Chapter 5 Flashcards
a technique used to recreate a random event
simulation
scenarios where the outcome of any particular trial of an experiment is unknown, but the proportion (relative frequency) a particular outcome is observed approaches a specific value
random process
an unpredictable result or outcome
random
measure of the likelihood of a random phenomenon or chance behavior occurring
probability
as the number of repetitions of a probability experiment increases, the proportion with which a certain outcome is observed gets closer to the probability of the outcome
Law of Large Numbers
nonexistent law that claims, for example, if a woman has given birth to 4 boys, she is “due” for a girl on her fifth pregnancy - previous outcomes don’t affect later outcomes
Law of Averages
any process with uncertain results that can be repeated
experiment
collection of all possible outcomes for a probability experiment
sample space (S)
any collection of one or more outcomes from a probability experiment
event
lists the possible outcomes of a probability experiment and each outcome’s probability
probability model
event that has a low probability of occurring (typically less than 0.05, but not always)
unusual event
calculating probability based on observed results (observations / total) - approximate
empirical method
calculating probability for equally likely outcomes by dividing number of ways an event can occur by the number of possible outcomes
classical method
probability that is determined based on personal judgment
subjective probability
(AKA mutually exclusive) when two events have no outcomes in common - probabilities can be added together
disjoint