chapter 6 notes

Question 1

What is Population Geography (geodemography)?

Answer 1

the study of the spatial variations in populations

Question 2

World Population Distribution

Answer 2

90% of people live north of the Equator, 66% between 20o and 60o

More than 70% of world’s pop. lives on ~10% of the land

Most live at low altitudes (nearly 80% below 500 metres)

Most live on continental margins (~60% live within 100 km of the ocean)

Question 3

Four major clusters of settlement

Answer 3

East Asia Zone (China, Japan, Taiwan, and Korea).
South Asia (India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka).
European (Most of Europe and Europeanized Russia).
Northeastern US/Southeastern Canada

Question 4

Population Distribution and Density: arithmetic

Answer 4

number of people per unit area of land

Crude measure
Doesn’t take resources into account
Population/total land area

Question 5

Population Distribution and Density: physiological

Answer 5

number of total people per unit of arable (farm) land

population/farmland

Question 6

Malthusian Population Theory

Answer 6

Malthus (early 1800s) worried about population growing exponentially and resources growing linearly
An Essay on the Principle of Population
population growth (exponential) has the potential to outstrip increases in subsistence resources (arithmetic)
Positive checks (famine) and preventative checks (later marriage)

Question 7

Neo-Malthusians

Answer 7

Neo-Malthusians: people with the same views as Malthus

Ehrlich (1960s) warned of a population bomb because the world’s population was outpacing food production

Criticism of Malthus and Neo-Malthusians:
The assumption that the environment determines population size
Malthus didn’t anticipate the food revolutions (cornucopian theory – humans will create new inventions)

Question 8

Crude Birth Rate

Answer 8

BPY/pop @mid-year x 1000

Crude because the denominator is not limited to women

Requires few data which are commonly available and is easy to calculate

Problem: can mask important age or sex differentials
Expected range in values is 10-~50 per 1,000

Question 9

The Crude Death Rate (CDR)

Answer 9

DPY/mid-year pop x 1000

Defined as the number of deaths divided by the population at risk
A poor measure of mortality in some respects (not sensitive to age structure, gender, education etc)
6 is low, 20 is high

Question 10

Infant Mortality Rate

Answer 10

deaths under 1yr / bpy x 1000

is sensitive to poor living conditions and poverty

Is used to compare health and well-being of populations across and within countries

Question 11

infant mortality trends in canada

Answer 11

improved/declined, but levelling off

Question 12

rate of natural increase

Answer 12

Rate of natural increase – annual growth rate for a county or region as a percentage increase

This tells us how much the population is increasing (or decreasing) each year
RNI = (CBR - CDR)

CBR = B x 1000 CDR = D x 1000
P P

Example: world crude birthrate = 21/1,000
World crude deathrate = 9/1,000
World RNI = 21-9=12 births per 1000 or 1.2% annualy

Question 13

RNI practice

Answer 13

2005 Manitoba population: 1,174,000
Live births: 14,801
Deaths: 9,856

CBR: 12.6

CDR: 8.40

RNI: .42% (does not include migration

Question 14

Rate of growth – adding migration

Answer 14

A measure of the average, annual rate of increase for a population

For the world as a whole, it is possible to convert the RNI to the rate of population growth by converting the rate per 1000 to an annual percentage

World RNI is 12 per thousand = rate of population growth, 1.2%

most of the time migration must be considered, making rni different from rate of growth
RNI + or – net migration = growth rate

Question 15

Canadian Statistics:

Population: 33,098,932
Crude birth rate: 10.78 births/1,000 population
Crude death rate: 7.8 deaths/1,000 population
RNI = 0.3% (no migration)

Net migration rate: 5.85 migrants/1,000 population

Population growth rate: 0.88%
Difference is from net migration

US RNI: 0.6%
US growth rate: 1.0%

Answer 15

imp. ones:

RNI = 0.3% (no migration)

