Chapter 13: Judgement, Decisions, and Reasoning Flashcards
Judgement
making a decision or drawing a conclusion
Reasoning
cognitive process by which people start with information and come to conclusions that go beyond that information
Decision
making choices between alternatives
Inductive Reasoning
reasoning in which a conclusion follows from a consideration of evidence
this conclusion is stated as being as probably true rather than definitely true, as can be the case for the conclusions from deductive reasoning
Availability Heuristic
events that are more easily remembered are judged to be more probable than events that are less easily remembered
Illusory Correlations
a correlation that appears to exist between two events, when in reality there is no correlation or it is weaker than it is assumed to be
Stereotypes
an oversimplified generalization about a group or class of people that often focuses on negative characteristics
Representativeness Heuristic
the probability that an event A comes from class B can be determined by how well A resembles the properties of class B
Base Rate
the relative proportions of different classes in a population
failure to consider base rates can often lead to errors of reasoning
Conjunction Rate
the probability of the conjunction of two events (such as feminist and bank teller) cannot be higher than the probability of single constituents (feminist alone or bank teller alone)
Law of Large Number
the larger the number of individuals that are randomly drawn from a population, the more representative the resulting group will be of the entire population
Myside Bias
type of confirmation bias in which people generate and test hypotheses in a way that is biased toward their own opinions and attitudes
Confirmation Bias
the tendency to selectively look for information that conforms to our hypothesis and to overlook information that argues against it
Deductive Reasoning
reasoning that involves syllogisms in which a conclusion logically follows from premises
Syllogism
a series of three statements; two premises followed by a conclusion
the conclusion can follow from the premises based on the rules of logic
Premises
the first two statements in a syllogism
the third statement is a conclusion
Categorical Syllogisms
a syllogism in which the premises and conclusion describe the relationship between two categories by using statements that begin with All, No or Some
Validity
quality of a syllogism whose conclusion follows logically from its premises
Belief Bias
tendency to think a syllogism is valid if it conclusion is believable or that it is invalid if the conclusion is not believable
Mental Model Approach
in deductive reasoning, determining if syllogisms are valid by creating mental models of situations based on the premises of the syllogism
Mental Model
a specific situation that is represented in a person’s mind
Conditional Syllogisms
syllogisms with two premises and a conclusion, like a categorical syllogism, but whose first premise is an “If … then” statement
Wason Four-Card Problem
a conditional reasoning task developed by Wason that involves four cards
various versions of this problem have been used to study the mechanisms that determines the outcomes of conditional reasoning tasks
Falsification Principle
the reasoning principle that to test a rule, it is necessary to look for situations that would falsify the rule
Permission Schema
a pragmatic reasoning schema that states that if a person satisfies condition A, then they get to carry out action B
the permission schema has been used to explain the results of the Wason four-card problem
Expected Utility Theory
the idea that people are basically rational, so if they have all of the relevant information, they will make a decision that results in the most beneficial result
Utility
outcomes that achieve a person’s goals
in economic terms, the maximum monetary payoff
Expected Emotions
emotion that a person predicts he or she will feel for a particular outcome of a decision
Risk Aversion
the tendency to make decisions that avoid risk
Incidental Emotions
in a decision-making situation, emotions not directly caused by the act of having to make a decision
Opt-In Procedure
procedure in which a person must take an active step to choose a course of action
for example, choosing to be an organ donor
Opt-Out Procedure
procedure in which a person must take an active step to avoid a course of action
for example, choosing not to be an organ donor
Status Quo Bias
tendency to do nothing when faced with making a decision
Framing Effect
decisions are influenced by how the choices are stated
Risk Aversion Strategy
a decision-making strategy that is governed by the idea of avoiding risk, often used when a problem is stated in terms of gains
Risk-Taking Strategy
a decision-making strategy that is governed by the idea of taking risks, often used when a problem is stated in terms of losses
Neuroeconomics
an approach to studying decision making that combines research from the fields of psychology, neuroscience, and economics
Ultimatum Game
a game in which a proposer is given a sum of money and makes an offer to a responder as to how this money should be split between them
the responder must choose to accept the offer or reject it
this game has been used to study people’s decision making skills
Dual Systems Approach
the idea that there are two mental systems, one fast and the other slower, that have different capabilities and serve different functions
What are decisions?
the process of making choices between alternatives
What is reasoning?
the process of drawing conclusions
What is inductive reasoning?
reasoning that is based on observation
researching conclusions from evidence
What factors determine the strength of an argument?
representativeness of observations
number of observations
quality of observations
How is inductive reasoning used in scientific discoveries?
hypotheses and general conclusions
How is inductive reasoning used in everyday life?
make a prediction about what will happen based on observation about what has happened in the past
What are heuristics?
