geographical debates paper Flashcards
timescale available for marine sediments
300,000 to 66 million years ago
marine sediments: different oxygen isotopes meaning
low O18 (high O16)= colder
high O18= warmer
timescale available for ice cores
100s to 1000s of millions of years
Antarctica ones go back 800,000 years
timescale available for fossils
millions of years
timescale available for dendrochronology
100s to 1000s of years
(tree’s lifespan)
timescale available for lake sediments
intervals of decades to centuries
millions of years
bug size change seen recently (use to make inferences from lake sediments)
shrink as climate warms
have decreased 20% in last 45 years
when did continents break up from supercontinent Pangea
250 million years ago
when did S America and N America join at Isthmus of Panama
5 million years ago
mount pinatubo eruption stats
1991
20 million tonnes SO2 into atmosphere
earths climate cooled 1.3C over 3 years
mount laki eruption facts
1783
sig effects on weather patterns for 2-4 years eg harsh winters, rainy summers so Europe crops didn’t ripen, Asian monsoon cycle disrupted so food poverty and famine
eccentricity timescale
100,000 year cycle
eccentricity solar radiation differences
30% difference between perihelion and aphelion
obliquity timescale
41,000 year cycle
obliquity angle variation and what is it now
varies between 22 degrees and 24.5 degrees
now 23.4
at 22, summers cooler and winters warmer so increased snow and ice cover
precession timescale
22,000 year cycle
sunspots and faculae time changes
abundance varies in an 11 year cycle
how much does solar irradiance change between min and max due to sunspots and faculae
0.1%
temp of earth if greenhouse effect didn’t exist
-17C instead of 15C
100 million years ago:
global temp
co2 levels
global sea level
6-8C higher than today
coincided with CO2 levels 5x higher than today
s.l. 170m higher than today
what happened 55 million years ago and 35 million years ago
spike in global temps: peaked at 23`c
then rapid transition to colder conditions (with glaciation of Antarctica) which have continued into present day
what time period does quaternary period span
last 2.6 million years
length of a glacial and an interglacial
glacial 100,000 years
interglacial 10-15000 years
most recent glacial name and stats§
Devonian
reached max 20,000 years ago with 1/3 of continental surface covered by snow and ice
when did Holocene (current interglacial) start
at end of last glacial 11700 years ago
holocene period sea level rise
over 100m
has warming through holocene been constant?
no: several relatively short-lived period of warming and cooling eg 1100-1300 medieval warm period and 1550-1850 little ice age
how many of warmest years since 1880
10/10 of warmest years since 1880 have been since 2000
average surface temp increase since 1900
1.1C
when were 5 warmest years on record
all since 2015
montana glacier national park stats
> 110 of 150 glaciers have disappeared
warming at 2 to 3 times speed of global average Tc rise
alps valley glaciers will shrink by how much by 2100
80-96%
atrabanca glacier rate of retreat
8m/year 1970-1950
22m/year 1950-2005
fraction of worlds water in ice sheets
3/4
ice sheet projected loss
greenland 1.7 million km2
antarctica 14 million km2
polar ice loss has contributed 11mm to global sl rise since 1992 and contributes 1mm annually
sea level rise since 1900 and now what
1-2.5mm per year
now 3mm per year
sea level rise if all glaciers and ice sheets melt
70 metres
ice loss from Greenland ice sheet
increased 7 fold from 34bn tons per year 1992-2001 to 247bn tons pear year 2012-16
how much of sea level rise does thermal expansion account for
over 1/2
for every 1C rise in temp caused by increased CO2 conc, how much does warming rate by WV increase
it doubles
atmospheric water vapour conc figures
1% conc in 1976
17% conc in 2016
arctic sea ice decrease figures
1979-2000: 50% decrease between May and August
2007: 67% decrease
500,000 km2 difference between levels at start of may and 2.5m km2 difference between levels at end of august between 1979 and 2007
fraction of GHG emissions from land use change and emission of C from deforestation, drained wetlands and cultivated soils
1/3
% of land surface used for agriculture
40%
% of worlds forests lost since 1700
25%
USA carbon footprint per capita
50 tons CO2 per year
5 times greater than global average
population growth globally
1bn in 1800
8bn now
% of worlds energy production from burning FFs
contributes how much of worlds atoms CO2 emissions since 1750
87%
3/4
plane vs high speed train carbon footprint
planes 29x greater
between 1960 and 2011: CO2 emissions of Asia vs Europe
ASIA: 17% to 54%
EUROPE: 44% to 17%
UK case study as AC w contribution to GHG emissions
1st country to industrialise early C19 powered by coal so sig CO2 emissions increased 16 fold in course of century
emissions peaked 1971: since then, annual emissions dropped 1/3 due to shift to natural gas
since 1990, 2ary industry decreased, outsourcing instead (when emissions linked to imported goods included UKs national C footprint rises by 20%)
UK’s C emissions= 10th highest globally but falling over past 20 years (23% lower than 1990 to comfortably meet Kyoto)
3ary sector dominates economy: 80% of GDP and aerospace is 2nd largest national one
China case study EDC
until 1970s, economy overwhelmingly rural
1978 U-turn policy so focus on 2ary
GDP/capita rose from $300 in 1980 to $12800 in 2012
2013: China produced 29% of the total C from all human sources (20% for good shipped to Europe and USA)
didn’t sign Kyoto: emissions grew 2.5x 2000-2014
2006 overtook Usa as worlds largest emitter
2014 consumed as much coal as rest of world together
2018 emissions per head surpassed EU: China 7.2t, EU 6.8t, world 5t
when was greenhouse effect discovered
1824
from what time on did global warming debate take off
1960s
IPCC establishment date?
