Influences on Voting Behaviour Flashcards
Which 6 social factors affect voting behaviour?
Social class
Ethnicity
Gender
Education
Region
Age
Until the 60s what percentage of people voted the way their social class indicated?
80%
Which voters did the CP rely on?
A, B, C1
Which voters did the LP rely on?
C2, D, E
In 1964 how many DE voters did Labour win?
64%
Harold Wilsons party
in 1964 how many AB voters di CP win?
78%
Alec Douglas-Home’s party
What is voting attachment?
Close link between class and party support
How was the way you vote a reflection of your class?
MC/UC voting for CP added to your status
WC and voting for LP expressed class solidarity
What did LP/CP develop?
Strong deep roots within communities-culture of voting
How was voting selfish?
CP perceived to govern in the interests of MC
LP developed policies to help the WC
Therefore rational to choose party associated with class
What % of AB voted leave in 2016 EU referendum?
43
What % of C1 voted leave in 2016 EU referendum?
51
What % of C2 voted leave in 2016 EU referendum?
64
What % of DE voted leave in 2016 EU referendum?
64
Which group are most likely to support UKIP?
WC
What could UKIP support be an example of?
Instrumental voting as WC may be most disadvantaged by EU membership-the perceived adverse effect on employment and wages created by free movement within the EU.
What is instrumental voting?
Where people favour a party that they believe will do best for themselves through its policies.
What is salient voting?
Voting on issues such as environment and higher education
What is the decline of class-based voting known as?
Partisan dealignment
Since 1970s what has voting behaviour been based on?
Govs valence and the salience of specific issues
Why did Maggy T start her 1979 election campaign in Labour Cardiff?
clever attempt to disassociate the party from being too MC
Why was Maggy Ts campaign successful?
Winter of Discontent-strike action
11% swing to the CP by C2 voters and 9% swing of DE voters
appealed to WC
How did BJ get a landslide victory in 2019?
Had DE support as voters felt CP could deliver Brexit and control immigration.
Majority of 80 seats and breakthrough of red wall seats
Who are deviant voters?
difficult to predict how they will vote
Who are floating voters?
vote unpredictably and are liable to change the way they vote fairly often
In the 2024 election who voted Reform?
C2DE with 20%
Is the correlation between social class and voting increasing?
No it is decreasing with only 27% of AB voting CP in 2024 when in 1964 it was 78%
What is class dealignment?
Fewer people define themself as a social class
What sort of policies do parties tend to adopt?
Centrist and consensual to appeal to a wider class base
Evident in Starmer’s 2024 Labour manifesto
Evidence supporting class based voting
Expression of their class and culture
Correlation between AB with CP and DE for LP has always been strong-North/South divide
Continued relevance of social class and socio-economic position-have the same issues
Evidence against class based voting
Instrumental voting-motivated by self interest which will have a favourable outcome
Partisan dealignment/Class dealignment
Valence has tended to replace social class
Floating voters are unpredictable
Who do BME tend to vote for?
Labour
Who are the BME?
black and minority ethnic groups
in 2019 what % of BME voted Labour
64%
Why do BME vote labour and what does this suggest?
Commonwealth immigrant communities generally in C2 DE classes-vote labour due to high spending on welfare state and trade union movement
linked to socio-economic factors with left-wing preferences-more based on income and class
How has Labour shown commitment towards multiculturalism?
First and subsequent Race Relations Act in 1965, 1968 and 1976 to outlaw discrimination
Who created hostile legacy between CP and immigrant communities?
Enoch Powell ‘Rivers of Blood’ speech in 1968 which called for an end to Commonwealth immigration
How many Labour seats in Greater London did LP win in 2017?
JC strong empathy for BME groups contributed to LP winning 49 out of 73 seats of just a 45% white British population
Which constituency is the most ethnically diverse?
East Ham 77% non-white population
What was the result in East Ham in 2017?
Labour won 83.2% of the vote share
Why are Hindus and Sikhs voting CP?
Have prospered more than black and Muslim populations so are becoming increasingly MC
With MC status comes support for CP
In 2019 what % of white voters voted for LP and CP?
