Climate change

Question 1

Historical CO2 and temperature variation

Answer 1

There is no correlation between CO2 and global temperature in deep time.

Question 2

But more recently there has been

Answer 2

a strong association between CO2 and temperature

Question 3

Globally averaged GHG concentrations, CO2 now over 400ppm

Answer 3

CH4 at 1700 ppb and N2O at 320 ppb

Question 4

Global anthropogenic CO2 emissions correspond to the increase

Answer 4

In atmospheric GHG concentrations

Question 5

Increase from 1970 to 2010

Answer 5

Of 22Gt of anthropogenic GHG 65% through fossil fuels

Question 6

Land and ocean temperatures 1850-2017

Answer 6

Steep increase from 1970 industrialisation, land is almost over 1.5°C and sea is at 0.75°C

Question 7

2010-2020 +1°C and +0.45m sea-level rise

Answer 7

2100 +4°C, +0.73m sea-level rise

Heavier precipitation

Question 8

IPCC 2018 Special report on global warming of 1.5°C

Answer 8

Threatened ecosystems, extreme weather events, large scale singular events, coral die-off, arctic region, coastal flooding, river flooding

Question 9

Case study: ‘Hot-dogs’ African Wild Dog -
Woodroofe et al. 2017 J. Anim Ecol 86: 1329-38
Trade-off between temperature and activity

Answer 9

High temperatures:
• reduced activity
• longer inter-birth intervals 
• poorer pup recruitment
Primarily arise from direct impacts on body temp

Question 10

Case study:
Pied flycatchers & trophic mismatch

Both et al. 2006 Nature 441, 81-83
Both et al. 2010 Proc Roy Soc B 277, 1259-1266

Answer 10

Food abundance and time of breeding used to be matched however food is becoming abundant earlier meaning more caterpillars and and fewer flycatchers

Question 11

Which species most vulnerable?

Kellermann et al 2012 PNAS

Answer 11

Those in the tropics

Question 12

Latitudinal range shifts

Chen et al 2011 Science 333, 1024-1026

Answer 12

Europe, America, Chile
Mean rate 16.9 km per decade, but much variation:
i) faster in areas with more rapid warming
ii) broadly speaking range shifts track climate change, but far from always
iii) Species traits don’t
predict lag
(Angert et al 2011 Ecol Letters 14, 677-689)

Question 13

Range shifts: altitude

Answer 13

Observed elevational range shifts more limited than latitudinal shifts with large lag to expected shift
Species traits poor predictors of altitudinal shifts mainly because they move to a different face of mountain instead of moving upwards

Question 14

Predicting range shifts – bioclimatic envelope models

Principle is to record the relationship between a species current distribution and the current climate

Answer 14

Then feed predictions of future climate into this relationship to predict future distributions

climatic atlas of european breeding birds - Breeding distributions in 50km x 50km cells in 1985-1988
Predictions for 2100
3 climate models, ‘middle of the road’ emissions scenario

Question 15

Case study: dartford warbler Simulated presence late 21st century

Answer 15

Northward shift and decrease in overall range size

Question 16

General findings

NE shift in range boundary: typically ‘several hundred km’

Answer 16

Average future range 80% of current range: 31 species <10%
Average overlap of current & future ranges 38- 53%:
mean for endemics 14-34%; 10 species 0%

Question 17

Global predictions

Bioclimatic envelope models for 1,103 endemic animal and plant species in numerous regions

Answer 17

Highlights important general points re emission scenarios and dispersal
Thomas et al. 2004 Nature 427, 145-148
Extinction risk much higher with max emissions and with no dispersal (9-13% vs 38-52%)

Question 18

Global predictions
Extinction risk based on species-area relationship, assume z = 0.25 (based on data)

S = cAz

Answer 18

i) Changes in summed area of all species
ii) Mean % loss of area of each species = % species extinctions
‘faithful to species-area relationship as halving habitat area leads on average to loss of half of the range of each species’
iii) Similar to 2nd method but done separately for each species

Question 19

Problems with bioclimatic envelopes
Spatial scale – based on average conditions in a large grid cell.
Giménez-Benavides et al 2007 Annals of Botany 99, 723-734

Answer 19

Spatial scale appropriate for conservation planning?

