Estimating, Risk and Issue Management Flashcards
What are the four common approaches to estimating ?
Delphi
Analogous
Parametric
Analytical
Risk is an important part of estimating why?
We most allow for the uncertainties that may have an effect on our project
An estimate is ?
An educated guess
An estimate should have a ________ and the accuracy of estimates should ___________.
Range
Improve over time
As we understand more about the project and it’s requirements and discuss and engage with experts and do the work we would expect the range of inaccuracy to reduce this is called ?
Estimating funnel
Estimating funnel is a ______ of the increasing levels of estimating ________ that can be achieved through the phases of the lifecycle.
Representation
Accuracy
An estimate is a forecast of the ?
Probable time or cost of completing work
A subjective estimate
A vague and inaccurate estimate
Early stage of a project
Analogous estimate
Once more information and the requirements are known a comparison can be made between previous jobs and the current one
Parametric estimate
Once everything is finalised
The work and material for each work package from the WBS are measured
Analytical / bottom-up estimate
The cost of each work package up through the levels of the WBS to get a cost estimate for the whole project .
This provides a very accurate estimate
Optimistic estimates can lead to ?
Working late or missing deadlines
Estimates should be checked to determine whether they represent ?
Effort or duration
Effort represent the ?
Cost of the work
Duration represents ?
The time it will take to complete the work
For a network only duration is required for the network to determine the ?
Critical path
Risk management = a key activity for ?
The project management team
Risk management has four key steps ?
Identification of the risk
Analyse there probability and the impact
Response and decide if they need to mitigated if so how and implement that mitigation
Closure , where we close the risk
Risk are normally identified through ?
Brainstorming
Through a risk workshop or part of a planning workshop
Workshops have a facilitator or a agenda. The agenda consists of several risk areas such as :
Technical
Operational
Economic
Environmental
Social
Political
The risk must be expressed in terms of the :
Cause
The area of uncertainty
The effect
Once identified the risk must be analysed in terms of ?
Probability and impact
Probability describes ?
How likely the risk is to happen ; usually at some sort of percentage score
The impact describes
The impact on the project objectives of the risk occurs ; the assessment is made on the basis that we are not not taking any mitigating action.
Probability and impact are assessed on a ?
5 by 5 grid with the scales being low :
Very low
Low
Medium
High
Very high
We need to establish what we mean by these labels before we start the process.
Different areas of the grid are differentiated by different Colors
Green - the risk is an acceptable area and can be reviewed periodically no action is required
Amber - acceptable but be reviewed frequently in case their probability or impact increases and takes them
In to the red area
Red - significant and high priority some action must be taken to reduce either the probability or impact
In the response stage we must decided how to mitigate the risk as there are ____ main mitigating actions
5
1.PREVENT: Ask if it possible to prevent the risk ?
2.REDUCE: Consider if is possible to reduce the probability or impact to an acceptable level ?
3.FALL BACK PLAN: Have a plan in place if the risk occurs
4.ACCEPTANCE: hope for the best(not appropriate for red risks)
5.TRANSFER: can the risk be transferred to another party ?
5 responses
Prevent
Reduce
Fall back plan
Acceptance
Transfer
One or more mitigating action can be chosen and the decision is made based on the ?
Cost of action and the difference it would make
Closure : once the response has been decided the plan must change to take account of it this may mean we have ?
To amend the network
Change some of the estimate
likely that as we estimate each task and look at the associated risk we have to revisit the network until we are satisfied that the associated risks can be achieved whilst keeping the risk at a an acceptable level :
It may take a considerable amount of time to complete properly
Once the action is implemented during the response step it must be monitored
For effectiveness during the project :
- When the risk has passed it is closed
- if any risk occur they become a problem to deal with, the risk itself is closed
- if there any risk associated with the live operation then are based into BAU and the risk is closed
The risk must be recorded in the _______ so they can be reviewed throughout the project
Risk register
We must ensure that the mitigating actions are having ______, keep an eye out for _________ and ensure the risk we have accepted haven’t changed _____
The desired effect
New risks
Adversely
Threat :
Something that if it happened would have an adverse impact on the project objectives
Modern risk management also includes ______ as risks
Opportunities
An opportunity is a?
