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BIO234_Animal Conservation and Welfare > Climate Change > Flashcards

Climate Change Flashcards

1
Q

How is climate changing?

A
  • always undergone periods of stability and periods of change
  • been warmer than today, ecosystems are adapted for current conditions
  • rapid climate change associated with mass extinction
  • after cooling, we are experiencing rapid warming
  • since 1780s start of industrial revolution
  • past warming = slower
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2
Q

Past warming has been slower
data

A
  • 4 - 7°C over ~5,000 years when moving out of ice ages
  • Now ~ ten times faster
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3
Q

What are we at now in relation to preindustrial levels?

A

Now at ~1.2°C above preindustrial levels

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4
Q

What is the effect of greenhouse gases in atmosphere?

A

prevent sun’s heat from escaping - essential for life

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5
Q

What are anthropogenic -related increases in greenhouse gasses leading to?

A

rapid increases in global temperatures

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6
Q

What has extensive climate modelling shown?

A

humans are driving rapid warming

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7
Q

What has overwhelming scientific consensus shown?

A

(~97%)
Climate change is caused by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases

no scientific body of national or international standing disagrees with this view

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8
Q

What is main greenhouse gas driving temperature rise?

A

CO2

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9
Q

What was the previous ppm (CO2) and now?

A

high 300 parts per million ~300,000 years ago
now: average ~424ppm May 2023

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10
Q

What is the rise in CO2 ppm caused by mainly?

A

fossil fuel burning

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11
Q

What is the next largest contributor after CO2?

A

Methane

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12
Q

How much has atmospheric methane increased by?

A

about 150% since 1750

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13
Q

What are the sources of methane?

A
  • Livestock production - belch methane
  • waste management
  • release from sediments e.g. in Arctic, previously encased in permafrost
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14
Q

What else is changing other than temperatures?

A

warming not occurring evenly across globe

rainfall patterns - changing rapidly

sea ice melting, especially in Arctic - oceans are becoming more acidic

increase in extreme heat, heavy rainfall and agricultural/ecological drought

2021 IPCC report

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15
Q

Current and estimate of temperature above preindustrial levels

A

currently at - 1.2°C above preindustrial levels

could reach 4°C by the end of the century unless large changes are made on a global level

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16
Q

What are the responses to climate change for species?

A

environmental change alters the adaptive peak of high fitness

species need to change accordingly or risk extinction

they can change:
- spatial distribution
- local phenotype (including behaviour)
- phenotype (timing of life events)

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17
Q

What are the responses to climate change?

A

extinction
geographic range shifts
altered phenologies
biome regime shifts

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18
Q

When would extinction occur in relation to climate change?

A
  • if species unable to change rapidly
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19
Q

What do future extinctions relate to in terms of climate change?

A

depend on extent of climate change
and assumptions made when making predictions e.g. does extinction occur after 100% habitat loss, or before this?

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20
Q

Where to predictions of extinction come from?

A

models of species distribution under predicted future climatic conditions

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21
Q

What is the mean extinction risk from studies?

A

7.9% with a 95% confidence interval of 6.2% to 9.8%

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22
Q

What taxonomic groups and locations are more vulnerable to extinction?

A
  • amphibians and reptiles = terrestrial endotherms = vulnerable to temp change and may have temp-dependent sex determination
  • areas w/ many endemic species that have small ranges = particularly vulnerable
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23
Q

Within amphibians and reptiles, what are the most important determinants of extinction risk?

A

distribution and population size

24
Q

How many extinctions so far?

A

few, 33 of 872 (3.7%) of extinctions from IUCN cite climate change

25
Q

How much has climate change increased extinction risk by so far?

A

average of 14%

26
Q

Are local extinctions common or uncommon?

A

much more common

27
Q

What was the first species to go extinct due to anthropogenic climate change?

A

The Bramble Cay melomys (Melomys rubicola)

28
Q

Where are species moving as temperatures rise? (geographic range shifts)

A

away from equator as temperatures rise

29
Q

What did Hickling et al. (2006) find out? (geographic range shifts)

A

84% of 329 British species showed clear evidence of northward range shifts between 1960 and 2000
not always a habitat for them to move into

30
Q

What species are shifting? (geographic range shifts)

A

marine species = shifting, probably faster than terrestrial species

31
Q

What species are the most mobile? (geographic range shifts)

A

(e.g. phytoplankton) moved 470km per decade

32
Q

What effect will geographic range shifts have?

A

effect food web

33
Q

What is occurring in many species? (Altered phenologies)

A

changes in timing events (e.g. reproduction)

34
Q

What is the best record of altered phenologies?

A

from Japanese cherry blossom (Prunus jamasakura)

35
Q

Are altered phenologies a threat to biodiversity?

A

not on their own

36
Q

When do altered phenologies become a threat to biodiversity?

