Chp 7 Flashcards
Decision Making
the conscious process of making choices among alternatives with the intention of moving toward some desired state of affairs
Rational choice decision
selecting the best alternative by calculating the probability that various outcomes will occur from the choices and the expected satisfaction from those outcomes
6 steps to rational decisions
- identify problem
- choose the best decision process
- discover or develop possible choices
- select the choice with highest value
- implement
- evaluate
Mental models
knowledge structures that we develop to describe, explain and predict the world around us
Bounded rationality
view that people are bounded in their decision-making capabilities, including access to limited information, limited information processing and tendency toward satisficing rather than maximizing when making choices
Implicit favorite
the preferred alternative that decision maker uses to repeatedly as a comparison with other choices
Confirmation bias
the processing of screening out information that is contrary to our values and assumptions and to more readily accept confirming information
Anchoring and adjustment heuristic
natural tendency for people to be influenced by an initial anchor point such that they do not sufficiently move away from that point as new information is provided
Availability heuristic
natural tendency to assign higher probabilities to objects or events that are easier to recall from memory, even though ease of recall is also affected by non probability factors (ex emotional response)
Representativeness heuristic
natural tendency to evaluate probabilities of events or objects by the degree to which they resemble other events or objects rather than by objective probability information
Satisficing
selecting an alternative that is satisfactory or “good enough” rather than the alternative with the highest value
Intuition
ability to know when a problem or opportunity exists and select the best course of action without conscious reasoning
Scenario Planning
systemic process of thinking about alternative futures and what the organization should do to anticipate and react to those environments
Escalation of commitment
tendency to repeat an apparently bad decision or allocate more resources to a failing course of action
Self-enhancement
person’s inherent motivation to have positive self-concept (and have others view them favorably)