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AE 424 Final > Cost Estimation: > Flashcards

Cost Estimation: Flashcards

1
Q

Cost estimation is a blend of ___ and ____.

A

Art, Science

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2
Q

True or False: a high degree of accuracy is attainable without much effort

A

False

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3
Q

Factors that affect cost estimation?

A

Optimism
Marketing
Blaming/Killing the messenger
Scoping of requirements

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4
Q

Ways to get better cost estimates:

A
  1. Study lessons learned
  2. insist on estimation integrity
  3. Analyse cost early on
  4. Define project better
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5
Q

Cost Estimation Methods:

A
  1. Bottom up analysis
  2. Analogous Estimating
  3. Parametric Esimating
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6
Q

Estimation Method: Bottom up Analysis

A

estimate based on material/labor costs

not appropriate for conceptual design phase

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7
Q

Estimation Method: Analogous

A

Experience based approach (heuristic)
based on similar products
can be applied at any level
Not flexible during trade studies due to limited past cases

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8
Q

Estimation Method: Parametric

A

Based on CERs (Cost Estimation Formulas)
Can apply complexity factor for changing tech
Accounts for hardware dev

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9
Q

Cost Estimation methods with appropriate lifecycle phase:

A

Pre A & A - Parametric
B - Any method
C - Bottom up (detailed)
D - Bottom up (detailed)

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10
Q

True or False: Use of the detailed cost estimation method increase over project maturity.

A

True

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11
Q

True of False: Use of the parametric cost estimation method increases over project maturity.

A

False

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12
Q

Pros & Cons: Parametric Estimation

A

Pros:
- less time consuming
- more effective for what ifs
- More consistent estimates
- Traceable to past space systmes
Cons:
- applicable to set range of historical data
- Must adjust CERs for new technology an shit
- Usually not accurate for later phases in project

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13
Q

CER

A

Cost Estimate Formula:

We fit curves to data points between some measured parameter (weight/volume) and associated cost

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14
Q

We should ____ historical data to account for gradual inflation over time when using the parametric estimation method.

A

Normalize/Adjust/Account for

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15
Q

The ‘complexity factor’ for a CER ______ with the increase in component design changes.

A

Complexity

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16
Q

CER Complexity Factor:

A

Used to adjust CER for unique features unaccounted for in historical data.

17
Q

What is the learning curve for cost estimation?

A

The idea that we learn how to use less resources and do things faster with each iteration of a design.

18
Q

Formulae: Learning Curve

A 
Y = k*x^n
Y - production effort unit (hours,$)
k - first unit effort
x - number of units
n - learning factor (percentage)
19
Q

The learning curve factor for aerospace projects is approximately ____ %.

A

85%

20
Q

Cost estimates include ____ aspects of mission effort

A

All

21
Q

Multi-System Wraps:

A

costs incurred when integrating subsystems

22
Q

Cost distributions skewed to the right are ____ costly.

A

More

23
Q

Cost distributions skewed to the left are ____ costly.

A

Less

24
Q

The _____ _____ _____ is a method used to sum cost distributions.

A

Monte Carlo Simulation

25
Q

What does an “S-Curve” show?

A

The cost risk relationship

26
Q

The ______ is a result of the statistical summation of cost distributions.

A

S-Curve

27
Q

An S-Curve shows _____ that a project will cost an estimated amount or less.

A

Confidence

28
Q

We want the S-Curve to track to the ____ as the project matures.

A

Left: results in higher probability of lower cost.

29
Q

What is cost phasing?

A

Spreading the estimated cost over the design phases, years, or other time metric.

30
Q

Complex, single copy, projects have a ___, ___ skewed BETA curve. (left, right, even short, tall)

A

Tall, Left

31
Q

Complex, multiple copy, projects have ____, ____ skewed BETA curve. (left, right, even short, tall)

A

Tall, Even

32
Q

Simple, single copy, projects have ____, ____ skewed BETA curve. (left, right, even short, tall)

A

Short, Even

33
Q

Simple, multiple copy, projects have ____, ____ skewed BETA curve. (left, right, even short, tall)

A

Tall, Right

34
Q

A beta curve shows the relationship between ____ and ______

A

Cost and time

35
Q

True or False: wraps cost 33% of project

A

True

36
Q

True or False: 75% of recurring cost is incurred by the CDR.

A

False.

75% of non-recurring by CDR

AE 424 Final (21 decks)

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