L3 Heuristic Flashcards
What is probability matching?
Tversky and Edwards found that judges probability matched when they ask to predict which of two lights was going to turn on next
Constantly choosing left would lead to 70% success
Results didn’t depend on whether they were made aware of the probabilities
What is local representativeness?
If PS are told to write down a random sequence they tend to try and make it look random so they exclude long runs and make it look more equifrequent
What is gambler’s fallacy?
In a coin toss every event is independent from the last, there is no predictability
This is different for lottery balls for example
What is the hot hand?
Participants massively misjudge the non-random-sequence with fast alterations as chance, and thought the chance sequence was non-random
What is base rate neglect?
Kaheman and colleagues showed that humans often ignore prior probabilities or are completely unfamiliar with the concept
What is the representativeness heuristic?
Occurs when we estimate the probability of an event based on how similar it is to a known situation
We compare it to a situation, prototype, or stereotype we already have in mind
What is the conjunction fallacy?
The co-occurrence of two events cannot be more likely than the probability of them alone
Specific scenarios appear more likely than general ones because they are more representative of how we imagine them
What are the criticisms of Kahneman et al’s methods?
Methodological - ps may consider answers as mutually exclusive
