geographical debates paper Flashcards
timescale available for marine sediments
300,000 to 66 million years ago
marine sediments: different oxygen isotopes meaning
low O18 (high O16)= colder
high O18= warmer
timescale available for ice cores
100s to 1000s of millions of years
Antarctica ones go back 800,000 years
timescale available for fossils
millions of years
timescale available for dendrochronology
100s to 1000s of years
(tree’s lifespan)
timescale available for lake sediments
intervals of decades to centuries
millions of years
bug size change seen recently (use to make inferences from lake sediments)
shrink as climate warms
have decreased 20% in last 45 years
when did continents break up from supercontinent Pangea
250 million years ago
when did S America and N America join at Isthmus of Panama
5 million years ago
mount pinatubo eruption stats
1991
20 million tonnes SO2 into atmosphere
earths climate cooled 1.3C over 3 years
mount laki eruption facts
1783
sig effects on weather patterns for 2-4 years eg harsh winters, rainy summers so Europe crops didn’t ripen, Asian monsoon cycle disrupted so food poverty and famine
eccentricity timescale
100,000 year cycle
eccentricity solar radiation differences
30% difference between perihelion and aphelion
obliquity timescale
41,000 year cycle
obliquity angle variation and what is it now
varies between 22 degrees and 24.5 degrees
now 23.4
at 22, summers cooler and winters warmer so increased snow and ice cover
precession timescale
22,000 year cycle
sunspots and faculae time changes
abundance varies in an 11 year cycle
how much does solar irradiance change between min and max due to sunspots and faculae
0.1%
temp of earth if greenhouse effect didn’t exist
-17C instead of 15C
100 million years ago:
global temp
co2 levels
global sea level
6-8C higher than today
coincided with CO2 levels 5x higher than today
s.l. 170m higher than today
what happened 55 million years ago and 35 million years ago
spike in global temps: peaked at 23`c
then rapid transition to colder conditions (with glaciation of Antarctica) which have continued into present day
what time period does quaternary period span
last 2.6 million years
length of a glacial and an interglacial
glacial 100,000 years
interglacial 10-15000 years
most recent glacial name and stats§
Devonian
reached max 20,000 years ago with 1/3 of continental surface covered by snow and ice
when did Holocene (current interglacial) start
at end of last glacial 11700 years ago
holocene period sea level rise
over 100m
has warming through holocene been constant?
no: several relatively short-lived period of warming and cooling eg 1100-1300 medieval warm period and 1550-1850 little ice age
how many of warmest years since 1880
10/10 of warmest years since 1880 have been since 2000
average surface temp increase since 1900
1.1C
when were 5 warmest years on record
all since 2015
montana glacier national park stats
> 110 of 150 glaciers have disappeared
warming at 2 to 3 times speed of global average Tc rise
alps valley glaciers will shrink by how much by 2100
80-96%
atrabanca glacier rate of retreat
8m/year 1970-1950
22m/year 1950-2005
fraction of worlds water in ice sheets
3/4
ice sheet projected loss
greenland 1.7 million km2
antarctica 14 million km2
polar ice loss has contributed 11mm to global sl rise since 1992 and contributes 1mm annually
sea level rise since 1900 and now what
1-2.5mm per year
now 3mm per year
sea level rise if all glaciers and ice sheets melt
70 metres
ice loss from Greenland ice sheet
increased 7 fold from 34bn tons per year 1992-2001 to 247bn tons pear year 2012-16
how much of sea level rise does thermal expansion account for
over 1/2
for every 1C rise in temp caused by increased CO2 conc, how much does warming rate by WV increase
it doubles
atmospheric water vapour conc figures
1% conc in 1976
17% conc in 2016
arctic sea ice decrease figures
