Decision Making Flashcards
Heuristics
Rules of thumb that are likely to provide the correct answer to a problem but are not foolproof.
Availability heuristic
states that events that are more easily remembered are judged as being more probable than events that are less easily remembered (homicide vs. appendicitis deaths)
Illusory correlations
occur when a correlation between two events appears to exist, but in reality there is no correlation or it is much weaker than it is assumed to be.
Representativeness Heuristic
states that the probability that A is a member of class B can be determined by how well the properties of A resembles the properties we usually associate with class B.
Base rate
relative proportion of different classes in the population (librarians vs. farmers)
Conjunction rule
states that the probability of a conjunction of two events (A and B) cannot be higher than the probability of the single constituents (A alone or B alone).
Law of large numbers
the larger the number of individuals that are randomly drawn from a population, the more representative the resulting group will be of the entire population.
Myside bias
Tendency for people to generate and evaluate evidence and test their hypotheses in a way that is biased toward their own opinions and attitudes.
Confirmation bias
Selectively looking for information that conforms to a hypothesis and overlooking information that argues against it.
Utility
outcomes that achieve a person’s goals.
Expected Utility Theory
People are basically rational
Expected emotions
Emotions that people predict they will feel for a particular outcome. People believe that a loss will have a greater impact than a gain of the same size.
Incidental emotions
Emotions not caused by having to make a decision; related to a person’s general disposition and feelings at the time.
Status quo bias
the tendency to do nothing when faced with making a decision.
Ultimatum game activates
Anterior insula when rejecting an offer, PFC when accepting or rejecting an offer.
Syllogism
Two premises followed by a third statement called the conclusion.
Validity
Whether the conclusion logically follows from the premises. Does not have to be true.
Belief Bias
The tendency to think a syllogism is valid if its conclusion is believable. “Some students are irritable.”
Mental Model
A specific situation represented in a person’s mind that can be used to help determine the validity of syllogisms in deductive reasoning.
Modus Ponens
First premise: if p then q Second premise: p Conclusion: therefore, q Valid "If I study, I'll get a good grade. I studied. Therefore, I'll get a good grade."
Modus Tollens
1: If p then q
2: not q
Conclusion: therefore, not p
Valid
Falsification principle
To test a rule, it is necessary to look for situations that would falsify the rule.
Permission schema
If a person satisfies a specific condition, then he or she gets to carry out an action.
Deductive Reasoning
Reasoning that involves syllogisms in which a conclusion logically follows from premises.