Population growth rate: 0.88%
Difference is from net migration

Question 16

Doubling time

Answer 16

The number of years required for a population to double in size
Can approximate this by dividing into 70 the annual rate of population growth

Doubling time = 70
Annual rate of population growth

World = 70
1.2 = 58 years

Question 17

Total fertility rate and replacement level fertility

Answer 17

Total Fertility Rate (TFR): the average number of children a women is expected to have her childbearing years

Replacement level: A rate of births per woman that would guarantee a stable population
estimated 2.1 to 2.3
Compensates for early deaths, and replaces parents

Question 18

Reasons for global fertility decline

Answer 18

improved contraceptives/increased knowledge and acceptance of contraception’s
reduced child mortality (les need to replace children who die)

high rates of urbanization increase the cost-benefit ratio of children

increased education of women has raised earning power and increased the “opportunity cost” of child bearing and child rearing

Improved technology leads to greater return on “investment” (incentive to educate children rather than to have large numbers of kids)

Poverty (usually) = higher fertility levels

Question 19

Demographic Transition

Answer 19

a model describing population change over time
Birth rates
Death rates
Population change
4 stages  (5?)

Studied the change in birth rates, death rates and natural growth rates over the course of British industrialization (200 years ago)

Question 20

The Demographic Transition

Answer 20

Stage 1: Low Growth – preindustrial/premodern stage – birth and death rates are both high. Death rate fluxuates more (wars, famine, epidemics). Short life expectancies (30-40). No countries in stage 1 today.

Stage 2: High Growth – early industrial/urbanizing stage – death rate drops but the birth rate stays high. Improvements in nutrition, political stability, medicine, improved distribution of food medical knowledge and technology, sanitation and hygene all brought death rate down. People are living longer, still having lots of kids for 70-80 years before it starts to adjust. Some countries still in stage 2.

Stage 3: Moderate Growth – death rate still declines, birth rate drops (reasons previously discussed) ie indodesia, india, mexico

Stage 4: Low Growth or Stationary – both birth and death rate low but birth rate on average is higher than death rate.

Stage 5: Negative population Growth? - birth rate drops below the death rate
–does not account for immigration in this model

Question 21

Historical records

Answer 21

Our knowledge remains speculative about :
historical sizes
growth rates

Population data was not collected before the mid 18th century

What sources are used to estimate historical populations?
 archaeolical
 church baptismal
Church marriage records
Church death records

Question 22

Historic and Current Ecumenes

Answer 22

Historically parts of the “developing world” have always comprised densely settled ecumenes

Ecumene: permanently inhabited portion of the world

Nonecumene: uninhabited

Question 23

what are population pyramids

Answer 23

A simple and useful way to examine the age and sex structure of a population

A pyramid is two bar-graphs back to back

Pyramids present “the demographic history of an area over two or three generations”

can identify significant demographic events (eg epidemics, warfare, improvements in survival)

Question 24

pop pyamid convention`

Answer 24

Males on left and females on right
Youngest at base of pyramid
Either single or five year (more common) cohorts
last cohort (80+) may be left out
Bottom scale either absolute numbers or percentages
the choice of scales affects the shape of the pyramid

Question 25

cohorts (pop pyramid)

Answer 25

5 years; Scale (absolute here, in millions); males on right females on left; youngest at bottom, final cohort is 80+

Question 26

Concave shape – “expansive” pyramid

Answer 26

Death rate is falling (top is extended) characterizes les developed countries (Africa, latin America, etc) The “too much” population problem “expansionary” growth process

Question 27

Triangle shape – “transition” pyramid

Answer 27

Reproductive age cohort grows wider Rapidly growing populations birth and death rates falling but still large difference between them We can see a clear transition from an expansionary pyramid to a stationary pyramid

Question 28

Beehive shape – “stationary”

Answer 28

stable population low death rate and low birth rates Average age of the population is increasing “stationary growth process” Example: England, Sweden, US

Question 29

Rectangular Shape/Tapered bottom – “negative”

