Goldfarb Flashcards
how does the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) define the equity value of a firm?
(Goldfarb)
present value of all future dividends
what are two ways to apply the Dividend Discount Model? (DDM)
(Goldfarb)
- dividends are forecasted for all future periods, then discounted using a risk-adjusted rate
- dividends are forecasted over a finite horizon, terminal value is used to reflect the value of the remaining dividends beyond the horizon
what is free cash flow?
Goldfarb
- all cash that could be paid as a dividend
- net of any amounts that need to be reinvested in the firm for required operations and growth
what are the approaches to the Discounted Cash Flow model?
Goldfarb
- Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)
- Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)
what does the Free Cash Flow to the Firm approach focus on?
Goldfarb
free cash flow to the entire firm, prior to accounting for debt payments or taxes associated with debt payments
what does discounting the FCFF result in?
Goldfarb
total firm value
how is equity value of the firm found under the FCFF?
Goldfarb
by subtracting the market value of the debt from the total firm value
what does Free Cash Flow to Equity approach focus on?
Goldfarb
cash flows to equity holders only
how does the FCFE approach determine free cash flow to equity?
(Goldfarb)
subtract debt payments, net of associated tax consequences, from the free cash flow to the firm
what does discounting the resulting free cash flows to equity result in?
(Goldfarb)
equity value
what is an important distinction between FCFF and FCFE methods?
(Goldfarb)
- FCFF uses discount rate that reflects overall risk to both debtholders and equity holders
- FCFE uses a discount rate that reflects risk to equity holders only
what is a weighted average cost of capital?
Goldfarb
discount rate that reflects overall risk to both debtholders and equity holders
what does the Abnormal Earnings method do?
Goldfarb
separates the book value of the firm from the value of future earnings
what is book value?
Goldfarb
value of the firm’s equity assuming that the firm earns only the investors’ required return in all future periods
what are abnormal earnings?
Goldfarb
earnings excess of the investors’ required earnings
how does Abnormal Earnings (AE) calculate the equity value of the firm?
(Goldfarb)
by discounting abnormal earnings and adding them to the current book value
what is an important distinction between the AE and DDM/DCF methods?
(Goldfarb)
-DDM and DCF adjust the accounting-based net income measure into a cash flow measure
what does it mean for the DDM and DCF to adjust the accounting-based net income into a cash flow measure?
(Goldfarb)
removes distortions introduced by accounting rules that are designed to defer recognition of revenues and expenses
why is adjusting accounting-based net income measure into a cash flow measure not necessarily the best thing to do?
(Goldfarb)
unadjusted accounting values may provide a more accurate valuation over a finite horizon
what is another important distinction between the AE and DDM/DCF methods?
(Goldfarb)
- AE focuses on the source of value creation: firm’s ability to earn a return on equity in excess of investors’ required return
- DCF and DDM focus on effect of value creation: firm’s ability to pay cash flows to its owner
how does relative valuation using multiples determine equity value?
(Goldfarb)
uses a multiple applied to a selected financial measure to determine equity value
what does a “multiple” in relative valuation using multiples represent?
(Goldfarb)
all assumptions needed for the other methods (AE, DCF, DDM, etc.), including revenues, expenses, growth rates, etc.
how can the multiple (in relative valuation using multiples) serve as a reasonability check?
(Goldfarb)
indicates whether the assumptions driving the DDM, DCF or AE approaches make sense and whether they differ from comparable firms
how does the option pricing theory view equity value of a firm?
(Goldfarb)
- as a call option on the assets of the firm, with a strike price equal to the undiscounted value of the liabilities
- conceptually: equity owners have sold the assets of the firm to debtholders but they have the right to buy them back by repaying the face value of the debt
why is the option pricing theory difficult to implement?
Goldfarb
- practical limitations associated with determining which inputs to model
- difficult to accurately reflect firms’ capital structures (e.g.: multiple classes of debt)
what are examples of “real options” that option pricing theory is useful for?
(Goldfarb)
- options to expand current operations
- options to make follow-on investments
- options to abandon projects
what is a value of a share of stock?
