Chapter 12: Judgement, Decisions and Reasoning

Question 1

Reasoning

Answer 1

Cognitive processes by which people start with
information and come to conclusions that go beyond that information

Question 2

Decision

Answer 2

Making a choice between alternatives

Question 3

Deductive Reasoning

Answer 3

Drawing conclusions about what is true based on a set of premises (purported facts) by applying logic; Draw definite conclusions; All mammals are warm-blooded. A dog is a mammal.
→ Therefore, a dog is warm-blooded.

Question 4

Inductive Reasoning

Answer 4

Drawing a conclusion about what is probably true based on evidence; Draw probable conclusions; You see many swans and all are white.
→ You conclude all swans are white (even though this may not be true)

Question 5

Heuristics

Answer 5

Experience based rules that are not guaranteed to provide a correct solution and are mental shortcuts used to make judgments

Question 6

Availability heuristic

Answer 6

Events more easily remembered are judged as being more probable than those less easily remembered; ow easily examples come to mind when estimating the likelihood of an event; Thinking shark attacks are common after watching the news—even if they’re statistically rare

Question 7

Illusory correlations heuristic

Answer 7

Correlation thought to exist, but either does not exist or is much weaker than assumed; tendency to perceive a relationship between two variables when none actually exists, or to overestimate the strength of a relationship that does exist

Question 8

Base Rate

Answer 8

The actual statistical likelihood of something happening, often ignored when people use heuristics.
More truck drivers than literature professors → more likely the poetry-lover is a truck driver

Question 9

Representativeness heuristic

Answer 9

relies on how well an event seems to represent or match a specific prototype or stereotype; probability that A (person, item, etc.) comes from B (group, category, etc.) can be determined by how well A resembles properties of B; thinking someone who loves poetry is more likely to be a professor than a truck driver, despite base rates

Question 10

Conjunction rule

Answer 10

probability of two events happening together (A and B) cannot be greater than the probability of either event happening alone (A or B);
p(A and B) must be <= p(A) and <=p(B)

Question 11

Law of large numbers

Answer 11

emphasizes the human brain’s limited ability to accurately comprehend large numbers, often simplifying them into categories like “many” or “a lot; the larger the number of random samples, the better the estimate provided by the sample

Question 12

The confirmation bias

Answer 12

Tendency to selectively look for information that conforms to our hypothesis and overlook information that argues against it

Question 13

My-side bias

Answer 13

tendency to process information in a way that supports one’s own prior beliefs and opinions, while rejecting information that contradicts them

Question 14

Backfire Effect

Answer 14

People when presented with information that contradicts their beliefs, become more confident in their original beliefs, even if the new information is accurate

Question 15

Syllogism

Answer 15

a logical argument that uses deductive reasoning to arrive at a conclusion based on two or more premises consisting 3 parts: a major premise (a general statement), a minor premise (a specific statement), and a conclusion

Question 16

Categorical syllogism

Answer 16

a type of deductive reasoning task where participants evaluate the validity of a conclusion based on two premises that relate to the category memberships of terms; All birds are animals. All parrots are birds. → All parrots are animals

Question 17

Validity

Answer 17

A syllogism is valid when its conclusion follows logically from its premises and is based only on its form (is it logical); does not depend on truth

Question 18

Truth

Answer 18

The conclusion of a syllogism is true if it correspond to real world

Question 19

Belief Bias

Answer 19

A tendency to believe that a syllogism is valid if the conclusion is believable
e.g., it is believable that some students are tired

Question 20

Mental Model Approach

Answer 20

We visualize situations in our minds to evaluate logical arguments, which are simplified versions of reality used for understanding, reasoning, and decision-making

Question 21

Conditional syllogisms

Answer 21

Draw a conclusion based on whether or not premise p
is true; “If p, then q”; If it rains, the ground gets wet

Question 22

Antecedent vs Consequent

Answer 22

• the conditional premise p may/may not be true “if”
• q the consequence of p being true “then”

