Chapter 12 Flashcards
Deductive reasoning
you begin with some specific premises that are true, and you need to judge whether those premises allow you to draw a particular conclusion, based on the principles of logic
Decision making
you must assess the information and choose among two or more alternatives
Dual-process theory
distinguishes between two types of cognitive processing
Type 1 processing
is fast and automatic; it requires little conscious attention
Type 2 processing
relatively slow and controlled; it requires focused attention, and it is typically more accurate
Conditional reasoning (or propositional reasoning task)
describes the relationship between conditions
Syllogism
consists of two statements that we must assume to be true, plus a conclusion
Propositional calculus
a system for categorizing the four kinds of reasoning used in analyzing propositions, or statements
Antecedent
the first proposition or statement; the antecedent is contained in the “if…” part of the sentence
Consequent
the proposition that comes second; it is the consequence or the “…then” part of the sentence
Affirming the antecedent
you say that the “if…” part of the sentence is true (valid, correct conclusion)
Affirming the consequent
you say that the “then…” part of the sentence is true (invalid conclusion)
Denying the antecedent
you say that the “if…” part of the sentence is false (invalid conclusion)
Denying the consequent
you say the “then…” part of the sentence is false (correct conclusion)
The Belief-Bias Effect
occurs in reasoning when people make judgements based on prior beliefs and general knowledge, rather than on the rules of logic
The Confirmation Bias
people would rather confirm or support a hypothesis than try to disprove it
Representative heuristic
we judge that a sample is likely if it is similar to the population from which this sample was selected
Small-sample fallacy
people assume that a small sample will be representative of the population from which is was selected
Base rate
how often the item occurs in the population
Base rate fallacy
paying too little attention to important information about base rate
Conjunction rule
the probability of the conjunction of two events cannot be larger than the probability of either of its constituent events
Conjunction Fallacy
people judge the probability of the conjunction of two events to be greater than the probability of either constituent event
Availability heuristic
when you estimate frequency or probability in terms of how easy it is to think of relevant examples of something
Recognition heuristic
typically operates when you must compare the relative frequency of two categories; if you recognize one category, but not the other, you conclude that the recognized category has the higher frequency
Illusory correlation
occurs when people believe that two variables are statistically related, even though there is no actual evidence for this relationship
Anchoring and adjustment heuristic (anchoring effect
begin with a first approximation, which serves as an anchor; then we make adjustments to that number, based on additional information
Confidence interval
the range within which we expect a number to fall a certain percentage of the time
Framing effect
demonstrates that the outcome of your decision can be influenced by two factors: (1) the background context of the choice and (2) they way in which a question is worded (or framed)
Prospect theory
refers to people’s tendencies to think that possible gains are different from possible losses, specifically:
- When dealing with possible gains (for example, lives saved), people tend to avoid risks.
- When dealing with possible losses (for example, lives lost), people tend to seek risks.
Overconfidence
your confidence judgements are higher than they should be, based on you actually performance on the task
Crystal ball technique
asks decision makers to imagine that a completely accurate crystal ball has determined that their favored hypothesis is actually incorrect; the decision makers must therefore search for alternative explanations for the outcome; they must also find reasonable evidence to support these alternative explanations
Planning fallacy
people typically underestimate the amount of time (or money) required to complete a project; they also estimate that the task will be relatively easy to complete
My-side bias
the overconfidence that your own view is correct in a confrontational situation
Hindsight
refers to our judgements about events that already happened in the past
Hindsight bias
occurs when an event has happened, and we say that the event had been inevitable; we had actually “known it all along”
Ecological rationality
describes how people create a wide variety of heuristics to help themselves make useful, adaptive decisions in the real world
Default heuristic
if there is a standard option, then people will choose it
Maximizers
people who have a minimizing decision-making style; they tend to examine as many options as possible
Satisficers
people who have a satisficing decision-making style; they tend to settle for somethng that is satisfactory