Ignores local adaptation - assumes that all individuals have an identical response to climate

Question 20

BCE Local individuals can have a ‘home advantage’ i.e. evidence of local adaptation

Answer 20

Assumes that climate regulates range limits – ignores biotic interactions
Jankowski et al 2010 Ecology 91, 1877-1884

Question 21

BCE Ignores evolutionary rescue – hard to predict but may be important

Answer 21

Carlson et al 2014 TREE 29, 521-530

Question 22

Should bio-climatic envelope models be ignored?

Willis et al 2009 Conserv. Letts. 2, 46-52

Answer 22

Marbled white & small skipper
Introduced to two sites north of range but predicted to be suitable
Populations increased steadily following the introductions

Question 23

Assessing vulnerability (climate change, extinction risk, population size, viability) to climate change

Answer 23

Sensitivity: inter-specific variation in effects of climate change in population growth rate (depends on climatic tolerance, geographic range size, population size, trophic level)

Adaptability: Ability to cope with climate change in situ to change behaviour or evolve, ex situ to migrate (depends on behavioural and phenotypic plasticity, reliance on specific habitat, specificity of species interactions, genetic diversity, populations size and fecundity, and dispersal ability)

Exposure: nature and magnitude of climate change experienced (depends on changes in average or extreme temperature, precipitation, snow fall, snow melt timing, drought, floods, fire intensity and frequency

Question 24

Conservation implications

Dawson et al 2011 Science 332, 53-58

Answer 24

x axis - exposure to climate change and barriers to dispersal

y axis - sensitivity and adaptive capacity

High vulnerability = high exposure, high barriers to dispersal, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity

Preparedness = low exposure, high sensitivity/low adaptability

Low-intensity intervention = High exposure, low sensitivity and high adaptive capacity

Question 25

Recommendations include

Answer 25

a) enhance connections between, or join up, sites, either through physical corridors, or through stepping stones’

b) create new sites
12 nature improvement areas identified in 2012

Question 26

Created new sites for colonists

Answer 26

Ham Wall RSPB reserve

Question 27

Assisted colonisation

Hoegh-Guldberg et al 2008 Science 321, 345–346

Answer 27

When the risk of extinction is high and translocation is technically feasible and outweighs the biological and socioeconomic costs

Question 28

Impact of mammal introductions

check slides

Intra: within continent
Inter: between continents
C-CI: continent to close island C-RI: continent to remote island
1. Large decline of 1 native species
2. Extinction of 1 native species population 3. Multiple declines or extinctions

Answer 28

Riccardi & Simberloff 2009 TREE 24, 248-253

1. Large decline of 1 native species
2. Extinction of 1 native species population
3. Multiple declines or extinctions

Question 29

Assisted colonisation to the UK

Thomas 2011 TREE 26, 216 -221

Answer 29

Pyrenean desman
Iberian lynx
Spanish imperial eagle
Caucasian wing-nut tree

Question 30

Maxwell, 2016

8,688 spp near threatened, vulnerable, endangered or critically endangered

Answer 30

Over-exploitation n#1
Agricultural activity n#2
Urban development n#3

Question 31

Traditional conservation & climate change

Answer 31

IUCN red list assessment:
reasons for declines poorly known:
• changes in sea temperature,
• fisheries - competition and incidental capture
• introduced predators are all likely
Fighting ‘enemies of old’ more important?

Affected by droughts and high temperatures
IUCN red list assessment ‘The growing and unabated threats of habitat loss and unregulated hunting are major challenges to Hippo population viability and persistence’.
Fighting ‘enemies of old’ more important

Question 32

Summary Climate change is an important threat

Mechanisms poorly understood and specific predictions are tricky

Answer 32

Currently less ‘impactful’ than traditional threats
Importance of climate change will increase in future, but so will other threats

Clear need to reduce emissions, but most other useful conservation responses should focus on ‘the old enemies’

Question 33

Reading list

Chen et al 2011 Rapid range shifts of species associated with
high levels of climate warming Science 333, 1024-1026

Dawson et al 2011 Beyond predictions: biodiversity
conservation in a changing climate. Science 332, 53-58

Answer 33

Hoegh-Guldberg et al 2008 Assisted colonization and rapid
climate change. Science 321, 345–346

Maxwell et al 2016 The ravages of guns, nets and bulldozers. Nature 536, 143-145