lecture 4: risk perceptions Flashcards
elements of risk
- likelihood: how likely is it?
- severity: how severe is it? How acceptable?
- timing: direct, few weeks, 10 years?
What is an availability heuristic and what are the consequences of it?
- perceived likelihood is determined by how easy/difficult it’s to bring particular instances to mind
- What is cognitively accessible to you, influences perceive likelood
Consequences:
- risks that are highly accessible are overestimated (example: plane crash 9/11 more likely to happen than die of obesitas)
- dependent from the role of media (priming, agenda setting) (e.g. overestimation terror attacks bc of priming)
- more publicity, makes people think something is more likely to occur (e.g. murder over suicide)
representativeness heuristic
- events that are representative or typical of a class are assigned a high probability of occurence
- We judge our likelihood on basis of how well we match the stereotype of the people who experience the event
- example: 10x red when playing roulette: 11th roulette change bigger on black (not true), engineer/lawyer example
anchoring heurstic
- Judgements are influenced by a particular anchor that is given
- People make adjustments from this starting value when assessing probabilities
- Example: Estimates of the number of murders per year are dependent on other examples given
> 1,000 deaths by electrocution
> 50,000 deaths by motor accidents
Displaying risks: percentages vs. frequencies
Percentage: Difficult to understand
- people interpret a risk of 50% literally
- People ignore baseline information (How many people are there in a group?)
Example: the chance of getting the disease is 50%, 2 will get it, 2 will not. Those 2 already have it, so I’ll not get it –> NOT true, chance doesn’t have a memory (you’re still able to get it)
Frequences: More easy to understand
displaying risks: verbal labels
examples: extremely rare, sometimes, often etc voordelen - easy to understand - takes uncertainty into account - don't imply precision nadelen: - imprecise, inexact, vague - huge variance in term of how labels are interpreted
displaying risks: form of presentation
absolute risk presentation: your risk is reduced with 5%: from 10% to 5%
relative risk presentation: your risk is reduced with 50%
cumulative risk presentation: little risk (eating 1 candybar) can result in substantial cumulative risk when doing it a longer period (1 candybar per day for years)
article natter & berry results
2x2 design: baseline info (yes/no & info about risk-reduction after flue shot (absolute/relative) baseline info= 10% of population will be affected absolute= risk 5% lower & relative= reduced by 50%
results
chance of getting flue without flue shot (actual % is 10):
without baseline info: 46%
with baseline info: 16%
relative risk: 35%
absolute 27%
–> same goes with getting the flue with flue shot
With baseline information:
- higher satisfaction. higher perception of effectiveness, stronger intention,
- more accurate risk estimates
- Doesn’t matter if you give an absolute or relative presentation of the risks
Without baseline information:
- higher effectiveness & intention with relative risk info.
- Relative presentation seems more effective when not giving baseline information.
definition unrealistic optimism and dispositional optimism
Unrealisitc optimism = When you think that it is less likely that something bad will happen to you, while this is or this cannot be true OR When you think that it is more likely that something good will happen to you, while this is or this cannot be true
Dispositional optimism = a personality trait representing generally positive expectations about the future (these people can still experience unrealistic optimism)
absolute vs comparative unrealistic optimism
Absolute unrealistic optimism = too optimistic compared to quantitative objective standard
Comparative unrealistic optimism = too optimistic compared to outcomes of one’s peers
- When having a lot of control –> more unrealistic optimism
- When having less control –> less unrealistic optimism
why do people display unrealistic optimism?
- motivational explanation
- people are motivated to believe that they are unlikely to experience negative outcomes - cognitive explanation
- people have more info about themselves than the ‘average’ person
consequences of unrealistic optimism
- affect (how we feel)
- student experience more negative affect after receiving result –> decrease in self-esteem and wellbeing - decision making
- about paying of debts: participant make poorer financial decision
- quitting smoking: smokers too positive that they can quit smoking - behavior
- participant with more optimism bet more money on knowledge quiz
results article dillard et al.
About quitting smoking
- true unrealistic optimism vs accurate
- perceived vs. objective risk
- dependent variables: smoking myths, quit intentions
Result:
- Lower perceived risk = more unrealistic optimism
- More unrealistic optimism = lower intention to quit moking
Why are frequencies more easy to use (Gigerenzer, 2002)?
Because of:
- Computational simplicity
- Fit with how we encountered info about risks during evolution (evolutionary explanation)
Name all of the heuristics mentioned in lecture 4
- Availability heuristic
- Representativeness heuristic
- Anchoring heuristic
