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AICC > CON 270 Exam 1 > Flashcards

CON 270 Exam 1 Flashcards

1
Q

How do Contracting Specialist use statistics?

  1. Developing __________ objectives
  2. Developing an estimate of risk in ______ / ___ analysis
  3. Developing _______ and _______ price
  4. Developing an estimate of risk in ________ ____ decision
A

Government
profit / fee
minimum and maximum
contract type

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2
Q

_______ _________ is the central value around which data observations tend to cluster.

A

Central Tendency

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3
Q

__________ is the closeness of the clustering or variation within the data set.

A

Dispersion

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4
Q

Average in central tendency is the ____.

A

Mean

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5
Q

Middle in central tendency is the ______.

A

Median

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6
Q

The ____ is most frequent but not necessarily the “majority”.

A

Mode

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7
Q

Four measures of Dispersion

are _____, ________ , ________ _________, and ___________ __ _________.

A

Range
Variance
Standard Deviation
Coefficient of Variation

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8
Q

When asked about Relative accuracy, use __.

A

CV (Coefficient of Variation)

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9
Q

More dispersion (variability) equals greater ____.

A

risk

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10
Q

________ is the average squared estimating error.

A

Variance

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11
Q

________ _________ is the average estimating error.

A

Standard Deviation

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12
Q

___________ __ _________ is the average % estimating error

A

Coefficient of Variation (CV)

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13
Q

A skew of 0 is ________ distributed.

A

normally

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14
Q

A skew that is positive is _____ skewed.

A

right

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15
Q

A skew that is negative is _____ skewed.

A

left

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16
Q

________ kurtosis is flat.

A

Negative

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17
Q

________ kurtosis has a peak.

A

Positive

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18
Q

A kurtosis of 0 is ________ distributed.

A

normally

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19
Q

The skewness in the data tends to effect the ____ more than the ______.

A

mean

median

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20
Q

When data is skewed, the ______ is more representative of the data.

A

median

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21
Q

With __% confidence the Population ____ will fall between the ___ and ___.

A

90
Mean
min and max

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22
Q

________ deals with dispersion.

A

Accuracy

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23
Q

When an observation departs significantly from the center of the data it is typically referred to as an “_______”.

A

outlier

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24
Q

An outlier is greater than + or - 2 times the ________ _________.

A

standard deviation

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25
Q

A __________ _________ is a statistical range with a specified probability that a given parameter lies within the range.

A

Confidence interval

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26
Q

Confidence intervals allow us to make a probability statement about the __________ mean

A

population

27
Q

When do you use stratified sampling?

A

with a large bill of materials

28
Q

What does the confidence level tell ?

A

The more confident you need to be, the wider the prediction interval will be

29
Q

Outliers have most impact on which measures of central tendency & dispersion?

A

mean and the variance

30
Q

Equal chance of underrun or overrun?

A

median

31
Q

What are the two basic types of CER?

A

Cost/cost

Cost/no cost

32
Q

__________ ________ is when you have a large bill of material to be evaluated, there is a statistical technique recommended that saves time and, therefore, money.

A

stratified sampling

33
Q

____ __________ ____________ is a Base/Pool relationship between a dependent variable and an independent variable.

A

Cost Estimating Relationship

34
Q

Cost Estimating Relationships permit __________ _________ without generating excessive amounts of data

A

reasonable estimates

35
Q

____ / ____ and ____ / ___-____ are two types of Cost Estimating Relationships.

A

Cost/Cost

Cost/Non-Cost (Product)

36
Q

These Variables
Dependent = Pool = Indirect = Y
drive

A

Independent = Base = Direct = X

37
Q

Calculate Dependent and Independent Variables with ____ / ____.

A

Pool / Base

38
Q

In a Cost / No Cost situation, the no cost aspect will be your ____________ ________ which is the Base.

A

independent variable

39
Q

______ ________ is a quantitative technique used for contract cost and pricing that uses an average of past observations to estimate and analyze estimates.

A

Moving Averages

40
Q

______ and ______ are the two types of moving averages?

A

Single

Double

41
Q

______ ______ ________ are used when there IS NO time-series data trend.

A

Single Moving Averages

42
Q

______ ______ ________ are used when there IS a time-series trend in the data

A

Double Moving Averages

43
Q

What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?
1. Does the available data verify the _________ and ________ of the proposed relationship?

A

existence and accuracy

44
Q

What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?
2. Is there a _____ in the relationship?

A

trend

45
Q

___ is the average or typical estimating error where the unit of measure is in dollars or hours.

A

SEE (Standard Error of the Estimate)

46
Q

__ and ___________ ___ ____ are 2 Statistics used to measure

“Goodness of Fit”

A

r2 (Coefficient of Determination)

Probability Not Zero

47
Q

__ is the % of Explained Variation

A

r2

48
Q

__ is variation in Y is caused by X

A

r2

49
Q

__ tells you the strength of the relationship between two variables

A

r2

50
Q

If ___________ ___ ____ is lower, consider using a factor

A

Probability Not Zero

51
Q

__________ ___ ____ needs to be as close to 100% as possible

A

Probability Not Zero

52
Q

___________ ___ ____ tells you how Confident you are that a relationship exists between
X & Y

A

Probability Not Zero

53
Q

________ __ ________ is how well the regression equation fits the data.

A

Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)

54
Q

Linear Equation

A

Yc = A + BX

Y=Pool=dependent=indirect
A= Y intercept
B= slope
X=Base=Independent= direct

55
Q

__________ analysis is a statistical technique that attempts to explore and model the relationship between two or more variables.

A

Regression

56
Q

What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?
7. Would a ________ ________ or ______ __________ with actuals from a prior effort produce more accurate results?

A

detailed estimate or direct comparison

57
Q

What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?
6. Is the CER a ____-__________ prophecy?

A

self-fulfilling

58
Q

What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?
5. Would another ___________ variable be better for developing and applying a CER?

A

independent

59
Q

What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?
4. How _______ is the CER?

A

current

60
Q

What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?
3. Is the CER used ____________?

A

consistently

61
Q

What is proposal modeling?

A

The best way to understand how the proposed costs roll together

62
Q

What term is known as the marginal cost?

A

slope

63
Q

What are the steps of the CER?

A

1Define the dependent variable
2Select independent variables to be tested
3Collect data on the variables
4Explore the relationship between the dependent and independent variables
5Select the relationship that best predicts the dependent variable
6Document your findings

AICC (19 decks)

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