Decision Making Flashcards
Are groups better at making decisions?
- Generally speaking yes, but better than individuals
- You learn more in groups, and remember things more
- Groups perceptions of others is more accurate
How does groups make decisions?-
- No one reach a decision the exact way as other groups but there is a general process
- O-D-D-I
- Usually happen in this order but some phases can happen simultaneously or in different order
- Following these steps makes it more likely to make better decisions
Orientation Phase
- A problem that needs a solution
- Planning the work
- Goal Clarification
Specify goals, what challenges might we face, who will we evaluate the work, whats the requirement to pass - Goal - Path Clarification
How will we do the work, tasks and subtasks, how will we make decisions, organizing roles and explicit norm, milestones and deadlines - Shared understanding on everything that needs to be done?
- Takes time but is more efficient long-term, better decisions etc
What are the problems with orientation phase?
- Planning fallacy
- Relying on previous experiences,
- Wanna get started right away
- Associate planning with something bad, or planning is boring
Discussion Phase
- Communication of information between two or more people in a group
- Expressing views, opinions, different perspectives
- Gathering information and processing it more thoroughly together with others, asking questions, alternative options
- Discussing improve the groups memory
- Increases the quality of the groups decisions with information related to the task
- Easier to identify errors and mistakes, time consuming
Information processing model
Assumes that people strive to make good decisions by getting the info needed and going through it thoroughly
Collective memory
A groups combined memories, alot of networks
- A group remember more things, and can specialize in different areas
Transactive memory system
Storing and retrieving information
- Team experience and trust
Cross- cuing
- The enhancement of recall that occurs during discussions
- Serving as cues to remember more things
What are the difficulties of discussions?
- Requires motivation, skill and practice
- Assume their skill is enough to discuss things
- Relies on previous experiences
- Groups are forgetful, especially without discussions
- Same biases apply to groups as individuals, but amplified in groups
(conformation bias, selective information gathering, social loafing) - Group members misunderstand each other
- Problems during meetings
Poor planning, lack of communication skills, egocentric behaviour etc
Decision Phase
- You reached a decision, go to implementation
- If not, go back a few stands
Social decision scheme
Combining individual input into one decisions and group members accept it
- Explicit or implicit processes
Averaging Scheme
- Statistics
- Computer draws the average of everyone´s input, accurate
- No discussion, no benefits from that
- Can be skewed
- Lack of responsibility
Reaching consensus
- Unanimous decision, happens different ways
- High levels of commitment and task satisfaction
- Takes time, can lead to misfire
- Sensitive questions
- Long term positive effects on effects
- Holding back information
Voting Scheme
- Majority wins, doesnt mean its always right
- Publicly or in secret
- Internal conflicts, not everyone can be satisfied
- Group pressure
Delegation Scheme
- Sharing decisions
- One takes the decision and delegate the work to others
- Outside expertise
- Avoid responsibilities and blame others
Implementation Phase
- Implement your decision
- Evaluate the decision
Social justice
Perceptions of the fairness of the decision, based on two types of justices
Distributive justice
Perceived fairness of the distribution of rights, and resources and cost
- Did the exams get evaluated equally?
Procedural justice
Perceived fairness and legitimacy of the methods used to make a decision, resolve conflicts and allocate resources
- Did the teacher correct the exam the right way?
Whats perceived as a good implementation?
- A successful implementation depends on both justices
Personal views, fair procedures, everyone´s input, morally and ethically sound - Voice effect - engagement
- Getting outside help if plan is faulty
- Groups spend more time on unnecessary things than going over the decision
- Overconfident
- If the decision is wrong, tendency to deny responsibilities and blame others
What are decisional biases?
- Individual biases can get amplified in groups, thus making it harder to reach goals
- Judgemental Biases, Shared information biases and Group polarization
What is judgmental biases?
- Failing to correct cognitive and emotional biases, clouds our judgments
Use information inappropriately, form conclusions too quickly and overestimate our accuracy - Discussion, fully exploiting members experiences and expertise
- Reward good decisions
Sins of Commision
Misusing information, basing decisions on false or irrelevant information
- Belief perseverance
- Hindsight Bias
- Sunk Cost bias - reluctance to give up ones belief when youre too invested
- Extra-evidentiary bias - using information that has been told to not use
Sins of omission
Failure to seek out information, overlooking useful information and no critical mindset
- Fundamental attributions error
- Conformation bias
Sins of imprecision
Relying on readily, easy access, available information, oversimplifying the decision or introducing errors into the decision process
- Availability Heuristic
- Representative heuristic
- Conjunction bias - failing to recognize that the probability of two events occurring together will be less than the probability of just one event happening
Shared information bias
The tendency for groups to spend more time discussing information that all people know and less time on examining information that only few know
- Happens often
- Hidden profile problem
What causes shared information bias to happen?
Reflects the dual purposes of discussion
- Informational influence - sharing information to make decision
- Normative influence - influencing each others opinions on the matter
-People want to finish things quickly
- Personal preferences or motives
- External pressure, like deadlines
Can shared information bias be avoided?
- Shifts focus to unshared data with experience
- Actively discuss their decisions and do it longer
- Diversity of opinions
- There are some tools
Group polarization
- The tendency to move toward the extreme outcome or choice, happen often in groups
- Preliberation preferences
Risky-shift effect
The tendency for groups to make riskier decisions than individuals
Cautions-shift effect
After discussing going for the less risky alternative in choice dilemmas questionnaire
What does this shifts do?
- Change members attitudes, beliefs, vies, judgements and perceptions
- The direction of the shift depends on individuals initial preferences
- Push away from the center
What are the causes of polarization?
- Social influence processes
- Social comparison
- Persuasive arguments
- Social Identity
What are the consequences of polarization?
- Can yield positive effect, individual and group efficacy
- Encourage the strengthening of positions within the group that goes unexpressed or is suppressed
- Discussions, make use of diversity, experienced members
Groupthink
A mode of thinking that people engage in when they are deeply involved in a cohesive group
- Striving for unity over logic, wanting to agree with everyone else
What are the symptoms of groupthink?
Overestimation of the group
- We are doing just fine while titanic is sinking
Closed-mindedness
- Not open for new ideas of perspectives
- Collective rationalization through shared justifications
- Stereotyping
Pressure toward Uniformity
- Everyone on the same side or else
- Self-censorship
- Illusion of unamity
- Social pressure
Illusions of invulnerability
Thinking youre doing well but youre not
Assurances and confidence from group
Illusions of morality
The members believe in the group and its choices
Mindguard
A group member that shields the group from negative or controversial information
What are the causes for groupthink?
- Faulty decision making strategies of the group
- Cohesiveness: critical thinking isnt needed
- Structural faults_ inhibiting information flow, isolating the group from others, leadership style
- Provocative situational context: relieve stress through group discussion, choosing something quickly
