Judgement and Reasoning exam Flashcards
_____________ is deciding whether specific premises allow you to draw a particular conclusion (using principles of logic)
Deductive Reasoning
______________ are a set of premises and a conclusion
Syllogisms
_____________ is the tendency for people to rather try to confirm a hypothesis than to disprove it
Confirmation bias
The ________________ is When dealing with possible ‘gains’, people tend to avoid risks.
When dealing with possible ‘losses’, people tend to seek risks.
Framing effect
______________ is a general strategy that usually produces the correct solution
Heuristics
_________________ is judging that a sample is likely if it is similar to the population from which it was selected
Representative heuristic
The _________________ is how often the item occurs in the population
Base rate
The _________________ is underestimating important information about base rates
Base rate fallacy
_____________ states that judgements should be influenced by likelihood ratio AND base rate
Bayes theorem
The _________________ is the idea that all other things being equal, how likely is it that the description applies to one population vs. another population?
Likelihood ratio
_____________ samples are more likely to deviate from the overall mean
Small
The _______________ is the probability of the conjunction of two
events cannot be larger than the probability of
either of the constituent events
Conjunction rule
The _______________ is judging that the probability of the conjunction
of two events is greater than the probability of
one of the constituent events
Conjunction fallacy
The ________________________ causes us to ignore important statistical information
Representativeness heuristic
The ________________ is the idea that probability estimates are affected by how easy it is to think of examples
The Availability Heuristic
The _____________ is the idea that estimates begin with a first approximation (an anchor) and then we make adjustments to that number on the basis of additional information
The Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic
