Beehler: Biostats Flashcards
What is the frequency/spread of a disease in a population?
prevalence
incidence
attack rate
How well does a test differentiate sick from healthy people?
sensitivity
specificity
*refers to test VALIDITY, how good is this test at comparing those two groups
Of those in a population who test as sick or healthy, how many are truly sick or healthy?
Predictive value
What is the impact of a medicine/treatment?
risk reduction/increase
number needed to treat/harm
What helps you to understand DISEASE BURDEN or the EXTENT of a health problem?
Prevalence (point prevalence)
Period prevalence
during a PERIOD of time
Lifetime prevalence
over the COURSE of a lifeteime
What is the equation for prevalence?
Number of people with a disease at a specific point in time/ Number of people AT RISK for the illness at that point in time
A county in Minnesota has a population of 1,500. In 2013, 180 individuals were diagnosed with type 1 diabetes. Last year, 30 individuals were diagnosed with it. What is the PREVALENCE of type 1 diabetes in this population in 2014?
= (180+30)/1500
= 210/1500
= 0.14
What helps understand the RISK of a specific health event–the number of NEW cases?
Incidence
What is cumulative incidence?
total number reported over time
What is the eqtn for incidence?
Number of NEW people with disease during a time period/ Number of people at risk for illness during that time period
*better for ACUTE cases
A county in Minnesota has a population of 1,500. In 2013, 180 individuals were diagnosed with type 1 diabetes. Last year, 30 individuals were diagnosed with it. What was the INCIDENCE of type 1 diabetes in this population in 2014?
= 30/(1500-180)
= 30/1320
= 0.023
*180 from 2013 are removed b/c they’re no longer new cases
What is attack rate?
Type of incidence used when nature of disease is acute & population observed for short period of time (e.g., outbreaks, specific exposures–flu, chicken pox, exposure)
What is the eqtn for attack rate?
Attack rate = # new cases / # exposed
*short period of time, confined area, exposure is impt (i.e. cholera in Haiti)
What is secondary attack rate?
Secondary attack rate = # new cases / (# exposed – primary cases)
Measures person-to-person spread of disease after initial exposure
*take out ppl who were hit with the flu
Within a kindergarten class, 5 of 35 kids develop chicken pox during a 1-week period. In the next two weeks another 10 kids also come down with chicken pox. What are the attack and secondary attack rates of chicken pox in the classroom?
Attack (whole time)
=(5+10)/35
= 15/35 = 0.43
Sec. Attack (second round)
= 10/(35-5)
= 10/30 = 0.33
What affects prevalence and incidence?
Duration of illness (longer/chronic -> higher prevalence)
Number of new cases (more new cases -> higher prevalence) MORE PPL W/ DISEASE
Migration
- In-migration (ill -> higher prevalence) SICK PPL MOVING IN
- Out-migration (well -> higher prevalence) HLTHY PPL MOVING OUT
- Recovery & death -> lower prevalence
Prevention -> lower incidence REDUCE NEW CASES
Changes in diagnostic criteria or reporting WHAT COUNTS AS SICK/HEALTHY CAN CHANGE (i.e. criteria for AIDS)
What is the relationship between prevalence and incidence?
Prevalence = Incidence x (average) duration* (assumes incidence and duration are stable)
When is prevalence higher than incidence?
disease is long term (diabetes)