Chapter 2: Probability Spaces And Random Variables Flashcards
Sample space
Ω
Set containing every possible outcome
Event
Collection of possible outcomes
Subset of Ω
Subset of sample space
Definition 2.1.1
F, set of subsets
Sigma field
Let F be a set of subsets of Ω. We say F is a sigma-field if:
1) empty and sample space are elements
2) complements are elements
3) unions are elements
P(Ω)
The power set F= P( Ω )
Sub-sigma-field
g is subset of F
g is a sub-sigma-field of F
Ie a more restrictive set of information than F has
Measurable subset
A subset A of Ω is measurable/ a measurable event if A is element of F
Ie A is F-measureable
Ie A is an event
Probability space
(Ω, F, P)
Sample space
Sigma field
Probability measure
Empty set
Test nothing happens
Examples of sigma fields for chosen experiments
Coin toss
H or T
Ω = {H,T}
F= { ∅, {H}, {T} , Ω}
Set of all possible subsets
In order
It’s a test we get nothing ( this has chance 0)
A test we get a Head
A test we get a tail
A test we get a head or tail
Examples of sigma fields for chosen experiments
Coin toss with 2 coins
Ω = { HH, HT, TH,TT}
How we F (set of subset) only contains events we are interested in..
Suppose that all we care about is whether we get two heads
So define F as set of subsets we care about
For example if interested in whether both coins are heads we have
F = { ∅, {H,H}, Ω{H,H}, Ω}
Ie complement of HH is Ω\HH “not HH”
And empty and sample space for sigma field
Test nothing (chance0)
Test HH
Test not HH
Test two coins
Probability measure
P is a function P:F to [0,1] st
1) P[Ω] =1
2) if A_1, A_2,… in F are pair-wise disjoint
(ie A_i intersection A_j = empty set for all I,j st I not equal to j)
Then
P[ Union from I=1 to infinity ] = sigma from I=1 to Infinity of P[A_i] *
*the probability of the Union is the probability that any one of the events happens
- uses the probability of A1 Union A_2 that are disjoint is the sum of the individual probabilities
P[A_1 Union A_2 ] = P[A_1] + P[A_2] - this last condition is sigma additivity
(We have sigma-additivity and * by def 2.1.1 of sigma field)
Probability space
Triple ( Ω, F, P)
Ω sample space
Where F is a sigma-field
And P is a probability measure
Examples of F:
* F= {∅, Ω} this is a no information sigma field as we have Ω the event that anything happens (probability 1) and ∅ the event that nothing happens ( always probability 0)
- we care about one event eg if outcome is in a subset A so we use sigma field:
F= {∅, A, Ω\A, Ω}
These F are sigma fields- we can check the conditions
Single coin toss probability measure
Ω ={H,T}
F= { ∅, {H}, {T}, Ω}
And define P[{H}] | = P [{T}] = 0.5 if it’s a fair coin toss ie probability of a set containing H = probability of the set containing T
And define P(Ω) =1 and P(∅) =0
We want to choose F to be smaller than P(Ω)
Lemma 2.1.5 intersections of sigma fields
Let I be any set. For any i in I let F_i be a sigma-field. Then F = intersections of i in I of F_i
Is a σ-field
Ie we contain all the information that is common to all
Proof: conditions
1) F_i is a sigma field so empty set is an element of F_i and so empty set is an element of intersections F_i
2) if A is an element of F = intersections of F_i then A is an element of F_i for each i. Since each F_i is a sigma-field then Ω\A is an element of F_i for each i. Hence Ω\A is an element of the intersections of F_i
3)
If A_j in F for all j then A_j is in F_i for all i and j. Since each F_i is a sigma-field, unión of A_j is an element of F_i for all i. Hence union of A_j is an element of the intersections of F_i
Corollary 2.1.6
Intersections of sigma-fields σ-fields
If F_1 and F_2 are sigma-fields then so is F_1 intersection F_2
Simple case of lemma
Def 2.1.7
Events in sigma fields
Let E_1, E_2,.. be subsets of Ω.
σ(E_1, E_2,..) is the smallest σ -fields containing E_1, E_2,…
(Any event in any of F_i)
Defined Big curly F
How do we construct a sigma field without writing it down
For a given Ω (sample space), finite or countable E_1, E_2,.. subset of Ω (events). ( we are interested in)
Let big_curly_F be the set of all sigma-fields that contain E_1,E_2,..
Enumerate
Big_curly_F ={ F_i: i is in I}
And by applying lemme 2.1.5 obtain a sigma-field F which contains all events we want
(Each of these F_i contains events we want And maybe some others)
This means F is the smallest σ-field that has E_1,E_2,.. as events
(Applying lemma 2.1.5)
(F is contained inside any σ-field F which has those events we want
And
It’s the smallest σ -field which contains all the E_i’s
As it’s the intersection of all that contain and thus big_curly_F is smaller than all of F_i ‘s
By the lemma
Ie it EXISTS
With Ω as any set and A a subset of Ω
{ empty set, A, Ω\A, Ω} is σ(A)
If F_1, F_2 ,.. are sigma fields then
Write sigma( F_1,F_2,..) for the smallest sigma-algebra wrt which all events are measurable
Properties of events in F
If A is an element of F then Ω\A element of F and since Ω =A ∪(Ω\A) we have 1=P[A] + P[Ω\A]
=P(Ω)=P(A ∪ (Ω\A))
If A,B in F and A subset of B then B=A Union (B\A)
Which gives
P[B] = P[B\A] + P[A]
as P[B\A] is bigger than or equal to 0
Implying
P[A] is less than or equal to P[B]
Lemma 2.1.8
Let A_1, A_2,.. in F where F is a sigma-field. Then intersection from i=1 to infinity of A_i in F
(Countable)
Proof/ we can write
*in general uncountable unions and intersections of measurable sets need not be measurable but lemma may not hold so that F isn’t too large for a Probability measure as harder to define probabilities the bigger F is
The empty set
Is an element of F the sigma-field and is the test that nothing happens
Set of all subsets of Ω
The set of all subsets of Ω is a sigma field
what is the smallest sigma field of unions?
σ(F_1,F_2,…)
Random variables
pre-image
X:Ω to R. For each outcome ω ∈ Ω
X(ω) is a property .
X^-1 (A) = {ω ∈ Ω : X(ω) ∈ A}
is a PRE-IMAGE ( not inverse) of A under X.
and used to find set of outcomes ω ∈ Ω mapping to some set A under X.
X-1(a,b) for interval (a,b)
EXAMPLE
Ω={1,2,3,4,5,6}
and F=P(Ω).
Property X(ω)= {0 if ω is odd {1 if ω is even
ω ∈ Ω
X-1({0}) = {1,3,5} X-1({1}) = {2,4,6} X-1({0,1}) = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
DEF 2.2.1:
Definition of a random variable/measurable function
Let G be a σ-field. A function X:Ω to R is G-measurable if for all subintervals I⊆R we have X-1(I) ∈ G
For a probability space (Ω , F,P) we say that X:Ω to R is a RANDOM VARIABLE if X if F-measurable