Exam 2

Question 1

What is screening criterion used for in multi-criteria decision analysis?

Answer 1

To filter out unwanted options

Question 2

Name some facts about structuring a problem “problem definition”!

Answer 2

1. Problem definition should be done before structuring the model
2. is used to identify significant aspects of a problem
3. Allow identifying means-objectives and ends-objectives of a problem

Question 3

Name a critical mistake in weighting criteria?

Answer 3

weighting criteria based only on the respective notion of importance

Question 4

what is a constructed descriptor?

Answer 4

?

Question 5

what is a direct descriptor?

Answer 5

?

Question 6

what is an indirect discriptor?

Answer 6

?

Question 7

What properties should a family of criteria possess?

value tree

Answer 7

1. Be complete
2. Be non-redundant and concise
3. Be consensual
4. Be decomposable

Question 8

name some facts about projects’ portfolio resource allocation problem!

Answer 8

1. The optimization approach is able to identify optimal portfolios
2. The solution of an optimization problem may not identify ab efficient portfolio

Question 9

What does the software PROBE inform the decision-maker about in a resource allocation problem about?

Answer 9

?

Question 10

how does conditional probability work? how is it calculated?

Answer 10

?

Question 11

Describe Huwick’s rule!

Answer 11

?

Question 12

Describe Savage’s rule!

Answer 12

?

Question 13

what is stochastic dominance? (of different orders)

Answer 13

?

Question 14

Name some facts about the chance node in a decision tree and regarding their branches and how they correspond to a set of results!

Answer 14

1. They have to be mutually exclusive

2. They have to be collectively exhaustive

Question 15

Name some facts about Monte Carlo Simulation!

Answer 15

1. it is possible to repeat the results obtained in a simulation
2. it is possible to model interdependent relationships between input variables
3. it is NOT necessary to define the distribution of probabilities of the output variable

Question 16

Name some facts about the strategic focal issue

Answer 16

The importance of the strategic focal issue is associated with the definition of environments and frameworks, creating a platform for discoveries and explorations, which allows anchoring, disciplining and filtering the entire creative process of information gathering and processing. Associated with the focal issue is also the time horizon

Question 17

What is the key elements for selecting the time horizon in a scenario analysis?

Answer 17

the time horizon should be defined taking into account the sufficient period of time for significant hangesto occur in historical relationships and trends

Question 18

what is weak signals?

Answer 18

Strategic surprises

• -> signs or symptoms of surprises that are still at some distance in time
• -> information is initially inexact
• -> signals are vague, hazy and difficult to interpret
• -> become gradually more individualized making them easier to decipher

Question 19

In the root causes of diagnostic error the “no default” category may happen why?

Answer 19

because of unusual presentation of a disease

Question 20

why is it important to use pre-appraised evidence for decision support?

Answer 20

because we only want to include the best evidence available

Question 21

what is external validity of a clinical trial?

Answer 21

the generalization of the results to other patients

Question 22

what are the best characteristics of the methodology of the best available information?

Answer 22

1. selects and synthesizes the best available information
2. has a specific methodology
3. its synthesis is used to support clinical decision making
4. gives an overall view of the evidence available
5. needs explicit rules to critical appraisal of the evidence