“rules of thumb” that are likely to provide the correct answer to a problem, but are not foolproof
two more commonly used heuristics include the availability heuristic and the representativeness heuristic
What is the availability heuristic?
events are more easily remembered are judged as being more probable than those less easily remembered
What are illusory correlations?
correlation appears to exist, but either does not exist or is much weaker than assumed
What are stereotypes?
oversimplified generalizations about a group or class of people that often focuses on the negatives
selective attention to the stereotypical behaviors make these behaviors more available
What is the representativeness heuristic?
the probability that A is a member of class B can be determined by how well the properties of A resembles properties normally associated with class B
use base rate information if it is all that is available
use descriptive information if available and disregard base rate information
What is the conjunction rule?
probability of two events cannot be higher than the probability of the single constituents
What is the law of large numbers?
the larger the number of individuals randomly drawn from a population, the representative the resulting group will be of the entire population
What is the confirmation bias?
tendency to conform rather than falsify a hypothesis
What is the myside bias?
tendency for people to generate and evaluate and test their hypotheses in a way that is biased toward their own opinions and attitudes
What is deductive reasoning?
determining whether a conclusion logically follows from premises
What is a syllogism?
two statements called premises
third statement called conclusion
syllogism is valid if conclusion follows logically from it’s two premises
if two premises of a valid syllogism are true, the syllogism’s conclusion must be true
What is categorical syllogism?
describe relation between two categories using all, no, or some
How well can people judge validity?
evaluation: ask people if conclusion follows logically from premises
production: ask people to indicate what logically follows from premises
What is belief bias?
the tendency to think that a syllogism is valid if its conclusions are believable
What is the mental model approach?
a specific situation represented in a person’s mind that can be used to help determine the validity of syllogisms in deductive reasoning
create a model of a situation based on the premises
generate tentative conclusions about model
look for exceptions to falsify model
determine validity of syllogism
What is the Wason Four-Card Problem?
effect of using real-world items in a conditional-reasoning problem
determine minimum number of cards to turn over to test: if there is a vowel on one side, then there is an even number on the other side
What is the falsification principle?
to test a rule, you must look for situations that falsify the rule
What is a pragmatic reasoning schema?
thinking about cause and effect in the world as part of experiencing everday life
What is a permission schema?
if A is satisfied, B can be carried out
What are the evolutionary perspectives on cognition?
evolutionary principles of natural selection
Wason task governed by built-in cognitive program for detecting cheating: in contrast to permission schema
social exchange theory: an important aspect of human behavior is the ability of two people to cooperate in a way that is beneficial to both of them
What is the expected utility theory?
people are rational
if they have all relevant information, they will make a decision that results in the maximum expected ultility
What is utility?
outcomes that are desirable because they are in the person’s best interest
maximum monetary payoff
What are the advantages of the utility approach?
specific procedures to determine the “best choice”
What are the problems of the utility approach?
not necessarily money, people find value in other things
many decisions do not maximize the probability of the best outcome
What are expected emotions?
emotions that people predict that they will feel concerning an outcome
What are immediate emotions?
experienced at the time a decision is being made
What are incidental emotions?
emotions that are not specifically related to decision-making
may be related to one’s general disposition or personality, some recent experience, or one’s general environment or surroundings
can affect one’s overall decision making processes
What is a focusing illusion?
focus on just one aspect of the situation and ignore other aspects that may be important
What is the status quo bias?
the tendency to do nothing when faced with making a decision
What is the framing effect?
decisions are influenced by how a decision is stated
What is one finding of neuroeconomics?
decisions are influenced by emotions, and those emotions are associated with activity in specific areas of the brain
What is the dual systems approach to thinking?
two mental systems
system 1: fast, automatic, intuitive, nonconscious
system 2: slower, deliberative, conscious, controlled
much of our day to day existence is handled by system 1
system 2 takes over when we need to be more thoughtful