Question 23

Modus Tollens

Answer 23

a form of logical inference where, given a conditional statement If P, then Q.
Not Q.
→ Therefore, not P

Question 24

Affirming the Consequent

Answer 24

a logical fallacy in cognitive psychology where someone incorrectly assumes that if the “then” part of a conditional statement (the consequent) is true, then the “if” part (the antecedent) must also be true; If P, then Q.
Q.
→ Therefore, P

Question 25

Deny the Antecedent

Answer 25

a logical fallacy in cognitive psychology where someone incorrectly concludes that if a specific condition (P) is not met, then the expected outcome (Q) will also not occur; If P, then Q. Not P. → Therefore, not Q

Question 26

Falsification principle

Answer 26

to test a rule, you must look for situations that falsify the rule

Question 27

Pragmatic reasoning schema

Answer 27

cognitive frameworks used to make inferences and solve problems in real-world situations; General knowledge about cause-effect in real-world contexts helps us reason; If you borrow a book, you must return it.

Question 28

Permission schema

Answer 28

Specific form of pragmatic reasoning: If a person meets a condition, then permission is granted. If you’re drinking alcohol, you must be over 21

Question 29

Evolutionary Perspective on Cognition

Answer 29

Suggests reasoning evolved to help us survive and cooperate. This explains why we're better at solving logic problems framed as social rules or cheating detection

Question 30

Social Exchange Theory

Answer 30

suggests that people assess the costs and rewards of social interactions and relationships, making decisions based on a perceived net benefit; detect cheating in social interactions—supports the idea that we’re good at permission-based logic

Question 31

Expected Utility Theory

Answer 31

a cognitive perspective on decision-making that suggests People make decisions by calculating which option has the highest expected payoff (utility). Problem: Doesn’t always account for emotions or biases

Question 32

Expected emotions

Answer 32

Emotions you think you’ll feel after making a decision. These can bias choices. Overestimating how bad you’ll feel after a loss → you play it too safe

Question 33

Immediate emotions

Answer 33

Experienced at the time a decision is being made

Question 34

Risk Aversion Strategy

Answer 34

Tendency to overestimate negative consequences can lead to a tendency to avoid risky decisions; Choosing a sure thing to avoid potential loss

Question 35

Integral Immediate Emotions

Answer 35

Emotions that are associated with the act of making a decision e.g., anxiety or fear associated with an important decision

Question 36

Incidental Immediate Emotions

Answer 36

emotions that are unrelated to the decision due to: a person’s general disposition, mood

Question 37

Framing Effect

Answer 37

decisions are influenced by how a decision is stated; Different descriptions can place emphasis on different aspects of the situation

Question 38

Risk-aversion strategy

Answer 38

tendency of individuals to prefer outcomes that are certain over those that involve uncertainty, even when the uncertain option may lead to a better expected outcome; Choosing a sure thing to avoid potential loss

Question 39

Risk-taking strategy

Answer 39

understanding how individuals make decisions under uncertainty, weighing potential rewards and consequences; Choosing the gamble to possibly avoid a loss

Question 40

Prefrontal cortex (PFC)

Answer 40

key brain region involved in decision-making, acting as the brain's "executive center" for higher-order thinking and cognitive control; plays distinct roles in evaluating options, managing conflicts, and making choices based on past experiences and future goals

Question 41

Neuroeconomics

Answer 41

A new approach to studying economic decision making, combines research from psychology, neuroscience, and economics

Question 42

Personal vs. Impersonal Decisions

Answer 42

- Personal dilemmas, where actions directly cause harm to a specific person, tend to trigger emotional responses and involve regions like the medial frontal gyrus and amygdala - impersonal dilemmas, where harm is indirect or the result of a larger system, rely more on cognitive control processes in areas like the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex

Question 43

Anterior insula

Answer 43

brain area associated with negative emotional states, including: pain, distress, hunger, anger, and disgust

Question 44

Omission bias

Answer 44

tendency to do nothing to avoid making a decision that could be interpreted as causing harm; Letting someone die by not giving medicine rather than giving a drug that might fail