48% CP 29% LP
in 2024 election what did YouGov report about black voters?
72% planned to vote LP
Is voting gendered?
It is not
1945-1980 parties attempted to get the ‘housewives’ vote by articulating women’s concerns with family issues. Now as men and women play similar roles in society, this is less relevant.
In 2024 how did men and women vote?
Men 24% CP 34% LP
Women 26% CP 35% LP
How did people with higher educational qualifications usually vote?
CP
When did the relationship between education and voting change?
2017
Who did CP increase their support among and why?
lowest social class with fewest educational qualifications.
EU referendum advocating for stricter controls on immigration, thereby increasing their support among white WC voters who feel threatened by globalisation and voted leave.
In 2019 how many LP supporters swung to CP?
There was a 9.5 point swing from Labour to CP among those with no qualifications
Why is LP achieving higher levels of support among people with more qualifications?
LPs more liberal approach to immigration and its more nuanced approach to Brexit.
Remain voters dismayed by what they see as Conservative insularity.
What is insularity?
Focus on themselves and don’t look beyond.
Island mentality
What does Goodhart say in ‘The Road to Somewhere’ 2017?
Contrasted the less educated ‘somewheres’ with the better educated ‘anywheres’ who have educational qualifications to take advantage of globalisation.
2017-LP generated increased support among the ‘anywheres’, while CP achieved their own breakthrough with the ‘somewheres’
in 2024 how did people with degrees/without voted?
Degree/higher:
LP 42% CP 18%
No qualifications:
LP 28% CP 31%
In 2024 who supported Reform?
Those with lower level of education receiving 23% of the vote.
Only 8% with higher education
Which group did LDs and GP do well amongst?
Those with a higher education
What is the general rule of voting and region?
2017
LP do best in industrial North-53% LP
CP do best in the South- 54% CP
How many seats changed hands in 2017 general election?
71/650-just 11%
Seats don’t change because of the inbuilt majority that a party has in a particular region
Why do CP have supports in the South and ethnically white rural areas?
Prosperous regions with high levels of home ownership and little traditional heavy industrial trade unionism
Why does LP lead in the North?
Ethnically diverse and large WC populations and major centres of industrial production
Why is regional voting actually class based?
Southeast is much wealthier than the rest of England that favour more left-wing policies
What was the anomaly with regional voting?
2019 Conservative break-through in the Red Wall seats which are traditionally working class.
Why was Mansfield significant in the 2019 election?
CP won the seat which had been LP since 1923
Why is voter dealignment important?
Influences both class and regional voting as people vote according to issues rather than traditional loyalties.
Where is voter dealignment prominent?
Greater London
soaring cost of home ownership and levels of inequality, 2016 voted Remain, the multiculturalism and metropolitan values Labour espouses have further entrenched its support in the capital.
2017 genny lec LP 49 seats 21 CP
How did 2024 election change the electoral camp?
- sea of red reminiscent of 1997 has CP reeling
- Reform’s entrance to mainstream UK politics
- Lib Dems more than 7o MPs-more than ever
Evidence supporting regional voting
North/South divide
2016 EU referendum remain votes dominated Scotland and London which traditionally vote Labour
Urban areas favour LP rural favour CP
53% North East voted LP in 2024
Evidence against regional voting
2019 Red Wall seats to the CP
North has more C2DE voters
Issue based voting-2017 stance on European vote salient issue
What is the correlation between voting and age?
Strong correlation
In 2024 what % of over 70s voted CP?
46%
In 2024 what % of over 70s voted LP?
20%
What is the median age of a LP voter?
46
What is the median age of a CP voter?
63
What are some factors for the relationship between age and voting behaviour?
Young hold more left-wing views
CP seen as more family friendly as they are more sympathetic to property owners
CP is more Eurosceptic, lower taxation-older people who have paid off their mortgage
Young adopt more radical ideas
Why do CP benefit from the ‘grey vote’?
Older people are more likely to vote so it gives them an inbuilt advantage
What did Corbyn do in 2017?
Youth-focused campaign (abolish tuition fees etc) attracted more younger people to vote than any election since1992