1979-2000: 50% decrease between May and August
2007: 67% decrease
500,000 km2 difference between levels at start of may and 2.5m km2 difference between levels at end of august between 1979 and 2007
fraction of GHG emissions from land use change and emission of C from deforestation, drained wetlands and cultivated soils
1/3
% of land surface used for agriculture
40%
% of worlds forests lost since 1700
25%
USA carbon footprint per capita
50 tons CO2 per year
5 times greater than global average
population growth globally
1bn in 1800
8bn now
% of worlds energy production from burning FFs
contributes how much of worlds atoms CO2 emissions since 1750
87%
3/4
plane vs high speed train carbon footprint
planes 29x greater
between 1960 and 2011: CO2 emissions of Asia vs Europe
ASIA: 17% to 54%
EUROPE: 44% to 17%
UK case study as AC w contribution to GHG emissions
1st country to industrialise early C19 powered by coal so sig CO2 emissions increased 16 fold in course of century
emissions peaked 1971: since then, annual emissions dropped 1/3 due to shift to natural gas
since 1990, 2ary industry decreased, outsourcing instead (when emissions linked to imported goods included UKs national C footprint rises by 20%)
UK’s C emissions= 10th highest globally but falling over past 20 years (23% lower than 1990 to comfortably meet Kyoto)
3ary sector dominates economy: 80% of GDP and aerospace is 2nd largest national one
China case study EDC
until 1970s, economy overwhelmingly rural
1978 U-turn policy so focus on 2ary
GDP/capita rose from $300 in 1980 to $12800 in 2012
2013: China produced 29% of the total C from all human sources (20% for good shipped to Europe and USA)
didn’t sign Kyoto: emissions grew 2.5x 2000-2014
2006 overtook Usa as worlds largest emitter
2014 consumed as much coal as rest of world together
2018 emissions per head surpassed EU: China 7.2t, EU 6.8t, world 5t
when was greenhouse effect discovered
1824
from what time on did global warming debate take off
1960s
IPCC establishment date?
1988
kyoto protocol date
1997
progression of climate change debate
- is it real?
- what is causing it?
- what actions to take?
what RCP are we following currently
RCP8.5
RCP8.5 impact
assumes CO2 emissions will rise beyond 2100
australia africa s america 4-5C rise by 2080s
Arctic Ocean ice free in September by 2080s
RCP6.0 impact
assumes CO2 emissions will continue to rise until 2100
arctic >5C rise over next 100 years
antarctica >3C rise over next 100 years
sahara 4C rise
RCP4.5 impact
assumes CO2 emissions will rise until 2070
arctic 3-4C rise over next 100 years compared to 1985 average (2-3C everywhere else)
arctic sea ice shining: 60% reduced coverage in Sept
RCP2.6 impact
assumes CO2 emissions at peak now (2010-2020) and negative after 2070
arctic warm by 2C over next 100 years compared to 1985 average (elsewhere confined to 1-1.5C, and a 0.5C drop over next 150 years)
precipitation rise by 10% in mid latitudes by 2100
predicted impact on global temps by 2100
0.5F to 8.6F increase (at least 2.7F unless RCP2.6; even under this, expected to warm at least twice as much in next 100 years as it has in last 100 years)
spatial variation but everywhere impacted more uniformly in 150 years RCP8.5
VARIES BY 4.5C BETWEEN RCP2.6 AND RCP8.5
sea level rise since 1870
7.5 inches
projected sea level rise by 2100
1 to 4 feet
changes in ice sheets account for 1.2-8 inches of this
(3C is beyond tipping point for Greenland ice sheet= if all melts, 7m sl rise globally)
vertebrates disappearing how much faster than they should be (impact on ecosystems)
114 times
outbreak of spruce bark beetles on Kenai Peninsula caused how much tree mortality
2.3m acres
impacts of CC on health
2030-2050, CC expected to cause 250,000 additional deaths per year
Addis Ababa 2300m above sea level. elevation needed to protect people from malaria has risen 100m over 20 years so AA at risk by 2100
