4.5

Question 1

Define Bayes Theorem

Answer 1

Revising prob(s) when new info is obtained

• provides a means for making these prob calculatoins
• always applicable for computing posterior probabilities of an event and its compliemnt
• used extensively in decsion analysis
• the prior prob are often subjective estimates provided by a decision maker

Question 2

what are the steps in the prob revision process

Answer 2

1. Prior Probabilities
2. New information
3. Application of Bayes Theorem
4. Posterior Probabilities

Question 3

What approaches can you take for Bayes Theorem

Answer 3

1. Formula approach
2. Tabular Approach
3. tree diagram ?