Extreme events and Terrestrial Ecosystems Flashcards
In 2019 Australia experienced what temperature statistics
41 extremely warm days (3x highest number in any years)
33 days were national daily average max >39C
Particuarly across SE Australia
The intensity of short duration extreme rainfall events has
Increased by 10%
Flash flooding
Projected trends for tropical cyclone are less certain but we expect
Fewer tropical cyclones
Greater proportion projected to be high intensity
Large variations year-to-year
Harder to quantify, challenge in estimating
What are two risks to decreasing rainfall and increasing temperature
Number of dangerous fire weather days increasing
Longer fire season
Warmer atmosphere can hold
more water vapour at 7% per degree of warming
Intense rainfall events
What is a small incremental increase in temperature that can produce major changes
0.5C
Observed changes in temperature include 4 categories
Annual coldest temperature
Land mean temperature
Annual hottest temperature
Global mean temperature
Ranked highest to lowest changes
Changes in the intensity of extremes relative to present day (1.5C) conditions would be
Double at 2C
Quandruple at 3C
Heavy precipiation has likely increased on the continental scale over
North America
Europe
Asia
Biggest increases are in ____ temperature
Minimum
Increase in global warming is largely in the
Poles
Increase in agricultural and ecological droughts due to
Increase in evapotranspiration (MC)
More regions will be affected by agricultural and ecological droughts with increasing
Global warming (HC)
SE and SW of continent
It is likely that the global proportion of Category 3-5 tropical cyclone
increased over the past 4 decades
What responses are set to increase for a 2C global temperature rise above baseline for Tropical Cyclones
Proportion of category 4-5
Associated average precipitation rates
Marine heat related events have
Doubled in frequency
Longer lasting
More intense and extreme
Intensity of marine heatwaves is projected to
Increase about 10-fold under RCP8.5 by 2081-2100 relative to 1850-1900 (MC)
Relatively low levels of global warming will see
Ecosystem threshold collapse
Strongest events of ElNino/LaNIna have occured during
Last 50 years
ElNino/LaNina events are likely to
Increase in frequency in 21st century
Increase intensity of existing hazards across globe
Twice as often under both RCP 2.6 and RCP8.5 when compared to 20th century
Distribution shifts of species is
Moving polewards and upwards
Coral bleaching is triggered by
1-2C increase in SST above long-term summer maximum
91% of surveyed reefs show some bleaching in GBR
There is a % increase in acidity since pre-industrial times
30
Species clocks are affected by either
Day length
Temperature change
