Emerging Infectious Diseases Flashcards
How many emerging pathogens are zoonotic?
How many emerging zoonotic pathogens are vector transmitted?
How many emerging/re-emerging diseases affecting humans have originated in animals (21st century)
- 75%
- 70%
- 75%
What are emerging infectious diseases
= diseases that have recently
~ increased in incidence
~ spread geographically - e.g. due to climate change, mosquitos survive in more contries due to rise in temperature
~ infected a new species or population
- diseases caused by new varients assigned to known pathogen e.g. avian influenza
- pathogens newly resistant to antibiotics
Why are their more EID in developed countries
- more people/livestock so more human-animal contact
- building people areas in close quarters to animals
- pasture next to arable crop (maximising land space, little gap between areas) - ecotones allow for lots of wildlife to live between different crops and spread disease
What are the biggest problems that cause EID
vectors and wildlife
Major global health threats
- pandemic risks and other EIDs in humans and animals
- pathogens turning more virulent = infect more easily and have bigger impact on individual affected
- existing pathogens moving into novel areas and hosts
Global challenges to health maanegment
- increased productivity demand
- education (lack)
- increase population
- land use
- anthropogenic effect on nature (human impact e.g. deforestation)
- globalisation
- poverty
- increase demand for food
- natural disasters
- climate change
- movement over boarders
- gov one healthlack cooperation
- increase no. companion animals
antibiotic resistance
Major drivers of EIDs (3 catagories and dirvers)
- drivers that enhance disease spread by existing pathogens into new areas
(increase animal pop, land use, climate change, increased pop density, globalisation, natural resource management challenges) - drivers that increase pathogen virulence
(mass-rearing, use of antibiotics) - drivers of emergance of novel pathogens
(increase human-animal contact, globalisation)
Modelling the rate of EIDs
- the SIR model
- susceptible, infectives and removed
- necessary to determine:
~ factors that increase susceptability (compromised immune system, increase stocking density
~ factors that increase risk of exposure (movement)
~ factors that increase how infectious individual is (e.g. ringworm = only pass by direc contact, TB = aerosol, airborn = very transmissible
~ rate at which susceptible organisms get infected
~ rate at which infected individuals recover or die
Factors that increase susceptability
- new pathogen in previously uninfected area (trade, infected vector or contaminated products)
- movement of naieve individuals where pathogens exist (migration, expanse of agriculture, exploitation of natural resources)
- if existing population are immunosuppressed (aging, poor vaccination program, poverty, undernutrition)
Factors that increase the risk of exposure
- climate change
- high animals density and population
- increased no. of vectors
- industrilisation of animal production
- reduced food safety
Factors that impact infectivity
- compromised immune system (aging, polution, malnutrition, water scarcity)
- inadequate access to veterinary/medical care (lack of funding, remote areas)
- ## excess use of antibiotics = resistant pathogens
Bluetongue Virus - about
- non-contageous vector borne virus
- 27 strains
- emerged from east asia over 1000 years ago
- transmitted via midgies on the wind = Culicoides spp
- host to host transmission = biting midgies
- historically confined to tropical and subtropical areas
- goats ancestral host
- climate change and trade patterns lead to outbreaks on tempret regions
- 9 strains in europe
- UK BT free but risk of midgies
Bluetongue - epidemic 2006-2008
- 2006 ~ BT virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) invaded areas substantially further north than previously
- 2000 cases confirmed end 2006
- queit until June 16th 2007 in germany (virus overwintered)
- rapid spread nov 2007 = 45000 cases
- sept 15th 2007 = first case in UK suffolk (came with animal in fleese = low temperature)
- dec 2007 = 66 cases in east england
Analysis if BTV-8 in france 2007-2008 - 5 themes, 16 variables
- Host availability (density dairy, density of beef cattle, sheep density,)
- Vaccination (No. of vaccinated animals)
- Elevation (metres above sea level) may affect vector abundance
- Landscape-related variables (proportion of area covered by pastures, arable land or forests)
- Meteorological-related variables (average rainfall and temperature 1 month, and 2 months prior to first outbreak)
Analysis if BTV-8 in france 2007-2008 - factors affecting disease emergance and spread (velocity)
- elevation reduced velocity the most followed by vaccination = 4.3km/day
- weather lag increased velosity (spread) the most = 5.3km/day
- average velosity = 4.9km/day