sea defences becoming redundant bc frequency of extreme weather
planned for 1 in 100 year events (chance of storm surge hitting NYC); if frequency increases to 1 in 20 years redundant and overtopped
greece and California wildfires forests loss
Greece lost over 52k acres vegetation 2009
2008 worst Cali wildfires on record (over 1.3m acres)
how many people live in water stress
200 million
thermohaline circulation accounts for what % of worlds heat transfer
20%
rate of temp increase in arctic compared to equator
12 faster
albedo % reflected/absorbed
ice reflects 90% of radiation
ocean absorbs 90%
% drop in ice caps/sea ice 1960-2000 in arctic
40%
european 2003 heatwave stats
38.5C Kent
temps 20-30% above average
30k died, 15k France, 2k UK (1/3 due to air pollution in UK)
£13bn losses to European agriculture
deadliest nat disaster in Europe last 50 years
650,000ha forest damaged by forest fires
alps glaciers shrunk in depth by 3m (5x 1990 levels, 2x 2002)
top 10 hottest UK years since 1880 have been since 2002
somerset floods stats
100 million m3 floodwater
600 homes flooded, 16 farms evacuated
81 roads shut, railing shut off
£150 million cost to Somerset economy (more bc knock on to other regions)
2011-20= 9% wetter than 1961-1990
% of UK Co2 from residential sources
17%
using 0.3% of uninhabited Middle East and N Africa for solar power would provide how much energy
enough for M East, N Africa and Europe
cost per CCS plant
$700 million
Boundary Dam removes how much of generated CO2
90%
managed realignment at porlock bay
500m formed salt marsh
cost of mine head coastal defences
£13m
urban areas warm how much quicker than rural
megacities vs smaller cities
29%
0.28C
Bangladesh vs UK CO2 emissions per capita per year
B 0.21 tonnes
UK 9.26 tonnes
global 4.66 tonnes
bangladesh socioeconomic threat stats
20 million live just above water line
past 25 years: 60% of all deaths worldwide from cyclones occurred here
by 2100, 600k hectares agricultural land too highly Salinised for cultivation
bangladesh land lost by 2100
1/6 of country lost by 2100 bc 10% within 1m of sea level
bangladesh challenges to adaptation stats
60m in poverty low GDP/capita $2300, 40% work in 1ary so climate dependent
over 600 drainage channels needed to protect Dhaka
world bank $2bn flood embankment project
UK mitigation strategies and challenges to these stats
CC Act 2008: *80% fall in CO2 by 2050 compared to 1990
nimbyism stops 1/3 wind farms
previously received £4bn from EU bank for renewable energy
nuclear requires £24bn
UK adaptation strategies and challenges to these stats
£20bn for outer thames tidal barrage is v costly but 120,000 homes built past barrage in past 10 years
Kyoto was when
1997-2012 (2nd voluntary 2013-20)
Kyoto target
5% reduction in C emissions relative to 1990 by 2012
Paris temp target
1.5C target (rather than 2C due to awareness of 2C rise impacts)
fraction of diseases in LIDCs which are infectious
1/2
fraction of diseases in ACs which are NCDs
9/10
UNFCCC stats
41 countries in 1992
now 198 countries
kyoto protocol stats
1997 192 countries
97-2012 reduce emissions by 5%
2012-2020 reduce 13% (not all countries signed this)
EU aim to be carbon neutral
by 2050
how much did EUETS cap and trade system reduce emissions by
35%
when was big oil scandal
describe
2021
6 big oil CEOs accused of lying to US congress about discrediting climate science
UK climate change bills
2008 Climate Change Act
2019 net zero for 2050
india carbon consumption per capita
1.7 tonnes
global average 4.7t
india carbon neutral target
2070
false bias media stats
97% of scientists for CC
3% against
bangladesh vs uk population density
uk 279 people per sqkm
bangladesh 1330 people per sqkm
bangladesh vs uk GDP/capita
uk $46000
bangladesh $2700
EUETS figures
11000 power stations
covers over 50% of emitters
EUETS price of extra carbon over credits
