Decisive

Question 0

WRAP process

Answer 0

Widen Your Options
Reality-Test Your Assumptions
Attain Distance Before Deciding
Prepare to be Wrong

Question 1

Four villains of decision making

Answer 1

1. narrow framing- see choices in binary terms- either/or
2. confirmation bias- we seek info that supports our belief
3. short-term emotion- we lack perspective
4. overconfidence about the future

Question 2

intuitive decisions

Answer 2

quick and accurate but only in domains where one has been carefully trained- to train intuition requires a predictable environmt where you get lots of repetition and quick feedback on choices

Question 3

How to avoid a narrow frame (3)

Answer 3

Ask what else can we do?- Distrust whether or not decisions
Think about oppty costs
Use vanishing options test

Question 4

Widen Your Options

Answer 4

1- Avoid a narrow frame
2- Multitrack
3- Find someone who’s solved your problem

Question 5

Multitracking

Answer 5

• considering several options at once, surfacing other options- even if we decide against it- helps us make better choices
• multitracking keeps ego in check- you don’t get attached to one choice

Question 6

Reality-test Your Assumptions

Answer 6

1- Consider the opposite- be diligent about how we collect info
2- Zoom out, Zoom in- look for right kinds of info- zoom out for base rates, in for more nuanced impression of reality
3- Ooch- take options for spin before committing

Question 7

Consider the opposite (3 ways)

Answer 7

• spark constructive disagreement
• devil’s advocate- maybe assign a few people to prepare a case against a proposal
• take each option and ask What would have to be true for this option to be the right answer?

Question 8

the What Would Have To Be True question (3 points)

Answer 8

take each option, one at a time, and ask this

• Imagine a set of evidence that would persuade us to change our minds- what would that look like?
• What if our least favorite option were actually the best one? What data might convince us of that?

Question 9

Zoom in, Zoom out

Answer 9

Inside view- our eval of specific situation; outside view- how things generally unfold in situations like ours; outside view is more accurate but most gravitate toward inside

Question 10

Consult expert?

Answer 10

For base rates, not for predictions

Question 11

Ooching

Answer 11

To ooch is to construct small experiments to test one’s hypothesis; best for situations that need more info- NOT for situations that require commitment
Why predict s/t we can test?
Why guess when we can know?

Question 12

Attain distance before deciding

Answer 12

Overcome short-term emotion

Honor your core priorities

Question 13

Overcome short term emotion (2 methods)

Answer 13

1- use 10/10/10- think about decisions in mins, mos, years

2- ask, what would I tell my best friend to do?

Question 14

Factors that create change aversion

Answer 14

Mere exposure principle- people develop preference for familiar thgs
Loss aversion- we find losses more painful than gains are pleasant
Ex. Flip coin- heads u pay me $50, tails I pay u a $100- most people don’t play
THESE 2 LEAD TO POWERFUL BIAS FOR STATUS QUO

Question 15

Prepare to be wrong

Answer 15

1- Bookend the future

2- set a tripwire

Question 16

Bookend the future

Answer 16

The future isn’t a point, but a range- consider range of outcomes from good to bad
For lower bookend, conduct premortem- “It’s a year later, decision failed. Why?”
For upper bookend, will we be ready for success?

Question 17

Prospective hindsight- why

Answer 17

-spurs more insights b/c it forces us to fill in the blanks b/t today and a certain future event

Question 18

FMEA- failure mode and effect analysis

Answer 18

Team members identify what could go wrong at each step and for each failure, ask 2 questions-
How likely is it? and How severe would the consequences be?
Assign score 1-10 for each Q and multiply each by each other
Highest totals felt most attn

Question 19

Goal of setting a tripwire

Answer 19

to jolt us out of our unconscious routines and make us aware we have a choice to make; deadlines are one example

Question 20

Ensuring a decision is seen as fair

Answer 20

1- WRAP process b/c consistent
2- involve people and get them to agree- compromise can mitigate risk- which can speed up implementation
3- procedural justice

Question 21

Procedural justice (3 steps)

Answer 21

• give people chance to be heard
• use accurate info and give people chance to challenge if it’s correct
• explain why decision was made and be candid about relevant risks or concerns
• critical in explaining how people feel about decision-not just outcome matters but process

Question 22

Benefit of what would have to be true question? (2)

Answer 22

• this allows people to disagree w/o becoming disagreeable

- forces us to imagine a set of conditions where we’d willingly change our minds

Question 23

Prospective hindsight- what is it

Answer 23

-everyone on team takes a few mins to write down a conceivable reason for project’s failure; TL goes around table asking each person to share single reason until all ideas have been shared

Question 24

Listening (2)

Answer 24

• state back their position better than they could- they relax because they feel heard
• explain ur plan’s flaws and their plan’s advantages- signals u r making reality-based decision