Answer 29

Similar to beehive, but with a decrease in fertility at bottom cohorts aging population ‘no growth’ population problem Example: Italy, germany, singapore

Question 30

Examples of Pyramid Types: Canada

Answer 30

Expansive — a broad base (high number of children), concave sides and a low number of older people. Ex. nunavut Stationary — a narrow base and roughly equal numbers in each age group, tapering off at the older ages. Ex. manitoba Declining — a high proportion of aged persons and declining numbers Ex. Newf and labra

Question 31

Aging populations

Answer 31

The populations of many countries are aging. - eg. Europe - eg. Japan To replace the population, TFR must be 2.1. - TFR in Bologna, Italy is 0.8 - Why are women having fewer children? What are the impacts of an aging population on a country? What are the “solutions” to an aging population?

Question 32

Dependency Ratio (DR)

Answer 32

A measure of the Productive Capacity of a population, with respect to age structure ``` Productive segment (PS): between 15(20) and 64 years (the workers) Dependent segment (DS): under 15(20) or over 64 (the dependents) DR = DS x 100 PS ``` Therefore it measures the number of dependents that each 100 people in the productive sector must support

Question 33

Example DR

Answer 33

Suppose a country has: 20 million in productive segment 5 million in dependent segment DR=DS/PS x 100 = 5/20 x 100 =25 people that each 100 people in the productive sector have to support Suppose, later, that country has: 15 million PS 10 million DS DR = 10/15 x 100 = 67 people that every 100 working people in the productive sector would have to support

Question 34

Dependency ratios by country

Answer 34

Philippines: 63 : 100 For every 100 workers there are 63 dependents Japan: 60 : 100 Most of the 60 dependents will be elderly, not children Costa Rica: 44 : 100 Iraq: 85 : 100 The closer to 100, the higher the age-dependency ratio

Question 35

High dependency ratios

Answer 35

Note: a high dependency ratio in itself doesn’t tell us whether the large population is in the lower age group or higher age group A high dependency ratio could indicate: An aging population (ie Canada, Italy) with a. Large > 64 population A very young population (i.e. ___ethiopia________) with a large < 15 pop

Question 36

Dependency Ratios

Answer 36

A rough indicator of age distribution Generally, ratio of non-productive to productive age groups Can be affected significantly by disease, warfare, etc Can be used to compare populations The greater the ratio the more dependant the overall population What is the impact of having a high dependency ratio? …

Question 37

Sex ratios

Answer 37

Natural birth sex ratio is 105:100, meaning 105 boys are born for every 100 girls Men have higher mortality rates than women Women live longer than men (on average) India’s sex ratio is 113 boys / 100 girls, and as high as 123 boys in some states chinas sex ratio as 118 boys / 100 girls and as high as 160 boys in rural areas for 2nd births both countries have a strong cultural preference for male children

Question 38

Population Control Policies: pro natalist france

Answer 38

TFR is 2.0 (low by global standards, but one of the highest TFRs in Europe) Pro-natalist policies include: less taxes for large families, subsidized day care under 3 and free full time school places over 3, parental leave and job security for women on maternity leave

Question 39

Population Control Policies: pro natalist russia

Answer 39

The TFR in Russia in 1980 was 2.04 and now it is only 1.34 The Russian government offers cash subsidies of $10,000 to women who give birth to a second or third child National Day of Conception (Sept 12) in one province and 9 months later (June 12) 87 babies were born (4x average)

Question 40

Anti-natalist policy: China

Answer 40

1950 – 1979 the government encouraged later marriage and fewer children In 1979 the government began the One Child Policy free contraceptives offered, abortions and sterilizations were common Penalties, including fines, were levied for a 2nd or 3rd child infanricide (especially girls) was a means of keeping to the policy In 1965, CBR was ~___37_____ births/1,000 people In 1986, CBR was ____18____ births/ 1,000 The policy was successful, and the population is 300 million less than it would have been