Lecture 19 + 20 Flashcards
You are researching a biotic process that controls the chemistry of the environment and your colleague is studying how the structure and function of that same ecosystem is controlled by geochemical processes. What field of science are you both working in?
Biogeochemistry
According to the Rockstrom paper, which of Earth’s critical “life-support” systems has been perturbed most beyond Rockstrom’s “safe” level?
Biodiversity
Sulfur pollution was primarily responsible for what environmental problem in North America and Europe?
Acid rain
Prior to the Industrial Revolution, what was the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and what is the current level?
- Below 265 ppm pre Industrial Revolution; 200 ppm in 2014
- Below 200 ppm pre Industrial Revolution; 4,000 ppm in 2014
- Below 265 pre Industrial Revolution; 398 ppm in 2014
- Below 200 ppm pre Industrial Revolution; 30,000 ppm in 2014
Below 265 pre Industrial Revolution; 398 ppm in 2014
How many degrees Celsius was the global average temperature in 2011 above the long-term average from the early 20th century?
0.7 degrees Celsius
True or false: In recent years (1993-2013) the global rate of increase in carbon dioxide concentrations has levelled off.
False
What most explains the flux of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere from 1960 to present?
Fossil fuel combustion
Svante Arrhenius (1859 – 1927)
Published on fossil fuels, CO2, and the greenhouse effect in 1896
- Predicted a doubling of CO2 would warm Earth by 1.6ºC to 6ºC
- IPCC 2013 says 2º to 4.5ºC)
- Predicted it would take 3,000 years for fossil fuel burning to double CO2
- At current trends, it will take less than another 75 years
Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?
The exponential rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide will tend to become a significant factor and by early in the next century will have driven the planetary temperature beyond the limits experienced during the last 1,000 years
Half of all fossil fuels ever used have been burned in the
Past 25-30 years –massive releases of carbon dioxide
Earth is now warmer than in the past (probably 120,000 years)
The keeling curve
Dr. Charles David Keeling (1928-2005)
- developed instruments to measure atmospheric CO2
- established one of longest running continuous CO2 measurement, Mauna Loa (Hawaii)
- prior to these measurements, most scientists assumed that oceans absorb all fossil fuel CO2
Atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory
For climate stability, CO2 should be 350 ppm or less
The annual oscillation in the “Keeling” curve is best explained by
A) a seasonal temperature effect on the instrument measuring CO
B) a seasonal effect on CO2 uptake and release by terrestrial ecosystems, with greater uptake during the northern hemisphere summer
C) a seasonal effect on CO2 uptake and release by oceans, with greater uptake during the northern hemisphere summer
D) greater use of fossil fuels by society during the northern hemisphere winter
E) a seasonal effect on CO2 uptake and release by terrestrial ecosystems, with greater uptake during the southern hemisphere summer
B) a seasonal effect on CO2 uptake and release by terrestrial ecosystems, with greater uptake during the northern hemisphere summer
Seasonality of carbon storage much greater in terrestrial ecosystems than in oceans, and much more surface area of land in northern hemisphere
From 2000-2009, net accumulation in atmosphere of ~4.1 Pg C/yr
Compare with release from fossil fuel combustion of 7.7 Pg C/yr
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
Deforestation results in CO2 flux to the atmosphere, as tree biomass is burned or decomposes, and soil organic carbon is respired (NEP<0)
Based on 2000-2009
Net accumulation in atmosphere of 4.1 Pg C/yr
Release from fossil fuels and deforestation = 8.8 Pg C/yr
-> 4.7 Pg C/year were going somewhere else!
1. fossil fuel emissions
2. deforestation
3. atmospheric CO2
Carbon sinks
Net accumulation of carbon in terrestrial or ocean biomes
As of 2015, the major sinks of carbon that were slowing the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere are:
A) 80% uptake by forests, and 20% by oceans
B) roughly 50% by forests and 50% by oceans
C) 80% uptake by oceans, and 20% by forests
D) highly variable from year to year, making any generalization difficult
E) too uncertain for anyone to have a good idea!
B) roughly 50% by forests and 50% by oceans
Main sources of carbon: combustion = 7.7; deforestation = 1.1
Large exchanges with terrestrial ecosystems/oceans. Net uptake =
Terrestrial ecosystems net uptake = 2.4 (NEP)
Oceans net uptake = 2.3
-> based on physics and chemistry, as well as ecosystem metabolism
The ocean sinks are temporary, and the carbon is “stored” as CO2 in the deep ocean, which will eventually be released
- Dissolving of CO2 into cold water, with sinking of water masses that are rich in CO2
- Biological pump (net ecosystem production, with sinking of organic matter)
Total estimated sources do not match total estimated sinks.
