decision making and reasoning Flashcards

1
Q

decision making

A

when we make decisions or judgments, we use heuristics guided by the principles of what we expect

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2
Q

psychological theory

A

framing of information as well as emotions can guide how we asses risk when we make choices - ie prospect theory

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3
Q

neuroscience

A

activity in emotional areas of the brain (amygdala) are linked to framing effects and prospect theory

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4
Q

loss aversion and amygdala processing (de martino et al, 2010)

A

people avoid gambles (choices) when they are equally likely to either lose a small amount $10 or win a larger amount $15

patients with bilateral amygdala lesions lack loss aversion on gambling tasks compared to healthy controls

suggests that amygdala plays a key role in loss aversion

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5
Q

neuroeconomics

A

studying how we make decisions, formalizing theories and linking it to the development of the brain

  • combo of economic theory, neuroscience and psychology
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6
Q

reasoning

A

a thought process that brings an individual to a conclusion

guides decision making

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7
Q

inductive reasoning

A

making general conclusions from specific observations (specific to general)

conclusions can be false - when we are unaware of inductive reasoning, it can become a heuristic

a “probably but not definitely true” type of reasoning

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8
Q

importance of inductive reasoning

A

basis of much of human learning

applying learned rules to new situations

language learning - learning the meaning of balloon when you see “purple balloon dog” when you already know ‘purple’ and ‘dog’

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9
Q

deductive reasoning

A

using general theories to reason about specific observations (general to specific)

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10
Q

logic

A

deductive reasoning: formal systems for generating statements that will be true if rules of the system are followed

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11
Q

syllogisms

A

deductive reasoning problems that involve two premises and a conclusion

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12
Q

validity of syllogisms

A

is the conclusion true given the premises’ logical form

valid = logical rules, not truth

ex. valid structure
(all A are B, all B and C, therefore, all A are C)

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13
Q

atmosphere effect

A

people rate a conclusion as valid when the qualifying words in the premise match those in the conclusion

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14
Q

mental model theory

A

people construct mental simulations of the world based on statements to judge logic and validity

why we fall for negative statements - hard to imagine the absence of something

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15
Q

omission bias

A

idea that withholding is not as bad as doing
- inaction is harder to classify as wrong than action

another reason why people have trouble reasoning with negative action

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16
Q

belief bias and syllogisms

A

people have problems reasoning with syllogisms in which logical validity conflicts with truth

the content of a syllogism can lead to errors due to belief bias - the tendency to think a syllogism is valid if the conclusions are believable

more dominant for invalid syllogisms
- when a conclusion is believable, people are much less likely to question its logic, whereas when a conclusion is unbelievable, it is much harder for people to accept, even when the logic is sound

17
Q

conditional reasoning

A

“if p then q” statements where p is the antecedent and q is the consequence

18
Q

watson’s four card test

A

ps shown 4 cards and given an if p then q statement

ex. if a card has a vowel has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the other side, which two cards should you flip?

E, F, 2 or 5

lots of people don’t test correctly - instead, rely on confirmation bias (tendency to seek out information that confirms what you believe)

instead, have to rely on falsification principles

19
Q

falsification principle

A

you need to look for situations that would falsify a rule

rule to solve if P then q
- choose the P card and the not Q card

20
Q

familiarity effects

A

people do better on the watson four card task on familiar topics

example:
if a person is drinking a beer (P), then the person is over 21 years old

many more people can solve this task than the more abstract version

21
Q

when do biases occur

A

when heuristics are over applied

systematically inaccurate choices that don’t reflect a current situation

22
Q

three categories of heuristics

A

ones that:
- bias how we interpret info
- bias how we judge frequency
- bias how we make predictions

23
Q

representativeness bias

A

probability that an item (person, object, event) is a member of a category because it resembles thay category

related to over use of schemas, and other preexisting knowledge structures

stereotyping, base rate neglect, and conjunction fallacy

24
Q

base rate neglect

A

we ignore important rate information when reasoning

25
conjunction fallacy
assumes a greater number of specific facts are more likely than a single fact
26
the availability bias
the easier it is to remember something, the more likely you'll think it is to happen in the future (memory base bias) affects how we estimate risk
27
illusory correlations
linking two co occuring events and assuming a relationship outcomes tend to be overemphasized/can affect how we predict outcomes in the world
28
anchoring and adjustment heuristic
people's judgements of the magnitude of something is biased by some initial value that they are exposed to
29
gambler's fallacy
the false belief that a predicted outcome of an independent event depends on past outcomes (assume outcomes are linked when they are random) people continue to invest after several losses on the stock market
30
hot hand belief
thinking that a person who experiences success will keep having success ---- 'a winning streak'
31
predicting risk and optimism
we overestimate the likelihood of positive events happening to us and underestimate the likelihood of negative events presence of depression moderates this effect
32
post morten vs pre mortem technique
post: learning from failures pre: more useful - anticipating and preventing mistakes before they result in catastrophe - looking ahead at challenges that could cause failure - create plan to navigate those challenges