Chapter 7: Causes

Question 1

Causal Thinking

Answer 1

• without conscious effort, you perceive the first event as causing the other
• perceived causation, can be a cognitive illusion

Question 2

An Instinct for Causal Stories

Answer 2

• we instinctively think in terms of causal stories
• a natural bias toward simple causal stories can lead us to oversimplify networks of causes
• tendency to project causal narratives to natural events
• eager to find patterns

Question 3

Clustering Illusion

Answer 3

a form of pattern-seeking which involves expecting random distributions not to cluster

Question 4

One Thing After Another

Answer 4

• common fallacy to infer that B caused A just because B happened after A
• (“after this, therefore because of this”)
• inferring a causal connection from a sequence of events

Question 5

Complex Causes

Answer 5

• “What was the cause?” often has no clear answer
• Out-of-the-ordinary factors are often said to be “the cause” of an event
• but typically a whole network of factors was casually involved

Question 6

Causes and Correlations

Answer 6

• errors in reasoning happen when correlations are mistaken for causation
• verbs like “associate”, “link”, and “relate” state correlations (but are often misread as making causal claims)

Question 7

Three Inferential Steps

Answer 7

1) We observed a correlation between A and B

2) There is a general correlation between A and B

3) A causes B

• strong evidence needed to make each inference

Question 8

What Are Correlations?

Answer 8

• if one factor occurs at higher rate when the other occurs, then the two factors have a positive binary correlation

Question 9

Three Crucial Aspects to Correlations:

Answer 9

1) Correlations have to do with rates or proportions

2) Correlation is symmetrical

3) Correlation can be binary or scalar

Question 10

Correlations: Symmetry

Answer 10

Symmetry: if it holds in one direction it holds in the other

Question 11

Correlations: Binary

Answer 11

Binary correlation relates to yes/no factors

Question 12

Correlations: Scalar

Answer 12

Scalar correlation: present when one factor occurs to a greater degree when the other occurs to a greater degree

Question 13

Illusory Correlations

Answer 13

• one kind of error happens at the first inferential step
• this is when there isn’t even a correlation in but you think is

Question 14

Reasons Behind Illusory Correlations:

Answer 14

• motivates reasoning
• selective noticing
• selective memories

Question 15

Generalizing Correlations

Answer 15

• an error on step 2) of the three inferential steps
• we need a large enough sample to make correlation statistically significant

Question 16

Misleading Correlations

Answer 16

• inferring causation is the trickiest inferential step
• this is because correlations and so often misleading

Question 17

Reverse Causation

Answer 17

• we can get the causal direction wrong

i.e. we think A causes B when in fact B causes A

Question 18

Common Cause

Answer 18

• when two factors are related due to a third factor influencing both

i.e. C (third factor) causes both A and B

Question 19

Side Effects

Answer 19

• when two factors are correlated due to some additional consequence of one of the factors

i.e. B caused by side effect of A

Question 20

Mere Chance

Answer 20

• when a correlation in the population as a whole is merely by chance
• correlation exists but no causal connection can be inferred

Question 21

Evidence and Experiments

Answer 21

How do we get from step 2) to step 3)? From correlation to causation?

• our evidence must pass the strength test:

it is far more likely if A causes B than if A does not cause B

Question 22

Gold-Standard for Establishing Causation:

Answer 22

• double-blind
• randomized controlled trial

Question 23

Randomized

Answer 23

participants randomly divided into two groups and intervention applied to one group only

Question 24

Double-Blind

Answer 24

neither participants nor experimenters are aware of who is in which group