Heuristics

Question 1

define heuristic

Answer 1

process/methos that allows someone to make decisions/udgements

Question 2

Describe Tversky and Kahnmen (1983) conjunction

Answer 2

pps given story of ‘linda’
31yr single, outspoken, bright, studied philosophy
concerned w/ discrimination, social inustice and participates in antinuclear demonstrations

85% pps report that the probability of linda being a FEMINIST bank teller > ust a bank teller

Question 3

describe the conunction fallacy

Answer 3

assumed that specific conditions are more probable than a single general one

prob just a bank teller 0.05
prob feminist bank teller 0.95
0.05 x 0.95 = 0.047

prob of two events occuring in conjunction less than or equal to prob of one occuring alone
BUT heuristic suggest more logically representative of her even if mathematically less probable

Question 4

describe Fiedler (1988)

Answer 4

pps linda story 
91% conjunction fallacy
THEN
pps "100 people fit into the following description.."
only 22% commit to conjunction fallacy

Question 5

descibe Sedlmeier and Gigerenzer (2001)

Answer 5

bayesian reasoning - means of quantifying uncertainty, how knowledge of prior predicts outcome of future
suggest easier in frequency based tan probability based format
why fiedler found lower conjunction fallacy - more representative

Question 6

describe gamblers fallacy

Answer 6

uses representativemenss heuristic - degree to which a is representative of b
ie believe more likely H H T H T T H than H H H H H
- therefore would lead to betting if something hadnt occured for a while

Question 7

Describe tversky and Kahenmen (1973) gambling p1

Answer 7

from a sample of 100
‘jack’ written as sterotypical engineer
‘Dick’ written as uninformative
- engineer or lawyer?
half told 30:70 engineer:lawyer & half told 70:30 engineer:lawyer
dick engineer 50% for both groups
Jack reported engineer 90% for both groups

Question 8

describe the base rate effect

Answer 8

t&k (1973) prob jack is engineer should be lower if 30:70
show we are insensitive to base rates

base rate - representation of world at the time ie more christians

Question 9

Describe Tversky and Kahenmen (1973) gambling p2

Answer 9

babies born in 2 hospitals - small hospital has 15 births p/day, large hopsital 45 births p/day
which hospital is most likely o have ‘unusual days’ where >60% are boys
- most respond 50:50 (gender 50:50)
BUT - smaller as more likely to represent extremes
- insensitive to base rate sample size

Question 10

define the availability heuristic

Answer 10

estimation of frequency based on recall ease

report how frequent we think something is based on how easily it comes to mind

Question 11

describe Tversky and Kahenmen (1973) availability p3

Answer 11

pps think more likely words begin in ‘R’ than have r as third letter in word
words beginning with r come to mind easier

understanding becomes distorted by experience

ie think certain cars all faulty if one is

Question 12

describe Herbert (2010) availability

Answer 12

availability heurisitc occurs because if something comes to mind quickly then it must be trustworthy

Question 13

describe Tversky and Koehler (1994) theory

Answer 13

“support theory”

pps. “how likely are you to die on holiday next year” vs. “how likley are you to die on holiday as a result of disease/accident”
- increased subective prob that report more likely to die when cause of death specified

different descriptions of same event give rise to diff judgements
- info more available and attend on less obv aspects

Question 14

describe Mondel (2005) support

Answer 14

pps report prob terrorist attack

Question 15

define anchoring

Answer 15

tendency to rely too heavily on first piece of info offered - influence numerical estimate
ie last no of identity no influence how much people pay for a product

Question 16

describe Englich and Mussweiler (2007) anchoring

Answer 16

prosecutor goal of high 34m sentence or low sentence
influence judges with 15yr experience
sentence av 8m more if high sentence than low for same crime

Question 17

describe Chapman and banstein (1996) anchoring

Answer 17

personal injury claims
jurors different monetary request for same ovarian cancer caused by prescription drug
$100, $20,000, $5m or $1b
amount award increase with goal increase

Question 18

explain the law on credit cards

Answer 18

uk credit debt £55.1bn

(2003) treasury select comittee suggest min repayments

Question 19

describe stewart (2008) anchoring

Answer 19

min repay of credit
mock bill £435.76
half recommend £5.42 min 
half w/o
those w/o pay 70% more of bill

strong correlation between min repay and amount repaid - min anchors amount paid

Question 20

define hindsight bias

Answer 20

outcome of event judged more likely than judgement before it occurs
especially if event has moral/emotional importance

Question 21

describe Fischoff (1977) hindsight

Answer 21

contestants correct memory of missrecalled answer to match correct answer

Question 22

how can you investigate hindsight bias

Answer 22

tell one group outcome
dont tell other group

“what would you estimate having not known the bias”

kindsight knowledge give higher estimate of prob & deny knowledge influence

Question 23

define Casper, benedict and Keller (1988) hindsight

Answer 23

search scenario -
told person guilty (find drugs), not guilty (no drugs) or not told outcome
knowledge of the outcome of the search influenced damage judgements
if guilty
- search more likely legal
-lower damage outcome
-distortion of information in the direction of incriminating the defendant

Question 24

define recognition heuristic

Answer 24

Gigerenzer and Goldstein
adaptive toolbox” of “fast and frugal” heuristics
ie more easily recognized item will be considered to have a higher value

Question 25

describe Gigerenzer and Goldstein (1999) recog

Answer 25

american and german students “which american city has largest pop”
62% americans correct
100% germans correct
- sandiego - recognised as has greater news coverage

Question 26

describe the recog heuristic model

Answer 26

mediator variable - reflects criterion otherwise inaccessible ie no times uni mentioned in papers infers endowment
correlates with:
-recognition - ie correlate between mediator and how much recognise
-criterion - ie actual endowment

recognition validity dependent on criterion
works only when recog correleated with criterion predicted

Question 27

describe Frosch, Bearman and McClay (2007) recog

Answer 27

pps rank wealth of name on sunday times rich list
recog correlate with wealth
“less is more” - performance better when know less about people

Question 28

are heuristics bad?

Answer 28

allow us to make quick decisions
rule of thumb important when dont have time to consider all aspects of a situation
avoids other costly and time consuming methods