Cognitive Background - Exam 1

Question 1

What was Paul Meehl’s major contribution?

Answer 1

Meehl believes simple algorithms out-perform humans, simple rule = better than expert

Question 2

Are Algorithms better than experts?

Answer 2

Yes because experts overcomplicate & are inconsistent since we’re associative machines

Question 3

Parameters for trusting expert -> when can recognition-primed decision making
take place (2 key rules)

Answer 3

• Predictable environment

- Opportunity to learn predictions

Question 4

When so statistical algorithms outperform experts?

Answer 4

?????

Question 5

Inside view + optimism bias = planning fallacy

Answer 5

Somehow without changing anything you will perform better + you think things just work out = I’m just going out there and will be winning/overly unrealistic best case scenario

Question 6

outside view

Answer 6

Outside view is your comparable reference (stats) which is rooted in system 2
The person who isn’t you but statistically looks like you

Question 7

how is overconfidence based in system 1?

Answer 7

Intuitions!!! We think they are beliefs/real

Question 8

how can overconfidence be maladaptive

Answer 8

can manifest in sunk-cost fallacy
resulting in you preserving in a project to would have been more adaptive to
give up on

Question 9

reference class forecasting

Answer 9

the method of predicting the future, through looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. Reference class forecasting predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecasted.