Decisive Flashcards
WRAP process
Widen Your Options
Reality-Test Your Assumptions
Attain Distance Before Deciding
Prepare to be Wrong
Four villains of decision making
- narrow framing- see choices in binary terms- either/or
- confirmation bias- we seek info that supports our belief
- short-term emotion- we lack perspective
- overconfidence about the future
intuitive decisions
quick and accurate but only in domains where one has been carefully trained- to train intuition requires a predictable environmt where you get lots of repetition and quick feedback on choices
How to avoid a narrow frame (3)
Ask what else can we do?- Distrust whether or not decisions
Think about oppty costs
Use vanishing options test
Widen Your Options
1- Avoid a narrow frame
2- Multitrack
3- Find someone who’s solved your problem
Multitracking
- considering several options at once, surfacing other options- even if we decide against it- helps us make better choices
- multitracking keeps ego in check- you don’t get attached to one choice
Reality-test Your Assumptions
1- Consider the opposite- be diligent about how we collect info
2- Zoom out, Zoom in- look for right kinds of info- zoom out for base rates, in for more nuanced impression of reality
3- Ooch- take options for spin before committing
Consider the opposite (3 ways)
- spark constructive disagreement
- devil’s advocate- maybe assign a few people to prepare a case against a proposal
- take each option and ask What would have to be true for this option to be the right answer?
the What Would Have To Be True question (3 points)
take each option, one at a time, and ask this
- Imagine a set of evidence that would persuade us to change our minds- what would that look like?
- What if our least favorite option were actually the best one? What data might convince us of that?
Zoom in, Zoom out
Inside view- our eval of specific situation; outside view- how things generally unfold in situations like ours; outside view is more accurate but most gravitate toward inside
Consult expert?
For base rates, not for predictions
Ooching
To ooch is to construct small experiments to test one’s hypothesis; best for situations that need more info- NOT for situations that require commitment
Why predict s/t we can test?
Why guess when we can know?
Attain distance before deciding
Overcome short-term emotion
Honor your core priorities
Overcome short term emotion (2 methods)
1- use 10/10/10- think about decisions in mins, mos, years
2- ask, what would I tell my best friend to do?
Factors that create change aversion
Mere exposure principle- people develop preference for familiar thgs
Loss aversion- we find losses more painful than gains are pleasant
Ex. Flip coin- heads u pay me $50, tails I pay u a $100- most people don’t play
THESE 2 LEAD TO POWERFUL BIAS FOR STATUS QUO
Prepare to be wrong
1- Bookend the future
2- set a tripwire
Bookend the future
The future isn’t a point, but a range- consider range of outcomes from good to bad
For lower bookend, conduct premortem- “It’s a year later, decision failed. Why?”
For upper bookend, will we be ready for success?
Prospective hindsight- why
-spurs more insights b/c it forces us to fill in the blanks b/t today and a certain future event
FMEA- failure mode and effect analysis
Team members identify what could go wrong at each step and for each failure, ask 2 questions-
How likely is it? and How severe would the consequences be?
Assign score 1-10 for each Q and multiply each by each other
Highest totals felt most attn
Goal of setting a tripwire
to jolt us out of our unconscious routines and make us aware we have a choice to make; deadlines are one example
Ensuring a decision is seen as fair
1- WRAP process b/c consistent
2- involve people and get them to agree- compromise can mitigate risk- which can speed up implementation
3- procedural justice
Procedural justice (3 steps)
- give people chance to be heard
- use accurate info and give people chance to challenge if it’s correct
- explain why decision was made and be candid about relevant risks or concerns
- critical in explaining how people feel about decision-not just outcome matters but process
Benefit of what would have to be true question? (2)
- this allows people to disagree w/o becoming disagreeable
- forces us to imagine a set of conditions where we’d willingly change our minds
Prospective hindsight- what is it
-everyone on team takes a few mins to write down a conceivable reason for project’s failure; TL goes around table asking each person to share single reason until all ideas have been shared
Listening (2)
- state back their position better than they could- they relax because they feel heard
- explain ur plan’s flaws and their plan’s advantages- signals u r making reality-based decision
