A02 coincidence and probability Flashcards
What are the 4 sections for the evaluation of the role of coincidence
The illusion if causality may have an adaptive significance
Illusion of connection
Illusion of control
General cognitive ability
Talk about illusion if causality may have adaptive significance
Causal thinking can be adaptive for instance eating a mushroom could be harmful
But this can lead to type 1 errors (a false negative rejecting the null hypothesis when it’s true) (mushrooms are deadly)
Such type 1 errors are tolerated to avoid type 2 errors (mushrooms aren’t deadly)
Who tested illusion of connection
Brugger et al
What did brugger et al do and find
Argues that it’s an adaptive advantage aswell as illusion of causality to see things that aren’t there (seeing lion behind bushes that isn’t actually there is better than missing one)
This ability may cause creativity and creativity is found to be linked with paranormal beliefs thalbourne found
Who tested illusion of control
Whitson and galinsky
What did Whitson and galinsky do and find
Illusion of control was experimentally manipulated.
When Control levels decreased, Pps detected patterns where there were non and formed false correlations between unrelated events.
Conclusion for illusions of control
Supports explanations that illusion if control may increase chances if believing in psi phenomenon
Who tested general cognitive ability for role of coincidence
Jones et al
Evans
Wiseman and watt
What did Jones te al do and find
Findings went against the explanation that believers had worse cognitive abilities
What did evans find and do
Amongst scientists, belief can be high (67%) on esp
What did Wiseman and watt do and say
Believes and non believers only differ in syllogistic reasoning not general cognitive ability
What are the 4 sections for the role of probability judgments
Contrasting research evidence
Correlation is not cause
Cognitive ability
Not misjudgment, simply a different heuristic
Who tested contrasting research evidence?
Blackmore
What did Blackmore do and find
Didn’t find difference between believers and non believers in terms of their probability judgments
Conclusion for contrasting research evidence
Difference could be due to other studies using a general scale to judge whether Pps believed in esp. But Blackmore simply used one question
Talk a about Correlation isn’t cause
Link between probability and paranormal beliefs but this doesn’t prove causation that misjudgment of probability causes paranormal beliefs
Who tested cognitive ability may explain the link between probability misjudgment and paranormal beliefs
Musch and ehrenberg
What did musch and ehrenberg do and find
Found cognitive ability reduced the performance difference between believers and non believers on probability judgement tasks to zero
Conclusion for cognitive ability in terms cognitive ability for role of probability judgements
Poor probability judgements are due to low cognitive ability rather than directly causing a tendency to believe in psi phenomena
Who tested not misjudgment, simply a different heuristic in terms of role of probability
Kahneman and Tversky
What did kahneman and tversky do and find
Probability misjudgment can alternatively be explained in terms of failing to understand heuristics, such as representativeness
What are the 2 sections superstitious behaviour and magical thinking
Explanations for superstitious behaviour
Explanations for magical thinking
What are the 4 sections for explanations for superstitious behaviour
Type 1 and 2 errors
Behaviourist explanation
Illusion of control
What are superstitions
Beliefs tgat aren’t based on reason or knowledge such as believing that number 7 is lucky
Talk about type 1 errors
Superstitions arise from making unjustified causal links
As stated previously, we have a preference for making causal links between 2 unrelated events for adaptive reasons
So it’s better to assume causality between unrelated events that co-occur (type 1 errors) than to miss a genuine error (type 2 errors)
Who came up with the behaviourist explanation for superstitious behaviour
Skinner
What did Skinner sat about the behaviourist explanation
Superstitions develop through operant conditioning, where an accidental stimulus-response link is learned
What are the 2 components for the learning process with regard to behaviourist explanations of superstitious behaviour
Superstition sis acquired through operant conditioning
Superstitions are maintained through negative reinforcement - every time you repeat the superstitious behaviour (don’t walk under ladder) anxiety is reduced, thus the superstitious belief is reinforced
Who came up with the behaviourist explanation for superstitious behaviour
Skinner
What did Skinner say about the behaviourist explanation in terms of superstitious behaviour
As states before superstitions develop through operant conditioning where an accidental stimulus-response links learned.
There are 2 components to this operant conditioning
1
Superstitions is acquired through operant conditioning
2
Superstition is maintained through negative reinforcement - every time you repeat the superstitious behaviour (e.g. Don’t walk under the ladder) anxiety is reduced, thus the superstitions belief is reinforced
Who tested idea of illusion of control
Whitson and galinsky
What did Whitson and galinsky find
Superstitions give an illusion if control when people feel they lack control such as in an exam
What did Whitson and Galinsky do
Pps asked to recall situations in their lives
One group asked to recall situations where they felt in control other asked to recall when lacking control
Then Pps were given stories involving superstitious behaviour (stamping one foot 3 times befire entering a meeting) and asked to judge how much this affected the eventual outcome of the meeting
Found those who felt lack of control were more likely to believe that superstitious behaviour affected the outcome
What are the 5 sections for explanations for magical thinking
Psychodynamic explanation
Dual processing theory
Animism
Nominal realism
Law of contagion
What do they mean by magical thinking
Meaning is attached to objects or actions so that they gain special properties. Eg. Magical glove for goal keeper
Talk about the psychodynamic explanation for the psychodynamic explanation
Freud claimed that magical thinking is a form of Childlike like thinking and is a defence mechanism in adults
E.g. A person might belive that if they think badly about another person that person would die. It’s a means of coping with anxiety
Talk about the dual process theory
Reason why it occurs is because thought process is either intuitive or illogical
