A02 coincidence and probability

Question 1

What are the 4 sections for the evaluation of the role of coincidence

Answer 1

The illusion if causality may have an adaptive significance
Illusion of connection
Illusion of control
General cognitive ability

Question 2

Talk about illusion if causality may have adaptive significance

Answer 2

Causal thinking can be adaptive for instance eating a mushroom could be harmful

But this can lead to type 1 errors (a false negative rejecting the null hypothesis when it’s true) (mushrooms are deadly)

Such type 1 errors are tolerated to avoid type 2 errors (mushrooms aren’t deadly)

Question 3

Who tested illusion of connection

Answer 3

Brugger et al

Question 4

What did brugger et al do and find

Answer 4

Argues that it’s an adaptive advantage aswell as illusion of causality to see things that aren’t there (seeing lion behind bushes that isn’t actually there is better than missing one)

This ability may cause creativity and creativity is found to be linked with paranormal beliefs thalbourne found

Question 5

Who tested illusion of control

Answer 5

Whitson and galinsky

Question 6

What did Whitson and galinsky do and find

Answer 6

Illusion of control was experimentally manipulated.

When Control levels decreased, Pps detected patterns where there were non and formed false correlations between unrelated events.

Question 7

Conclusion for illusions of control

Answer 7

Supports explanations that illusion if control may increase chances if believing in psi phenomenon

Question 8

Who tested general cognitive ability for role of coincidence

Answer 8

Jones et al
Evans
Wiseman and watt

Question 9

What did Jones te al do and find

Answer 9

Findings went against the explanation that believers had worse cognitive abilities

Question 10

What did evans find and do

Answer 10

Amongst scientists, belief can be high (67%) on esp

Question 11

What did Wiseman and watt do and say

Answer 11

Believes and non believers only differ in syllogistic reasoning not general cognitive ability

Question 12

What are the 4 sections for the role of probability judgments

Answer 12

Contrasting research evidence
Correlation is not cause
Cognitive ability
Not misjudgment, simply a different heuristic

Question 13

Who tested contrasting research evidence?

Answer 13

Blackmore

Question 14

What did Blackmore do and find

Answer 14

Didn’t find difference between believers and non believers in terms of their probability judgments

Question 15

Conclusion for contrasting research evidence

Answer 15

Difference could be due to other studies using a general scale to judge whether Pps believed in esp. But Blackmore simply used one question

Question 16

Talk a about Correlation isn’t cause

Answer 16

Link between probability and paranormal beliefs but this doesn’t prove causation that misjudgment of probability causes paranormal beliefs

Question 17

Who tested cognitive ability may explain the link between probability misjudgment and paranormal beliefs

Answer 17

Musch and ehrenberg

Question 18

What did musch and ehrenberg do and find

Answer 18

Found cognitive ability reduced the performance difference between believers and non believers on probability judgement tasks to zero

Question 19

Conclusion for cognitive ability in terms cognitive ability for role of probability judgements

Answer 19

Poor probability judgements are due to low cognitive ability rather than directly causing a tendency to believe in psi phenomena

Question 20

Who tested not misjudgment, simply a different heuristic in terms of role of probability

Answer 20

Kahneman and Tversky

Question 21

What did kahneman and tversky do and find

Answer 21

Probability misjudgment can alternatively be explained in terms of failing to understand heuristics, such as representativeness

Question 22

What are the 2 sections superstitious behaviour and magical thinking

Answer 22

Explanations for superstitious behaviour

Explanations for magical thinking

Question 23

What are the 4 sections for explanations for superstitious behaviour

Answer 23

Type 1 and 2 errors

Behaviourist explanation

Illusion of control

Question 24

What are superstitions

Answer 24

Beliefs tgat aren’t based on reason or knowledge such as believing that number 7 is lucky

Question 25

Talk about type 1 errors

Answer 25

Superstitions arise from making unjustified causal links

As stated previously, we have a preference for making causal links between 2 unrelated events for adaptive reasons

So it’s better to assume causality between unrelated events that co-occur (type 1 errors) than to miss a genuine error (type 2 errors)

Question 26

Who came up with the behaviourist explanation for superstitious behaviour

Answer 26

Skinner

Question 27

What did Skinner sat about the behaviourist explanation

Answer 27

Superstitions develop through operant conditioning, where an accidental stimulus-response link is learned

Question 28

What are the 2 components for the learning process with regard to behaviourist explanations of superstitious behaviour

Answer 28

Superstition sis acquired through operant conditioning

Superstitions are maintained through negative reinforcement - every time you repeat the superstitious behaviour (don’t walk under ladder) anxiety is reduced, thus the superstitious belief is reinforced

Question 29

Who came up with the behaviourist explanation for superstitious behaviour

Answer 29

Skinner

Question 30

What did Skinner say about the behaviourist explanation in terms of superstitious behaviour

Answer 30

As states before superstitions develop through operant conditioning where an accidental stimulus-response links learned.

There are 2 components to this operant conditioning
1
Superstitions is acquired through operant conditioning
2
Superstition is maintained through negative reinforcement - every time you repeat the superstitious behaviour (e.g. Don’t walk under the ladder) anxiety is reduced, thus the superstitions belief is reinforced

Question 31

Who tested idea of illusion of control

Answer 31

Whitson and galinsky

Question 32

What did Whitson and galinsky find

Answer 32

Superstitions give an illusion if control when people feel they lack control such as in an exam

Question 33

What did Whitson and Galinsky do

Answer 33

Pps asked to recall situations in their lives

One group asked to recall situations where they felt in control other asked to recall when lacking control

Then Pps were given stories involving superstitious behaviour (stamping one foot 3 times befire entering a meeting) and asked to judge how much this affected the eventual outcome of the meeting

Found those who felt lack of control were more likely to believe that superstitious behaviour affected the outcome

Question 34

What are the 5 sections for explanations for magical thinking

Answer 34

Psychodynamic explanation

Dual processing theory

Animism

Nominal realism

Law of contagion

Question 35

What do they mean by magical thinking

Answer 35

Meaning is attached to objects or actions so that they gain special properties. Eg. Magical glove for goal keeper

Question 36

Talk about the psychodynamic explanation for the psychodynamic explanation

Answer 36

Freud claimed that magical thinking is a form of Childlike like thinking and is a defence mechanism in adults

E.g. A person might belive that if they think badly about another person that person would die. It’s a means of coping with anxiety

Question 37

Talk about the dual process theory

Answer 37

Reason why it occurs is because thought process is either intuitive or illogical