Barriers to Reasoning Rationally Flashcards
Do we have a bia to exaggerate the probability of rare events?
-yes
Define: affect heuristic
-tendency to consult one’s emotions (affect) to judge a situation instead of judging probabilities objectively
Define: availability heuristic
-tendency to judge the probability of an event by how easy it is to think of examples or instances
(accounts for unrealistic fear of extremely rare phenomenon)
Define: framing effect
- tendency for choices to be affected by how the choice is presented:
- whether it’s worded in terms of potential loss or gain
People will tend to take a risk if they see it as…
-a way to avoid potential loss
When we avoid loss altogether, we are subject to…
- fairness bias
- accepting low offers to get “something”
- but there is an accepted “unfair amount” that most people will refuse to accept, and rather lose than be made a fool of
Behavioral economics studies…
- how fairness tends to take precedence over rational self interest in economic choices
- economic decisions are not always rational
Explain: The “i knew it all along” phenomena
Hindsight bias
-overestimating one’s ability to have predicted an event once the outcome is known
What is a result of faulty thinking involved in the hindsight bias?
-when we are sure we knew something all along, we will be less willing to find out what we need to know to make more accurate predictions in the future
Define: confirmation bias
-only looking for, or paying attention to information that confirms one’s own beliefs
What is the confirmation bias most prominently evident in?
-politics
What is it called when we solve problems using procedures that worked for us in the past on similar problems?
-mental set
What is a benefit of having our own mental sets?
- makes problem-solving efficient
- we find patterns in events
- it is adaptive, and allows us to exert some control over our lives
What is a downfall of our own mental sets?
-not helpful when new methods are needed: people can blindly cling to old assumptions and beliefs
What is is called when:
- a person’s belief is incongruent with their behavior
- a person holds 2 psychologically inconsistent cognitions
-cognitive dissonance (tension)
What are some basic strategies of relieving cognitive dissonance?
- denial
- rationalization
- rejecting belief
- changing behavior
What are 3 situations in which one is likely to reduce dissonance?
When you need to…
- justify a choice or decision
- justify conflicting behavior
- justify effort put into a choice or decision
Define: postdecision dissonance
- occurs when you believe you made a bad decision
- once a decision is made, the mind no longer remains open, and the confirmation bias kicks in. One will refuse to look for any counter-evidence against their choice
Define: justification of effort
- increased liking for something you have worked hard on or suffered to attain
- a common form of dissonance reduction
Reducing cognitive dissonance helps…
- self-confidence
- sense of fairness
- not having to create new solutions to problems that can be solved quickly
What mental biases can get us into trouble?
-confirmation bias
-justification of effort
-postdecision dissonance
(all can become self-defeating, harmful, or incorrect)
What is a person’s biggest blindspot?
-believing they are free of biases, but yet noticing the biases of other people