Goldfarb
discounted present value of the expected future dividends
when do we incorporate a terminal value term?
Goldfarb
when dividends are projected over a finite horizon and then assumed to grow at a constant rate beyond that horizon
what does the “multiple” applied to the current dividend amount as of the terminal date represent?
(Goldfarb)
net effect of assumptions:
- dividends will grow at constant rate forever
- growth rate is g
- discount rate is k
what are three assumptions needed to implement the DDM?
Goldfarb
- expected dividends during forecast horizon
- dividend growth rates beyond forecast horizon
- appropriate risk-adjusted discount rate
what are drawbacks of estimating expected dividends during the forecast horizon?
(Goldfarb)
- extremely complex to forecast future dividends
- involves forecasts of revenues, expenses, investment needs, cash flows, etc.
what is a simple approach to estimate dividend growth rates beyond the forecast horizon?
(Goldfarb)
use growth rates during the forecast horizon to extrapolate the future growth rates
what is another approach to base dividend growth rates on?
Goldfarb
base on:
- dividend payout ratio
- return on equity
what is the dividend payout ratio?
Goldfarb
portion of earnings paid as dividends
what is return on equity (ROE)?
Goldfarb
-profit per dollar of reinvested earnings
what is the plowback ratio?
Goldfarb
portion of earnings retained and reinvested
1 - div. payout ratio
why doesn’t a high growth rate necessarily mean that firm value will increase?
(Goldfarb)
- only the case if everything is held constant
- in reality, growth rates, div. payout ratios, and risk-adjusted rate are not independent
what are two examples of dependence between dividends and growth rates?
(Goldfarb)
- high growth rates and high dividends are not sustainable (at the same time) -> high growth rates will likely be offset by lower dividends
- firms with high growth rates tend to be riskier -> drives up the risk-adjusted rate and drives down the present value of dividend amounts
what are two ways to reflect the risk in the value being calculated, when valuing risk cash flows?
(Goldfarb)
- use a risk-adjusted rate higher than the risk-free rate -> lowers value of cash flows
- adjust cash flows for risk directly, then discount using risk-free rate
what is does private valuation assume?
Goldfarb
- individual investors have their own views of “risk”
- potential investments are assessed relative to investors’ existing portfolios -> same investment has different value to different investors
what does equilibrium market valuation assume?
Goldfarb
- all investors hold the same portfolio and assess “risk” in identical fashions
- investments will have the same value for all investors
in the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), how is risk defined?
(Goldfarb)
in terms of the investment’s beta -> measure of systematic risk that cannot be diversified away
what are two methods for determining beta?
Goldfarb
- firm beta
- industry beta
what is a firm beta?
Goldfarb
linear regression of the company’s returns against the market returns using historical stock price data
what is an industry beta?
Goldfarb
uses an industrywide mean or median value
what factors might an industry beta be adjusted to reflect?
Goldfarb
- mix of business
- financial leverage
how might an industry beta be adjusted to reflect mix of business?
(Goldfarb)
-only use firms with comparable mixes of business
what is a drawback to adjusting an industry beta to reflect mix of business?
(Goldfarb)
-drops number of firms significantly -> reduces reliability of result
what is financial leverage and what is its impact on firm risk?
(Goldfarb)
using debt to raise capital -> increases risk to equity holders
how can the beta be adjusted due to different levels of financial leverage?
(Goldfarb)
-beta can be defined to reflect solely business risk, and NOT effect of debt leverage -> “all-equity beta”
what might it be best not to adjust the beta for financial leverage?
(Goldfarb)
- policyholder liabilities also result in leverage effects (not fully accounted for when adjusting solely for debt leverage)
- assume TOTAL leverage of all firms in industry are similar
what should the risk-free rate be based on?
Goldfarb
current yields on risk-free securities
what are three options of risk-free securities to base the risk-free rate on?
(Goldfarb)
- 90-day T-Bills
- Maturity Matched T-Notes
- T-Bonds
what are 90-Day T-Bills free of?
Goldfarb
both credit and reinvestment risk