£100/ton of CO2 in excess
EU climate directive emission targets
20% decrease by 2020 achieved in 2011 (not ambitious enough)
Sweden emissions reductions
1990-2006 9% reduction (exceeded Kyoto)
told could increase by 4%, decreased further by 4%
Sweden carbon tax
1991
extra 20p per litre of fuel
carbon emissions would be 20% higher without
Sweden GHG emission aims
aiming to cut by 59% by 2030 compared to 2005
net zero carbon economy bay 2045
Sweden vs uk GDP per capita
Sweden $65000 (16th)
UK $55000 (27th)s
Sweden vs uk population and pop density
Sweden 10.5m (26 per sqkm)
UK 67m (279 per sqkm)
Sweden vs uk tax rates
Sweden 44%
uk 35%
California water reduction
snowpack (1/3 of water supply) has decreased by 1/4 due to GW
california emissions bills
aim to decrease by 30% by 2020 succeeded
by 2030: 50% energy from renewables, emissions 40% lower than 1990 levels
California cap and trade
2nd biggest globally
california affluence
5th gdp if ranked independently as a country
BP carbon offsetting stats
claimed pig farm captured equivalent of 750,000 cars annually
actually 1/3 of this: BP lying, shows offsetting is hard to manage and quantify accurately §
ebola outbreak epidemic example
W Africa
killed 10,500
black death pandemic example
mid 14th century
killed 1 in 4 in europe
hagerstrand model stages
Primary
Expansion
Condensation
Saturation
H1N1 as example of hierarchial diffusion
2009 H1N1 virus became a pandemic via international flight routes and airports
61m cases 12500 deaths in USA
example of contagious diffusion
ebola epidemic W Africa 2014-15
example of relocation diffusion
2010 Haiti cholera epidemic killed 7000
haiti poverty stats
prior to EQ, 86% of Port au Prince inhabitants lived in slums
60% of population survive on less than $2.5 daily
17% of Haitians had access to toilets prior to EQ
haiti earthquake stats
jan 2010 earthquake left 1.3m homeless and vulnerable
moved into makeshift camps (unsanitary, overcrowding) so increased cholera spread
haiti hurricanes
Hurricane Tomas 5 Nov 2010
Hurricane Sandy Dec 2012
stats of impacts of cholera in haiti on people
by end of Oct 2010, cholera had spread across 5 regions of Haiti with over 400 being treated
matter of national security Nov 2010
end of Nov >515,000 cases reported w nearly 7000 deaths
2014: 2300 hospitalised and 40 deaths per week
Hurricane Sandy cases tripled overnight
TOTALS: 685000 cases 8300 deaths
stats on success of haiti management strategies
infection rates plummeted in 2011
mortality among cholera victims dropped from 10% in Oct 2010 to 1% from Jan 2011 onwards
life expectancy in different stages of ETM
1: 30y/o
2: 50y/o
3: 60-70y/o
4: 70s-80s
NCD increases globally vs in africa
NCD deaths will increase by 17% over next 10 years, 27% in africa
over nutrition brazil stats
1974: 2 cases of underweight adults for every obese one
1997: ratio reversed
delhi
population
deaths due to air pollution
air pollution levels
28.5 million
30,000 deaths annually attributed to air pollution
mean level= over double above WHOs guidelines of ‘safe air’
stats of impacts of air pollution in delhi
respiratory symptoms and diseases are 1.7 times higher in delhi than rural areas
lung function 40% reduced (21% lower in rural)
hypertension 40%
lung cancer rates increased from 14 to 16 per 100,000 in men 2008-10
delhi stats on dealing with air pollution levels
more public transport eg 14 Indian cities built rapid transit metro systems
internal agreements eg 2012: 37 EU countries agreed to cut GHG by 18% of 1990 levels by 2020
% of Ethiopia population living in areas at risk of malaria
68%
stats of environmental causes of malaria in ethiopia
temp drops 1C per 100m climbed so plasmodium only exists over 2400m (needs 21-28C)
sig outbreaks every 5-8 years in line with El Niño events
stats on key impacts of malaria in ethiopia
2005: 70,000 deaths , 2017: 2700 deaths
