Book 3_Equity_READING 43_MARKET EFFICIENCY Flashcards
In an informationally efficient capital market
- Security prices reflect all available information fully, quickly, and rationally
- Only unexpected information should elicit a response from traders.
If the market is fully efficient,
Active investment strategies cannot earn positive risk adjusted returns consistently, and investors should therefore use a passive stratege because of transactions costs and management fees.
An asset’s intrinsic value
the price that investors with full knowledge of the asset’s characteristics would place on the asset.
Markets more efficient if
Large numbers of market participants and greater information availability
markets less efficient because
- Impediments to arbitrage and short selling
- High costs of trading and gathering information
The weak form of the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH)
- Security prices fully reflect all past price and volume information
- Technical analysis does not consistently result in abnormal profits.
The semi-strong form of the EMH
- Security prices fully reflect all publicly available information.
- Fundamental analysis does not consistently result in abnormal profits. However, fundamental analysis is necessary
The strong form of the EMH
- Security prices fully reflect all public and private information.
- Active investment management does not consistently result in abnormal profits.
A market anomaly
is something that deviates from the efficient market hypothesis due to:
- the methodologies used in anomaly research, such as data mining or failing to adjust adequately for risk.
Anomalies that have been identified in time-series data
- Calendar anomalies such as the January effect (small firm stock returns are higher at the beginning of January),
- Overreaction anomalies (stock returns subsequently reverse),
- And momentum anomalies (high short-term returns are followed by continued high returns)
Anomalies that have been identified in cross-sectional data
- a size effect (small-cap stocks outperform large-cap stocks)
- and a value effect (value stocks outperform growth stocks).
Other identified anomalies
- closed-end investment funds selling at a discount to NAV,
- slow adjustments to earnings surprises,
- investor overreaction to and longterm underperformance of IPOs,
- and a relationship between stock returns and prior economic fundamentals.
Behavioral finance
- Examines whether investors behave rationally, how investor behavior affects financial markets, and how cognitive biases may result in anomalies.
- Behavioral finance describes investor irrationality but does not necessarily refute market efficiency as long as investors cannot consistently earn abnormal risk-adjusted returns.
irrational behavior
- Loss aversion
- Investor overconfidence
- Herding
Herding
which is a tendency of investors to act in concert on the same side of the market, acting not on private analysis, but mimicking the investment actions of other investors.