Uncertainty that if it was to happen would have a positive impact on the project objectives
In response to an objective we could reject because it’s not worth doing we could also ?
Make it more likely , which we call enhance the opportunity
Or exploit the opportunity
Additional opportunity responses:
Share
Plan an option
Share opportunity:
We can share the benefit with a third part who can safest whether we are able to take advantage of an opportunity or not
This is similar to transferring a threat and it usually associated with the context pricing mechanism ( share the pain and share the gain)
Plan an option opportunity:
If the project develops in a certain way then we may be able to take the opportunity and we prepare a plan in case this happens.
Plan an option is similar to fallback
For threats
Risk responses summarised : Threat
- prevent or avoid the risk so it cannot happen anymore or it doesn’t have an impact.
- reduce its probability or impact
- plan b or fall back
- transfer to a third party
- accept the threat because it isn’t very serious
Risk responses summarised : opportunity
EXPLOITthe opportunity or take advantage
Enhance it or make it more likely to happen
SHARE IT with a third party
PLAN AN OPTION in case things develop in a particular way
REJECT the opportunity because it isn’t worth it.
Risk management is one of the keys to a successful project but In order to monitor the situation and the effect of the mitigating actions we need to know ?
What the effects are, by recording the risk in a risk register
A risk register contains
- A reference number for identification purposes
- Description which provides details of the risk
- Probability provides an idea of the likelihood of the risk occurring
- impact describes the complication that may arise if the risk occurs
- counter measure describes the mitigating action that will it can be taken given the risks occurrence
A residual risk is where you will record the probability and impact of the risk after actions are implemented.
The risk owner is the person responsible for monitoring and it’s current status
A risk is closed when ?
It can no longer happen
- the entry is maintained for audit
Purposes in the future
It is unusual for a project to complete without there being some problems along the way many of which are dealt with by the ?
Project manager and the team
Some time resolution of a problem is outside the authority level of the pm and team or they are unable to resolve the situation these are called ?
Issues
- a problem that is now Breaching or is about to breach delegated tolerances for work on a project or programme. Issues require support from the sponsor to agree a resolution
Tolerance is the permissible ______ from the plan without reference to the next level management.
Deviation
A risk is something which has ?
A concern or problem is something which the PM is ?
Uncertainty
Authorised to deal with
An issue is something that left unresolved will cause the plan to ?
Exceed its tolerance and should be immediately escalated for advice and guidance
The overall process for issue management is quite straight forward:
The issue is raised and logged the project manager evaluates it and recommends a solution
The project manager escalates this to the sponsor and or the steering group who make a decision which the project manager implements
The issue log is updated with the progress of the issue and is used in project reviews to establish the outstanding issues that require further attention or escalation
At the end of the project the issue log provides a useful source of lessons learned
Estimating by use of a detailed WBS structure is known as WBS
Analytical
Risk management is applicable ?
Through out the project
Lifecycle
The effect of reducing a risk is ?
The consequence and/or likelihood of the risk are reduced
Estimating uses different methods to produce a prediction of the _____ and ____ required to complete the scope of the work to the defined _______.
Time and resources
Quality requirements
Estimates have multiple purposes:
- to conduct economic analysis for investment appraisals and option selection to support judgements about value for money.
- as an essential input for creating a resourced schedule
- to enable budget setting and consideration of affordability
- as the starting point for risk analysis and contingency determination
There are are choice of methods to produce an estimate - the actual adopted depends on:
- the point of the lifecycle where the estimate is being carried out
- the time available
- and the amount of detailed information that existing concerning the scope and working approaches
Parametric: Uses a _______ relationship between historic data and other variables to calculate and estimate. The specification of each deliverable are established together with the particular parameters that apply.
Statistical
Parametric estimating can be one of the most accurate techniques for determining a projects ______ and ______, provided the scope being estimated accurately represents the expected final requirements.
Duration and cost