malaria takes 40% of national health expenditures and accounts for 12% of health clinic visits
stats on direct strategies used by gov against malaria in ehtiopia
national malaria strategy plan (2012-26) aims for nationwide eradication by 2030
5 year plan agreed in 2011
success: death rates dropped 50% between 2000 and 2010
stats on indirect strategies used by gov against malaria in ehtiopia
global fund 220 million mosquito nets and treated 165 million cases
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation working to eradicate for past 20 years, prevented 1.7b cases, saved 10.6 m lives
comparison eradication of malaria in ethiopia and Sri Lanka STATS
Sri Lanka gdp 5 times higher than ethiopia
Sri Lanka population 20 million, ethiopia 100 million
uk cancer rates change since 1970s
23% rise in men
43% rise in women
fraction of annual cancer rates smoking related in UK
1/5
stats of cancer impacts in UK
£15bn cost to UK economy per year
monthly cost to individuals £570
14.2% more women in “most affluent” group survive bladder cancer compared with their “most deprived” counterparts
life expectancy between Glasgow and knightsbridge is 26 year difference
cancer rates in poorest areas 3x higher than in most affluent
cancer rates in 50 year olds vs 80 year olds
50: 1 in 20
80: 1 in 3
stats on direct and indirect strategies on cancer UK
cancer cases in UK have 50% survival rate due to direct
38% of cases avoidable/delayed by indirect
extended bowel cancer screening to 70-75 year olds led to >15000 cancer detections since 2006
BRC in Haiti stats
2010-12
clean drinking water to 300,000 in camps in Port au Prince
1300 latrined for 250000 people
81 CTCs 140 CTUs
hygiene initiatives reached 79000
treated 18,700 in La Piste camp and Port a Piment camp in SW Haiti
success of BRC in Haiti
2011: 35,000 new cases a month
2014: fell to 2200
2019: cholera free
WHO stats:
TB
COVAX
nepal eq
zika
aims to eradicate by 2050
2bn doses to 190 poorer nations
2015 EQ, mobile medical units and supported foreign medical teams
increased awareness of epidemics eg Zika 2016
WAN consists of how many flight connections and airports
role in pandemics
consists over >3400 commercial airports connected by 50,000 flight routes that carry 12.3m passengers daily
SARS 2002-3, influenza 2009-10
UK Covid 19 response stats
march 2020 lockdown
first country to authorise and deploy Pfizer and AstraZeneca
first major European economy to vax 50% of pop
160000 deaths bc ageing unhealthy pop
australia covid response stats
death rates significantly lower the US and the UK : cases never over 1000 for a pop of 25.4m
opened local economies 2 months after lockdown imposed
Brazil covid response stats
2nd highest death toll worldwide >700,000
invested $500m for purchasing emergency health items
caffeine use and growing conditions
from tea/coffee/coca
tropical/sub-tropical forests, 20-27C, high precipitation, well drained soil w high organic content
CNS, heart and muscles stimulant
migraine, epidural, anaesthesia
quinine growing conditions and use
from dried bark of cinchonas evergreen tree
>20C, humid, high precipitation >2000mm, no frost, well drained soil w high organic content
kills malarial parasite in RBC
artemisinin growing conditions and use
from artemisia annual plant leaves
temperate climate 13-29C, frost tolerant, 600-650mm precipitation,well drained soil, neutral pH
anti-malarial drugs
% of terrestrial plants species in TRF
70
% of TRF plants screened for medicinal use
1%
how many drugs lost every 2 years due to deforestation
CBD estimates 1
how many rely on traditional medicines
80% of world pop (5bn)
number of plants threatened by over harvesting for traditional medicines
> 4000 medicinal plants threatened
14 endangered e.g. anti-cancer drug taxol from yew tree species
example of overcoming biopiracy
Samoa 1980s
prostialin treated HIV
from bark of mamala tree
