A01 coincidence and probability judgments Flashcards
What are the 2 sections?
The role of coincidence
The role of probability judgments
What are the 3 sections for the role of coincidence
Illusion of causality
Illusion of control
General cognitive ability
What are these 2 explanations for
Why some people have anomalous xp and beliefs and others don’t
Talk about the illusion of causality
Some people (those who believe in anomalous xp) are probs more likely to assume that such coincidence (e.g. think of a friend and they call or it rain - less obvious) have a causal link where one causes the other.
Talk about illusion of control
Explanations for coincidence mean that people feel they control things that they actually can’t
Who tested illusion of control
Ayeroff and abelson
What did ayeroff and abelson do and find
Believers in psi phenomenon or anomalous xp are more likely to show illusion of control when in a psi task
Who tested general cognitive ability
Gray
What did gray do and find
Found believes have significantly lower leveks of academic performance than sceptics and we’re worse in tests on syllogistic reasoning
Conclusion for general cognitive ability
This means believers probs find it difficult to judge whether a paranormal event in fact has a normal explanation
What are the 3 sections for role of probability judgments
Repetition avoidance
Questions about probability
Conjunction fallacy
What is probability
Likelihood of an event occurring
General info on probability judgmemts
Believers ir sheep are less likely to belive that certain events actually just happen by chance cz they underestimate that probability
So they’re more likely to reject coincidence and accept causal links etc when in fact the events are simply random
Probability reasoning tasks have been used to test this
Who tested report on avoidance
Brugger et al
Talk about repetition avoidance test
Pps asked to produce a string of numbers and the number if repot ions is counted
Repetitions will obviously occur but those who underestimate probability are less likely to produce repetitions
What did brugger et al do and find
That sheep are less likely to produce repetitions
Who tested questions about probability
Blackmore et al
What did Blackmore do and find
Asked how many people would you need at a party to have 50:50 chance that 2 of them will have the same b day but not on the same year.
More goats than sheep got this right
Conclusion for questions about probability
Probability judgments of goats are more a crate than sheep which could help explain why they’re less likely to believe in psi phenomenon or xp anomalous xp
Who tested conjunction (coincidence) fallacy
Rogers et al
What did Rogers et al do and find
Tested probability judgments by giving Pps descriptions of occasions where 2 events Co occur
Pps were asked to indicate the probability of such events Co occurring
Goats were more accurate cz sheep made more coincidence errors than goats. They thought it was a causal link rather than just coincidence