This imbalance is an active area of research.
Sources: fossil carbon (includes carbonation sink), land-use change
Sinks: ocean sink, land sink, atmosphere
The year-to-year variation in CO2 uptake by oceans and land is:
A) well understood by scientists, and due to climatic variation.
B) probably just the result of the quality of the data, and not true variation at all.
C) is not well understood at all, but may be due to climatic variation as it affects the oceans.
D) is not well understood at all, but may be due to climatic variation as it affects terrestrial ecosystems.
E) “C” and “D”
E) “C” and “D”
Not well understood at all, but seems real, and probably due to climatic influences on both the oceans and terrestrial ecosystem
Ocean:
-> changes in ocean conveyor belt, due to changes in precipitation, ice melting, and river runoff from year-to-year?
-> also, changes in NPP and NEP in high latitude waters, as wind-driven mixing of surface ocean waters varies?
Terrestrial:
Change in NEP, as NPP and respiration respond to differences in temperature and precipitation? Also, large fires??
Why might terrestrial C sinks exist? And how might C sinks act in the future?
- Reforestation after agricultural abandonment?
- Fertilization response to increasing CO2?
- Fertilization response to increased nitrogen deposition onto forests?
-> Remember: increasing C sink implies increasing NEP, and not just NPP (decomposition might also be increased by nitrogen deposition)
Carbon accumulates in an ecosystem only when
GPP exceeds the rate of whole ecosystem respiration
Soil decomposition rate increases
exponentially with temperature
- and remember how much soil organic carbon in some “cold” biomes
- soil is the largest repository of organic matter on land, storing more carbon than all vegetation and atmosphere combined
Predicted change in precipitation – 2095 relative to late 20th Century
ranges from -20% to 20%
- significant decrease (-20% to -10%) in lower latitudes
- significant increase in poles and higher latitudes (10%-20%)
True or false: Ecologists and climate scientists well understand how carbon sinks in terrestrial ecosystems and the oceans will change in the future
False
There is little agreement among global models with regard to how much atmospheric carbon dioxide will be taken up and stored by terrestrial ecosystems in the future
- many overheated forests may soon release more carbon than they absorb
Global models diverge greatly in their predictions of the extent of uptake of carbon dioxide by the oceans in the future, although
all predict greater uptake than at present
The great conveyor belt has been slowing
-> which would likely slow the uptake of carbon dioxide by the oceans
This slowing is NOT included in any of the global CO2 models
COP21 United Nations Paris Accord target (Dec 2015): “well below 2ºC”
Clear recognition that warming beyond 1.5 is dangerous
- November 2021, all nations of the world agreed at COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland, that 1.5º C needs to be the goal.
IPCC 2022, final sentence:
“The scientific evidence is unequivocal: climate change is a threat to human well- being and the health of the planet. Any further delay in concerted global action will miss a brief and rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future.”
Some good news:
NY State Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (CLCPA) of 2019 mandates rapid reduction in emissions from all economic sectors across the State, including 40% within 7 years
- emissions reductions driven by moving to 100% renewable electricity, and by beneficial electrification of transportation and heating (i.e., electric cars, trucks, and busses; heat pumps)
- these sort of emission reductions are exactly what is required to meet the COP21 & 26 goals, if carried out globally
-> Can NYS set an example?
The IPCC reports historical levels of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere over the last 10,000 years. How are they able to do this?
They use bubbles of atmospheric gas trapped in ice samples
True or false: Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are increasing at one of the fastest rates in the the last several hundred thousand years due to human activities.
True
While some carbon accumulates in the atmosphere the rest is taken up by
Oceans and terrestrial systems
True or false: Fossil fuels contribute to global warming through the carbon cycle in part because fossil fuels are extracted from the ground, and then burned. This adds carbon that was in the ground to the atmosphere.
True
As atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have increased, we could predict an increase in CO2 diffusion from the atmosphere into the oceans. However, there is a reduced net rate of carbon dioxide uptake by oceans. Why?
- This is due to supersaturation of the oceans and the inability of any more carbon dioxide to be assimilated.
- This is due to decreased atmospheric temperatures that decrease the solubility of carbon dioxide.
- This is the result of increased atmospheric temperatures that increase the solubility of carbon dioxide.
- The reduced net rate of carbon dioxide uptake is due to increased surface ocean temperatures that lower the solubility of carbon dioxide.
The reduced net rate of carbon dioxide uptake is due to increased surface ocean temperatures that lower the solubility of carbon dioxide