US National Cancer Institute and Swedish International Dev Authority provide funds for econ dev and forest protection in Samoa
Eli Lilley annual profit from rosy periwinkle alkaloids
$65m
medicinal importance of rosy periwinkle
discovered in 1960s
contains 70 alkaloids: 2 important
vinblastine increases survival of childhood leukaemia from 10% to 95%
vincristine used to treat Hodgkinsons disease
traditional Madagascan healers used it to treat diabetes
fraction of worlds medicines form amazon
1/4
GSK annual spending on R&D
£3 billion
13,000 employed
GSK patents
over 14,000
drugs earned them £23b in 2013
examples of beneficial GSK work
£15m to Save the Children to decrease child ad mother mortality rate in DRC
donate 600m albendazote to UN annually and 200m COVID vaccines for COVAX
decrease drug prices by 25% for worlds 50 poorest nations
reinveste 20% of profits in developing world
ghana guinea worm cases before and after
had 2nd highest prevalence
last case in 2010
2015 free from guinea worm
polio before and after number of cases
1952 killed/paralysed 600,000 annually
1988 GPEI launched $17bn w/ WHO, UNICEF
2011 endemic to Pakistan Afghanistan NIgeria
healthcare workers killed in polio vaccine distribution
80
Mauritius malaria first eradication campaign
gov launched 1948
mortality rates dropped from 6/1000 in 12943 to 0.6/1000 in 1951
1973 eradicated
Mauritius malaria second eradication campaign
1975 reintroduction
screen 175,000 airport passengers per year
only 1 imported case since 1997
cost of smallpox eradication
$300m
smallpox eradication timeline
vaccine discovered 1796
WHO eradication programme 1958 (already gone in some places)
1967 intensified
1980 eradicated
when did isthmus of Panama close
2.7 million years ago
when was continental drift
250 million years ago
sea level rise by 2050 projected
37cm
UK climate change act 2008
drop CO2 emissions by 34% by 2020
drop 80% by 2050
compared to 1990 levels
UK fuel shift coal
coal decreased by 97% since 2013
power provided from coal responsible for only 1% of elec gen in 2023 vs 40% in 2013 due to geopolitical reasons
UK fuel shift oil natural gas coal
oil still 34.4% of energy source
nat gas 37.4%
coal 3.7%
in 2021
UK expense on nuclear energy
£24 billion
how many wind farms does nimbyism stop in UK
1/3
Iceland gets what % of energy from geothermal and HEP
99%
price per CCS plant
£700 million
boundary dam CCS plant figure
removes 90% of the CO2 it generates
price of outer thames tidal barrage
needed?
£20 billion
may be needed bc 120,000 homes built past barrage in past 10 years
Maldives highest point above land and altitude of rest of country
2m above sea level
80% is 1m or less above sea level
Maldives % of islands experiencing swallowing of coastal regions by erosion
90%
when will Maldives be completely submerged
by 2085
rate of global sea level rise
3.3mm annually
% of wave energy absorbed by coral reefs
97%
IPCC prediction of impact on corals is 2050 temp rises 1.5C
70 to 90 % may be lost
Maldives % of GDP from tourism
30%
% of Tuvalu’s capital submerged during high tides of storms
40%
climate change temp rise since 1880
1.1C
example of tropical storm and impacts
hurricane Maria
hit Caribbean in 2017
$9.2b in damage costs in Dominica and Puerto Rico
Bangladesh displacement in 2022 climate change sea level rise
7.1 millio
elevation for malaria protection
risen 100m over 20 years
global urban population facing water scarcity
expected to double from 930 million in 2016 to 1.7-2.4b by 2050
% of Maldivian national budget spent on adapting to climate chnage
50%
India dengue fever 2013 post rainy season
38179 cases
risk of dying in cancer in Westminster vs manchester
1 in 10
1 in 6
temp in 2100 compared to pre industrial levels
2.4C higher
sea level rise 2100 compared to 1960 levels
1m
NCDs account for what % of deaths globally
60%
covid number of deaths and cases
7m deaths
750m cases