A

when changes reduce fitness
e.g. by leading to population asynchronies

37
Q

Example of altered phenologies affecting fitness

A

timing of reproduction of great tits = not changes with climate, but peak data for caterpillars (their food source) has
leads to reduction in fitness of late-laying birds

38
Q

Example of biome regime shifts

A

woody plants started growing at high latitudes (e.g. Arctic tundra) and altitudes (e.g. previously alpine meadows/heathlands)

e.g. heather heathland in Spanish mountains replaced by oak forest

39
Q

Where are kelp forests dominating? (biome regime shifts)

A

dominated along western coast of Australia until 2011, when extreme heat caused the kelp to die off
replaced with different community that suppresses kelp

40
Q

What have the heatwaves caused? (Biome regime shifts)

A

repeated mass bleaching of the great barrier reef in recent years

41
Q

Coral reefs data (biome regime shifts)

A

best case scenario (1.5°C warming) 70-80% loss
>99% loss at 2°C warming

42
Q

Other effects than on biodiversity?

A

will we have enough food?
will our ecosystem services still function?
we need to adapt rapidly

43
Q

Types of managing effect of climate change

A

International agreements
Governmental action
Refugia and safe havens
Optimising migration pathways
Assisted colonisation
Building evolutionary resilience
Climate mitigation and green infrastructure

44
Q

What are the most important international agreements as a management of climate change effects?

A
  • The Paris Agreement: a legal binding international treaty on climate change
  • adapted by 196 Parties at COP 21 in 2015
  • its goal = to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C
  • requires substantial cuts in greenhouse gas emissions

pledges and targets aren’t sufficient enough to reduce global warming to 1.5°C
and current policies are way off
Future pledges = expected to bring us closer

  • At COP26 Glasgow 2021 some more ambitious commitments were made
  • COP27 Egypt 2022 shift to loss & damage finance and implementation
  • COP28 in United Arab Emirates 2023 is coming up
45
Q

How much have per capita fossil fuel CO2 emissions changed by? (Governmental action)

A

almost halved in UK since 1970s

not including emissions associated with imports

46
Q

How much has the UK reduced fossil fuel CO2 emissions with trade included? (Governmental action)

A

reduced fossil fuel CO2 emissions by 39% since peak in early 2000s

47
Q

Where were species able to survive during past climatic shifts? (Refugia and safe havens)

A

many species able to survive in refugia; areas that avoided worst impacts of climate change

48
Q

Where are refugia and safe havens?

A
  1. describe species’ modern distributions in terms of the climate
  2. search for the same climatic niche using forecast future climate conditions
    e.g. snow leopards
49
Q

Optimising migration pathways

A
  • species need to reach refuges
  • need to ensure migration corridors exist
  • e.g. Yellowstone to Yukon (Y2Y) project
  • Covers 2 countries, 5 U.S. states, 2 Canadian provinces, the land of > 30 Native American and First Nation governments
  • Named by the IUCN-World Conservation Union as one of world’s leading conservation initiatives
50
Q

Assisted colonisation

A

Should we help move species to new suitable habitats?
- e.g. critically endangered western swamp turtle (Pseudemydura umbrina) = moved 250km outside current range in Australia to cooler areas after its swamps started drying up

Or are we opening a Pandora’s box of invasive species?
- e.g. introducing disease-free Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) to an island in 2012 to protect them from facial tumor disease
- Tasmanian devils did well, but wiped out some of island’s breeding sea bird colonies

Assisted colonisation may be useful tool in some cases, but careful risk assessment is required

51
Q

Building evolutionary resilience

A
  • some species evolve to cope w/ changing climate
  • maximise chances this occurs; need to ensure sufficient genetic variation by: increasing population sizes, locating and protecting areas of high genetic diversity; translocate genes; assisted evolution; identity species with low adaptive potential

translocate genes = e.g. translocate individuals from warmer parts of species range to cooler parts, or translocate corals that show resistance to bleaching

assisted evolution = captive breeding individuals with greater ability to survive climate change, e.g. corals

identify species with low adaptive potential = for other conservation measures

52
Q

What has an important role to play in halting climate change? (Climate mitigation and green infrastructure)

A

biodiversity
e.g. carbon sequestration via reforestation, protecting from deforestation, and ecosystem restoration
e.g. biodiversity can protect us from climate-related disasters

53
Q

What project aims to use green infrastructure to absorb water to prevent floods? (Climate mitigation and green infrastructure)

A

China’s ‘sponge city’ project aims to use green infrastructure to absorb water, preventing floods

54
Q

Components of climate change

A

Mean levels, variability, maxima and minima, frequency, predictability, seasonality

Greenhouse gases
- concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O

Temperature
- air, sea surface, freshwater

Precipitation and ice
- rain and snowfall, ice cover

Ocean dynamics
- sea levels, water currents

Ocean acidification
- pCO2, pH

Extreme events
- floods, droughts, storms, fires

55
Q

Levels of biological response

A

Genes -> Species -> Communities

Evolution
- mutation, natural selection, speciation

Organismal physiology
- fecundity, survival, circadian rhythms, disease susceptibility

Population dynamics
- recruitment, age structure, sex ratios, abundance

Species distributions
- ecological niches, range size

Interspecific interactions
- competition, predation, parasitism, mutualism

Ecosystem services
- biomass production, water availability, pest control, tourism

BIO234_Animal Conservation and Welfare (17 decks)

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