vs. Putin’s domestic radicalization turn
Domestic factors
Internal calls for democratization (2003/4, colour revolution)
Dissolution former Soviet empire, war in Georgia 2008
Increasing demonstrations in 2011
Economic stagnation, lack technolocigal innovation, showing since 2008
Alternative quests for global significance: glory, holy Russia
International factors
Westernization of young generation
Post-Soviet states and Eastern Europe draw to EU and NATO
Global rise of illiberal governments, US losing its power as hegemon
Spread of ultranationalist ideas
More energy alternatives, less dependence on Russian gas
Putins Radicalisation
- New state ideology
- Demonisation enemies
- Mobilisation Holy Russian Empire
- Apocalyptical revenge scenario