1988
kyoto protocol date
1997
progression of climate change debate
- is it real?
- what is causing it?
- what actions to take?
what RCP are we following currently
RCP8.5
RCP8.5 impact
assumes CO2 emissions will rise beyond 2100
australia africa s america 4-5C rise by 2080s
Arctic Ocean ice free in September by 2080s
RCP6.0 impact
assumes CO2 emissions will continue to rise until 2100
arctic >5C rise over next 100 years
antarctica >3C rise over next 100 years
sahara 4C rise
RCP4.5 impact
assumes CO2 emissions will rise until 2070
arctic 3-4C rise over next 100 years compared to 1985 average (2-3C everywhere else)
arctic sea ice shining: 60% reduced coverage in Sept
RCP2.6 impact
assumes CO2 emissions at peak now (2010-2020) and negative after 2070
arctic warm by 2C over next 100 years compared to 1985 average (elsewhere confined to 1-1.5C, and a 0.5C drop over next 150 years)
precipitation rise by 10% in mid latitudes by 2100
predicted impact on global temps by 2100
0.5F to 8.6F increase (at least 2.7F unless RCP2.6; even under this, expected to warm at least twice as much in next 100 years as it has in last 100 years)
spatial variation but everywhere impacted more uniformly in 150 years RCP8.5
VARIES BY 4.5C BETWEEN RCP2.6 AND RCP8.5
sea level rise since 1870
7.5 inches
projected sea level rise by 2100
1 to 4 feet
changes in ice sheets account for 1.2-8 inches of this
(3C is beyond tipping point for Greenland ice sheet= if all melts, 7m sl rise globally)
vertebrates disappearing how much faster than they should be (impact on ecosystems)
114 times
outbreak of spruce bark beetles on Kenai Peninsula caused how much tree mortality
2.3m acres
impacts of CC on health
2030-2050, CC expected to cause 250,000 additional deaths per year
Addis Ababa 2300m above sea level. elevation needed to protect people from malaria has risen 100m over 20 years so AA at risk by 2100
sea defences becoming redundant bc frequency of extreme weather
planned for 1 in 100 year events (chance of storm surge hitting NYC); if frequency increases to 1 in 20 years redundant and overtopped
greece and California wildfires forests loss
Greece lost over 52k acres vegetation 2009
2008 worst Cali wildfires on record (over 1.3m acres)
how many people live in water stress
200 million
thermohaline circulation accounts for what % of worlds heat transfer
20%
rate of temp increase in arctic compared to equator
12 faster
albedo % reflected/absorbed
ice reflects 90% of radiation
ocean absorbs 90%
% drop in ice caps/sea ice 1960-2000 in arctic
40%
european 2003 heatwave stats
38.5C Kent
temps 20-30% above average
30k died, 15k France, 2k UK (1/3 due to air pollution in UK)
£13bn losses to European agriculture
deadliest nat disaster in Europe last 50 years
650,000ha forest damaged by forest fires
alps glaciers shrunk in depth by 3m (5x 1990 levels, 2x 2002)
top 10 hottest UK years since 1880 have been since 2002
somerset floods stats
100 million m3 floodwater
600 homes flooded, 16 farms evacuated
81 roads shut, railing shut off
£150 million cost to Somerset economy (more bc knock on to other regions)
2011-20= 9% wetter than 1961-1990
% of UK Co2 from residential sources
17%
using 0.3% of uninhabited Middle East and N Africa for solar power would provide how much energy
enough for M East, N Africa and Europe
cost per CCS plant
$700 million
Boundary Dam removes how much of generated CO2
90%
managed realignment at porlock bay
500m formed salt marsh
cost of mine head coastal defences
£13m