7 - Uncertainty Management in Projects Flashcards
What can sometimes be a positive product of uncertainty?
Opportunity
What happens to risk and cost to fix risk through the project life cycle?
As the project ages the risk decreases however the cost to rectify any event increases.
What 3 aspects are involved in the risk framework?
Risk Identification
Risk Quantification
Response Control
How is risk identified?
Key risk symptoms
External sources
TCQ analysis
Key Assumptions
What are the tools for qualitative quatification?
-Failure Mode Effect Analysis
Risk = Liklihood x severity x hideability
- Risk matrix (Liklihood vs severity)
What are the tools for quantative quatification?
Cost and Quality: -Expected Value -Sensitivity Analysis -Monte Carlo Simulation Time: -PERT Analysis (Programme evaluation and review technique)
What is expected value and how is it worked out?
The possible outcome multiplied by its probability.
These are compared for decisions. Can use decision trees.
What is sensitivity analysis?
Essentially Expected value but also with an optimistic/pessimistic value? Eg +- 10%
What is a monte carlo simulation?
Comprehensive simulation that requires a computer, typically using speadsheet software. Considers ranges of values and distributions per category.
What is PERT analysis?
PERT deals with the liklihood that an expected time will have a degree of error.
What is the equation for expected time?
(Optimistic time + 4 Most Probable time + Pessimistic time)/6
What is the equation for the variance of activity estimates?
(Pessimistic time - Optimistic time)/6)^2
What are the steps for PERT analysis?
Calculate variance of activity Calculate variance of each path Calculate standard deviation for path Calculate z for path Find probability of path from table
How is Z caluclated in PERT?
(specified time - expected time) / standard deviation of path
List some aspects of response control?
SWOT (Strength, weakness, opportunities, threats)
Contigency/reserves
Corrective measures
