A01 coincidence and probability judgments

Question 1

What are the 2 sections?

Answer 1

The role of coincidence

The role of probability judgments

Question 2

What are the 3 sections for the role of coincidence

Answer 2

Illusion of causality
Illusion of control
General cognitive ability

Question 3

What are these 2 explanations for

Answer 3

Why some people have anomalous xp and beliefs and others don’t

Question 4

Talk about the illusion of causality

Answer 4

Some people (those who believe in anomalous xp) are probs more likely to assume that such coincidence (e.g. think of a friend and they call or it rain - less obvious) have a causal link where one causes the other.

Question 5

Talk about illusion of control

Answer 5

Explanations for coincidence mean that people feel they control things that they actually can’t

Question 6

Who tested illusion of control

Answer 6

Ayeroff and abelson

Question 7

What did ayeroff and abelson do and find

Answer 7

Believers in psi phenomenon or anomalous xp are more likely to show illusion of control when in a psi task

Question 8

Who tested general cognitive ability

Answer 8

Gray

Question 9

What did gray do and find

Answer 9

Found believes have significantly lower leveks of academic performance than sceptics and we’re worse in tests on syllogistic reasoning

Question 10

Conclusion for general cognitive ability

Answer 10

This means believers probs find it difficult to judge whether a paranormal event in fact has a normal explanation

Question 11

What are the 3 sections for role of probability judgments

Answer 11

Repetition avoidance
Questions about probability
Conjunction fallacy

Question 12

What is probability

Answer 12

Likelihood of an event occurring

Question 13

General info on probability judgmemts

Answer 13

Believers ir sheep are less likely to belive that certain events actually just happen by chance cz they underestimate that probability

So they’re more likely to reject coincidence and accept causal links etc when in fact the events are simply random

Probability reasoning tasks have been used to test this

Question 14

Who tested report on avoidance

Answer 14

Brugger et al

Question 15

Talk about repetition avoidance test

Answer 15

Pps asked to produce a string of numbers and the number if repot ions is counted

Repetitions will obviously occur but those who underestimate probability are less likely to produce repetitions

Question 16

What did brugger et al do and find

Answer 16

That sheep are less likely to produce repetitions

Question 17

Who tested questions about probability

Answer 17

Blackmore et al

Question 18

What did Blackmore do and find

Answer 18

Asked how many people would you need at a party to have 50:50 chance that 2 of them will have the same b day but not on the same year.

More goats than sheep got this right

Question 19

Conclusion for questions about probability

Answer 19

Probability judgments of goats are more a crate than sheep which could help explain why they’re less likely to believe in psi phenomenon or xp anomalous xp

Question 20

Who tested conjunction (coincidence) fallacy

Answer 20

Rogers et al

Question 21

What did Rogers et al do and find

Answer 21

Tested probability judgments by giving Pps descriptions of occasions where 2 events Co occur

Pps were asked to indicate the probability of such events Co occurring

Goats were more accurate cz sheep made more coincidence errors than goats. They thought it was a causal link rather than just coincidence