5.3.15 Cross impact analysis Flashcards
conjunction
C2 [C or U] ( formal conjuncture, /kənˈdʒʌŋk.tʃər/ ) the situation in which events or conditions combine or happen together:
An unfortunate conjunction of circumstances led to his downfall.
There is a team of writers working in conjunction (with each other) on the book.
The company produced many thousands of copies of the game and used it for promotional gifts in conjunction with its 100th anniversary.
icosahedron
In geometry, an icosahedron (/ˌaɪkɵsəˈhiːdrən/ or /aɪˌkɒsəˈhiːdrən/) is a polyhedron with 20 faces. The name comes from Greek είκοσι (eíkosi), meaning “twenty”, and έδρα (hédra), meaning “seat”. The plural can be either “icosahedra” (-/drə/) or “icosahedrons”.
In the game, the die was an icosahedron with numbers written on the faces to correspond to the probability that that face would be turned up.
exert
[T] to use something such as authority, power, influence, etc. in order to make something happen:
If you were to exert your influence they might change their decision.
Some managers exert considerable pressure on their staff to work extra hours without being paid.
This ability provided players a mechanism for exerting “policy,” a means for them to bring about a desired future by thinking through possible cross impacts.
tertiary adjective UK /ˈtɜː.ʃər.i/ US /ˈtɝː.ʃi.er-/
formal relating to a third level or stage
The best strategy, for example, might be to invest in a secondary or tertiary event that would produce a favourable cross impact on the ultimately desired event.
secondary
adjective (COMING AFTER) developing from something similar that existed earlier
The best strategy, for example, might be to invest in a secondary or tertiary event that would produce a favorable cross impact on the ultimately desired event.
a priori
relating to an argument that suggests the probable effects of a known cause, or using general principles to suggest likely effects
The cards were given an a priori probability of occurrence, based largely on Gordon and Helmer’s judgment.
استدلال) از علت به معلول)
contentious
causing or likely to cause disagreement:
a contentious decision/policy/issue/subject
She has some rather contentious views on education.
Bonnicksen at Texas A&M University (USA), in a process called EZ-IMPACT, used the cross-impact approach in a workshop gaming application to explore policy options among contentious parties.
antecedent
formal someone or something existing or happening before, especially as the cause or origin of something existing or happening later:
Charles Babbage’s mechanical calculating engines were the antecedents of the modern computer.
Many people feel a great curiosity to find out about their antecedents.
A single event, such as the production of power from the first atomic reactor, was made possible by a complex history of antecedent scientific, technological, political, and economic “happenings.”
precedent
[C] an action, situation, or decision that has already happened and can be used as a reason why a similar action or decision should be performed or taken:
There are several precedents for promoting people who don’t have formal qualifications.
Some politicians fear that agreeing to the concession would set a dangerous precedent.
In its turn as a precedent, the production of energy from the first atomic reactor influenced many events and developments following it.
cross-impact
An event without a predecessor that made it more
or less likely or that influenced its form is hard to imagine––or to imagine an event that, after occurring, left no mark. This interrelationship between events and developments is called “cross-impact.”
pertinent
relating directly to the subject being considered:
a pertinent question/remark
Chapter One is pertinent to the post-war period.
However, the inclusion of events that are not pertinent can complicate the analysis unnecessarily.
elegant
An elegant idea, plan, or solution is clever but simple, and therefore attractive.
In the other more elegant and frequently used approach, the initial probabilities assume that the experts making the probability judgments have in mind a view of the future that includes the set of events and their likelihoods’.
